It's Over, People
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Author Topic: It's Over, People  (Read 3459 times)
mondale84
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« on: September 19, 2012, 05:28:13 PM »
« edited: September 19, 2012, 05:33:36 PM by mondale84 »
Every credible (and even some biased) poll shows Obama with obvious leads.

This is the current map:



...and I'm pretty sure the Dakotas, South Carolina and Texas are going to be tossups by Nov. 6.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2012, 05:32:42 PM »
I'd like to see more polls from Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, but it looks like Obama is ahead comfortably in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Wisconsin at the moment. Those four states are all lean Democrat right now. And that's horrible news for Mitt.

I wish we could get more polls from Arizona, Georgia and Indiana too. It's hard to tell where exactly those states are at the moment, but I think they're closer to toss-ups than lean Romneys.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2012, 05:45:32 PM »
fwiw Obama has really crashed on 538 the last week.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2012, 05:55:37 PM »
It's not over. It's bad right now for Mitt, but it is not over.
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2012, 05:56:20 PM »
Quote from: Thomas D on September 19, 2012, 05:55:37 PM
It's not over. It's bad right now for Mitt, but it is not over.

And it's better than Lief or mondale are saying, for that matter. Not that that's a high bar to overcome.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2012, 05:58:54 PM »
What am I saying that you disagree with? Obama has clear leads in Virginia, Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin. You can't really dispute that.
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2012, 06:01:28 PM »

That's in part because Silver's model is still accounting for effects from a convention bounce that, while large, has so far seemed to have dissipated faster than expected.
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2012, 06:01:54 PM »
It's not over till Wolf Blitzer says it's over.
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afleitch
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2012, 06:07:21 PM »
Quote from: Nathan on September 19, 2012, 06:01:28 PM

That's in part because Silver's model is still accounting for effects from a convention bounce that, while large, has so far seemed to have dissipated faster than expected.

It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few days as Obama's plus 5, plus 5, plus 7 on today's national polls (or -1 or tied with Rasmussen just to be fair...) Nate has recently suggested that this should see the model start pushing Obama up again.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2012, 06:13:46 PM »
Quote from: mondale84 on September 19, 2012, 05:28:13 PM
I'm pretty sure the Dakotas, South Carolina and Texas are going to be tossups by Nov. 6.

That's as likely as... well actually it's as likely as nothing.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2012, 06:15:42 PM »
*facepalm*
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2012, 06:16:30 PM »
Don't say it's over until it's really over.
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MagneticFree
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2012, 06:40:30 PM »
This thread deserves a locking for stupidity.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2012, 06:53:59 PM »
Don't discount NE, WV, and Bill Clinton's effect in the south!
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Donerail
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2012, 08:08:02 PM »
Congratulations, Mondale! You win the forum award for 'trolling via map'!
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mondale84
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« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2012, 08:11:28 PM »
Quote from: IDS Legislator SJoyceFla on September 19, 2012, 08:08:02 PM
Congratulations, Mondale! You win the forum award for 'trolling via map'!

How am I "trolling"? That map is completely reasonable... Roll Eyes

...if anything I'm being kind to Romney...
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J. J.
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2012, 10:44:57 PM »
2012's version of "Mypalfish."
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2012, 02:54:48 AM »
Hey mondale, what about Obama's ceiling of ~290-340 EVs?
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sentinel
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« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2012, 08:57:29 AM »
The moment you discount the opposition is the moment they win.
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mondale84
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« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2012, 09:11:39 AM »
Quote from: Resign, Inks! on September 20, 2012, 02:54:48 AM
Hey mondale, what about Obama's ceiling of ~290-340 EVs?

That was before the convention and 47% comments... Roll Eyes
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opebo
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« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2012, 11:16:20 AM »
Quote from: mondale84 on September 19, 2012, 08:11:28 PM
Quote from: IDS Legislator SJoyceFla on September 19, 2012, 08:08:02 PM
Congratulations, Mondale! You win the forum award for 'trolling via map'!

How am I "trolling"? That map is completely reasonable... Roll Eyes

...if anything I'm being kind to Romney...

It was a little bit unreasonable.  Assuming a further but 'likely' collapse for Romney it could look like this:



Anything beyond that is just exceedingly unlikely.
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Donerail
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« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2012, 01:56:56 PM »
Quote from: mondale84 on September 19, 2012, 08:11:28 PM
Quote from: IDS Legislator SJoyceFla on September 19, 2012, 08:08:02 PM
Congratulations, Mondale! You win the forum award for 'trolling via map'!

How am I "trolling"? That map is completely reasonable... Roll Eyes

...if anything I'm being kind to Romney...

See, there's a thing about convention bounces. They deflate.
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Northeast Rep Snowball
hiboby1998
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« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2012, 03:00:13 PM »
Look I doubt that it will be that much of a landslide, as well as I don't think that Obama is trying for a landslide. I think also that this the same problem that Palin brought, but it was still close, and it will deflate.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #23 on: September 20, 2012, 03:37:43 PM »
Obama's convention bounce hasn't really deflated though. If anything, his state by state numbers are stronger this week than they were last week. Rasmussen and Gallup national tracking polls have shown a "deflation", but those are just two data points. All the other evidence shows his lead holding steady.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #24 on: September 20, 2012, 05:09:28 PM »

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He's an optimist!
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