CO, Ras: Romney leads by 2

[5280]

Clinton lost Colorado his second time around, despite winning by a larger margin nationwide. It also swing against Bush in 2004. Maybe Colorado is just hostile to incumbents?

Probably, I also think CO is a bellwether state.  Not sure how Clinton lost CO in 1996, Bob Dole wasn't the most exciting candidate, but he was from Kansas.

[Person Man]

Clinton lost Colorado his second time around, despite winning by a larger margin nationwide. It also swing against Bush in 2004. Maybe Colorado is just hostile to incumbents?

Probably, I also think CO is a bellwether state.  Not sure how Clinton lost CO in 1996, Bob Dole wasn't the most exciting candidate, but he was from Kansas.

Probably had good turnout in Greeley, La Junta, Julesburg and places like that.
At either rate, there are two possible narratives, Colorado is still trending D and still should hold but by a tighter margin but Colorado doesn't like incumbents or Colorado is coming home, as is Connecticut and New Hampshire to an extent. I personally think the latter. Outside of El Paso county and maybe parts of the Plains, there just isn't a place for Privacy Voters in the GOP, even if someone with a moderate past is running in a state with a libertarian streak.

[Vosem]

Interesting...

Clinton lost Colorado his second time around, despite winning by a larger margin nationwide. It also swing against Bush in 2004. Maybe Colorado is just hostile to incumbents?

I can actually see that...

[Person Man]

Interesting...

Clinton lost Colorado his second time around, despite winning by a larger margin nationwide. It also swing against Bush in 2004. Maybe Colorado is just hostile to incumbents?

I can actually see that...

Libertarian Streak?

[Vosem]

Interesting...

Clinton lost Colorado his second time around, despite winning by a larger margin nationwide. It also swing against Bush in 2004. Maybe Colorado is just hostile to incumbents?

I can actually see that...

Libertarian Streak?

Mmhmm. The whole Mountain West has one, but you generally can't see it because the area votes so Republican. Now that Colorado's become a swing state...

[old timey villain]

I see a pattern in a lot of western swing states that highlights libertarian tendencies.

1) Republican is on office. Many think he is restricting social freedoms.

2) State (Colorado) swings towards the Democrat in the next election

3) Democrat is on office. Many think he is restricting economic freedoms.

4) State (Colorado) swings Republican.

The moral of the story is that voters in western states aren't as loyal to a party as people are back east. They care more about issues/values and vote accordingly, which accounts for the wild swings.

[old timey villain]

One more thing:

Wild swings in eastern states usually signify a realignment. Wild swings in western states are often just swings.

[Devils30]

Does anyone know what % of the white vote each candidate got in this poll?

I think states like CO are trending Dem in the long term (very high education rate, growing latino population) but the idea of CO being 1% more GOP than the nation isnt far fetched as it was only like 1-2% more Dem than Obama's national margin in 2008. McCain also put all his $$ into PA and away from CO, NV the final weeks. That being said, Obama's been slightly above his national numbers in PPP here and both him and Bennet overperformed polls in 2008, 2010 by about 4 points. In BOTH, the dems outperformed Rasmussen by 5. PPP has actually been the best pollster there.

2008 final polls: PPP 54-44 Obama, Rasmussen 51-47 Obama, result- Obama 54-45
2010 final polls: PPP Buck 49-48,  Rasmussen Buck 50-46, result 48-47 Bennet

[5280]

Does anyone know what % of the white vote each candidate got in this poll?

I think states like CO are trending Dem in the long term (very high education rate, growing latino population) but the idea of CO being 1% more GOP than the nation isnt far fetched as it was only like 1-2% more Dem than Obama's national margin in 2008. McCain also put all his $$ into PA and away from CO, NV the final weeks. That being said, Obama's been slightly above his national numbers in PPP here and both him and Bennet overperformed polls in 2008, 2010 by about 4 points. In BOTH, the dems outperformed Rasmussen by 5. PPP has actually been the best pollster there.

2008 final polls: PPP 54-44 Obama, Rasmussen 51-47 Obama, result- Obama 54-45
2010 final polls: PPP Buck 49-48,  Rasmussen Buck 50-46, result 48-47 Bennet

Those were joke candidates and were harped for their social issues.  Romney is a different ball game.  Enthusiasm for the GOP will be higher than 2010.

[Person Man]

Does anyone know what % of the white vote each candidate got in this poll?

I think states like CO are trending Dem in the long term (very high education rate, growing latino population) but the idea of CO being 1% more GOP than the nation isnt far fetched as it was only like 1-2% more Dem than Obama's national margin in 2008. McCain also put all his $$ into PA and away from CO, NV the final weeks. That being said, Obama's been slightly above his national numbers in PPP here and both him and Bennet overperformed polls in 2008, 2010 by about 4 points. In BOTH, the dems outperformed Rasmussen by 5. PPP has actually been the best pollster there.

2008 final polls: PPP 54-44 Obama, Rasmussen 51-47 Obama, result- Obama 54-45
2010 final polls: PPP Buck 49-48,  Rasmussen Buck 50-46, result 48-47 Bennet

Those were joke candidates and were harped for their social issues.  Romney is a different ball game.  Enthusiasm for the GOP will be higher than 2010.

That would be a Republican miracle anywhere. You aren't going to outperform 2010. If this was 2010, I think Romney would be ahead by 5 or 6 right now and we would more or less have a R mirror of 2008.

[Person Man]

Does anyone know what % of the white vote each candidate got in this poll?

I think states like CO are trending Dem in the long term (very high education rate, growing latino population) but the idea of CO being 1% more GOP than the nation isnt far fetched as it was only like 1-2% more Dem than Obama's national margin in 2008. McCain also put all his $$ into PA and away from CO, NV the final weeks. That being said, Obama's been slightly above his national numbers in PPP here and both him and Bennet overperformed polls in 2008, 2010 by about 4 points. In BOTH, the dems outperformed Rasmussen by 5. PPP has actually been the best pollster there.

2008 final polls: PPP 54-44 Obama, Rasmussen 51-47 Obama, result- Obama 54-45
2010 final polls: PPP Buck 49-48,  Rasmussen Buck 50-46, result 48-47 Bennet

I would be willing to bet that it would be Obama +3 for a PVI of  .5% R.

[Eraserhead]

The ARG and Survey USA polls has Romney up too, but the Democrat-leaning samples obscured that happy reality.

No, they didn't. You don't get to magically decide what polls should be showing. The polls show what they show.

[Mister Twister]

Colorado has a lot of wealthy independents so Romney should be a good fit for Colorado compared to say, Ohio. Still, Rasmussen was off by 5-6 points in Colorado in both 2008 AND 2010 so it's proabably accurate to say Obama is actually up 3-4

[Person Man]

AND 2006. Though 2004 was pretty accurate...

[5280]

Colorado has a lot of wealthy independents so Romney should be a good fit for Colorado compared to say, Ohio. Still, Rasmussen was off by 5-6 points in Colorado in both 2008 AND 2010 so it's proabably accurate to say Obama is actually up 3-4

You can only twist the numbers to your favor, much less, polish a turd to make it pretty.  It's still a turd.

[Mister Twister]

Colorado has a lot of wealthy independents so Romney should be a good fit for Colorado compared to say, Ohio. Still, Rasmussen was off by 5-6 points in Colorado in both 2008 AND 2010 so it's proabably accurate to say Obama is actually up 3-4

You can only twist the numbers to your favor, much less, polish a turd to make it pretty.  It's still a turd.

At least if I polish the turd, it becomes pretty. If I polish you, you remain ugly and stupid.