Why there is no chance whatsoever that Huckabee runs for president ever again

[Mr. Morden]

I'm going to give this a standalone thread, because I keep seeing people claim that Huckabee might run for prez again in 2016, and I keep making the same argument against it and it gets ignored, so I'll give it its own thread.  Here are the things that have changed since Huck's 2008 campaign, building on some of the arguments I made here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=159139.msg3421819#msg3421819

Huckabee keeps talking like he's lost interest in running for national office

There are several examples of this, but the way that Huck dissed the main forum for accruing national media exposure in the primaries, the debates, sticks out in my mind:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/20/AR2011022003760.html

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Huckabee granted clemency to Maurice Clemmons, who later murdered four police officers in 2009

We've been over this several times, but while I actually think Huckabee's actions with respect to Clemmons were defensible at the time, they've retroactively become political poison.  This is a pretty big skeleton that's been added to Huck's closet since his 2008 race.

Huckabee defended then-US Senate candidate Fay Boozman in 1998 when Boozman made the exact same gaffe as Todd Akin, in suggesting that rape victims rarely get pregnant….Not only that, but he later appointed Boozman as director of Arkansas's Department of Health

Let me repeat that.  Boozman said exactly the same thing that Akin would say years later about rape victims not getting pregnant.  It didn't go viral nationally like Akin's gaffe did, because there was no Twitter or Youtube back in 1998.  But it was definitely an issue in Arkansas.  Huckabee not just defended the guy, but put him in charge of the state's Health Department:

link

AFAIK, this never came up in Huck's 2008 race, but it would surely be a very big deal in a potential 2016 race, post-Akin.  Huckabee would be crucified for this.  Not only that, but it would be an excuse to resurrect the various Huckabee social issues "gaffes" of the past, like his comments about quarantining AIDS patients.  Do you think someone who doesn't sound like he's that interested in the presidency anymore is going to want to put himself through that?

Huckabee was a more staunch defender of Akin than anyone else on the national scene, in a way that suggested he doesn't care about his own future political viability anymore

Huck really went all in on defending Akin, so the the controversy over Boozman would be amplified all that much more.

All of this is political poison.  Huckabee is not a fool.  He must realize that if he runs for president again, his opponents and the media have far more ammunition to use against him than they did in 2008, to the point where it's just not worth it to try another run.  I just don't see it.

Oh, and one last thing:

Huckabee was leading or ties for the lead in all the 2012 GOP primary polls back in 2011, but still didn't run.....he isn't going to be polling that high this time

Even when the polling looked quite favorable to Huckabee in 2011, he still didn't run.  He had the chance to go up against the weakest field of primary opponents the party has seen in living memory, and he didn't take it.  In this coming cycle, his poll numbers will presumably be relatively weaker, because you have folks like Christie, Rubio, and Ryan coming in, plus competition on the social conservative front in Iowa from Santorum.  Even if Huckabee was still interested in the presidency, why run now, when he could have made his move in 2012?

[Mister Mets]

I'm not a fan of Huckabee, but I disagree here.

In the event that President Obama is reelected, Paul Ryan starts out as the 2016 Primary frontrunner. And Huckabee is well-positioned as the Anti-Ryan. He would have a semi-credible claim to the "next in line" mantle. Coming from Arkansas, he has regional appeal in the South, and his work as a minister allows him to tap into a religious base. He's more socially conservative than fiscally conservative, so he can fight Ryan on that level, appealing to voters who like right-wing government intervention.

The Fay Boozman story will be problematic, although it'll be less of an issue for the primary, especially if he can deal with it early enough. Boozman died a few years ago, so it's going to be difficult to bash a candidate's dead friend. Fay's brother is a Senator, and presumably capable of defending his legacy.

There are some advantages to supporting Akin, who still has a shot at winning statewide office. If so Huckabee will likely have the full-throated support of a very conservative Senator.

The Maurice Clemmons tragedy is a bit more complicated. Huckabee could try to blame the parole board.

I kinda hope you're right, but I think there's a good shot Huckabee will try again.

[Mr. Morden]

In the event that President Obama is reelected, Paul Ryan starts out as the 2016 Primary frontrunner. And Huckabee is well-positioned as the Anti-Ryan. He would have a semi-credible claim to the "next in line" mantle. Coming from Arkansas, he has regional appeal in the South, and his work as a minister allows him to tap into a religious base. He's more socially conservative than fiscally conservative, so he can fight Ryan on that level, appealing to voters who like right-wing government intervention.

All of that would have been more true in 2012 than 2016.  He had a double digit lead in the Iowa polls in early 2011, up until he announced that he wasn't running.  This time around, he'd be competing with Santorum for at least part of his coalition.

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I don't think that describes how the dynamic on these things works.  It's the media that would be bringing up Boozman, not the other candidates.  After the Akin story blew up, and virtually the entire GOP disowned him over his remarks, the media would have a pretty obvious hook to bring up this parallel story up with Boozman.  They would keep asking Huckabee about rape and abortion, and how he could possibly think that someone who thinks that rape victims don't get pregnant should be put in charge of a state's health department.

Then they'd start in on Huckabee's GOP rivals, as well as anyone who endorsed him, asking the same sorts of questions, and whether they want to distance themselves from Huck over this, both his appointment of Boozman, and his defense of Akin.  It would also provide an excuse to resurrect some of the controversy on Huckabee's wackier ideas on social issues, like quarantining AIDS patients.

The whole thing would be an embarrassment for the GOP.  It would only serve to tarnish Huckabee's image.  I don't think he wants that.  If he desperately wanted to be president, then he might run anyway, even realizing that this might happen.  But every indication, even going back to his 2008 campaign, is that he's not desperate to be president.  All he really seems to want is respect as a serious pol.....to be able to "sit at the adults' table".  All throughout his deliberations about running in 2012, that was the only context in which he seemed to entertain the idea of running again.  But at this point, another run would likely lead to him being taken less seriously, not more.  I think he's smart enough to realize that, which is why he won't run.  He's already being treated seriously enough within the party as a media personality, and another run would only jeopardize that.