Philadelphia Inquirer polls for PA & NJ: Obama dominating

[Tender Branson]

PA:

Obama 50, Romney 39

NJ:

Obama 51, Romney 37

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/Poll_Obama_widens_lead_in_Pa.html

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/Poll_Obama_has_commanding_lead_in_NJ.html

[pa2011]

Hard to believe that during the  Bush years, New Jersey was often viewed as a swing state and Bush competed for it.  As for PA, wish this poll had regional breakdowns. Curious if Obamas lead is all in Southeast or if he's also somewhat stabilized his weak standing in Southwest Pa, which could also offer some clues about how he will perform in eastern Ohio.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Hard to believe that during the  Bush years, New Jersey was often viewed as a swing state and Bush competed for it.  As for PA, wish this poll had regional breakdowns. Curious if Obamas lead is all in Southeast or if he's also somewhat stabilized his weak standing in Southwest Pa, which could also offer some clues about how he will perform in eastern Ohio.

I think it's a combination of southwest PA "coming home" so to speak and the fact that Romney is clearly not contesting the state... which hasn't happened in... well, I don't know.  When was the last time the parties did not contest PA?

[pa2011]

Yea, hard to believe how the GOP can compete long-term in the electoral college if they can't find candidates who can at least contest Pennsylvania, especially with Virginia and Florida apparently becoming more Democratic each cycle now.

[J. J.]

Yea, hard to believe how the GOP can compete long-term in the electoral college if they can't find candidates who can at least contest Pennsylvania, especially with Virginia and Florida apparently becoming more Democratic each cycle now.

It could be a symptom of polarization.

[Lief 🗽]

Yes, a polarization that favors the Democrats.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Excellent news !

[J. J.]

Yes, a polarization that favors the Democrats.

In some states.  For example, MO should have been a swing state, but it very solidly for Romney.

[Lief 🗽]

Yes, that's one example, but overall this polarization favors Democrats.

[Chaddyr23]

Yes, a polarization that favors the Democrats.

In some states.  For example, MO should have been a swing state, but it very solidly for Romney.

Ya'll can have WV and MO! We'll take VA and NC!

[Lambsbread]

The Inquirer is notoriously left-leaning.

[Tender Branson]

The Inquirer is notoriously left-leaning.

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[J. J.]

Yes, a polarization that favors the Democrats.

In some states.  For example, MO should have been a swing state, but it very solidly for Romney.

Ya'll can have WV and MO! We'll take VA and NC!

Obama won't be taking NC.  VA is still up in the air.

[JFK-Democrat]

Obama will win NC again.

[J. J.]

Obama will win NC again.

I've been looking at the polling, and it is doubtful that he will.

[Person Man]

At this juncture, I think North Carolina is a tough sell, but it hasn't swung yet.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Romney will take NC by a couple of points... but his small lead is indicative of a lead for Obama overall.  Look at the polls coming out of the Democratic base states.  Huge leads in the Northeast, looking like he's going to hit 60% in CA, NY, IL, etc.  Romney needs to have NC in the bag before we can start talking like this is a neck-and-neck race.  Right now, Obama loses NC and IN and nothing else off the map.  That's 332 for him. 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Yes, a polarization that favors the Democrats.

In some states.  For example, MO should have been a swing state, but it very solidly for Romney.

Ya'll can have WV and MO! We'll take VA and NC!

Ideally we can have all the states.

[JFK-Democrat]

The polls show a slight Romney lead but I feel Obama will have a better ground game, plus the demographic trend is in Obama's favor. Either way this state will be won by less than 2 points.

[Lief 🗽]

Certainly we can all agree that Obama's odds in Ohio are better than Romney's odds in North Carolina.

[J. J.]

Certainly we can all agree that Obama's odds in Ohio are better than Romney's odds in North Carolina.

No, not based on the current polling.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Philadelphia Inquirer on 2012-09-13

Summary: D: 50%, R: 39%, I: 0%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: New Jersey President by Philadelphia Inquirer on 2012-09-13

Summary: D: 51%, R: 37%, I: 0%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Likely Voter]

Its pretty amazing that Dems dont have to spend on PA, MI and other "blue states" this election. I dont know if it is a function of Romney or the changing polarization but the net result is that Obama has a much bigger EV baseline. There's a good chuck of  of states where Gore, Kerry and Obama (08) spent money which are now considered safe D.

[Tender Branson]

Obama will win NC again.

I've been looking at the polling, and it is doubtful that he will.

Though Obama polls better at this stage than in 2008, when there were polls in NC that had McCain ahead by up to 10, or in SUSA's case up by 20.