So what does a Romney collapse look like?

[pbrower2a]

Blank map that you are welcome to use. You just don't see them often enough.

Now for the one of my use:

Let's start with the most basic fact: that with the arguable exception of Wisconsin, every state that has not gone to any Republican nominee for President in any election after 1988 is now safe. Barack Obama won every one of these states by at least 10%, and I can put those states and DC (with 232 electoral votes) in deep red. After the Republicans have pulled ads out of Michigan and Pennsylvania this seems safe.

Next come two states in middle-red: Nevada  and New Mexico (which both went by overpowering margins for President Obama), and New Hampshire, which seems to be slipping away from Romney. Those states have 'only' 14 electoral votes, but note that only five states  have so many as 14 electoral votes. That is now 247 for President Obama. At this point Mitt Romney must win Florida.

In pink are two states -- Iowa and Wisconsin -- that largely move together. They carry 16 electoral votes together. OK, you tell me -- they went different ways in 2004. But they didn't go their different ways by much -- 10.1 thousand and 11.4 thousand. Move the percentage margin from Iowa to Wisconsin and Dubya wins Wisconsin; move the absolute margin from Wisconsin to Iowa and Kerry wins Iowa. Wisconsin has the Veep nominee for the GOP, so that should create some issue of vanity...but probably not enough to win. With the states in any shade of red, President Obama is up to 263 electoral votes. An Obama win of any one of Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, or Virginia clinches.  

[opebo]

I guess something like this could occur if some really horrifying scandal or something like that came to light.  Or if Romney forgot to close the barn door at the first debate..

Obviously very unlikely.

This, however, is the real blowout, and it very well could happen:

[5280]

Judging by your post, you WANT Romney to collapse.

[opebo]

Judging by your post, you WANT Romney to collapse.

That's kind of a given, isn't it?

[pbrower2a]

With all states in any shade of red and any one of those in white, President Obama wins.

The states in white are different enough that (pardon me if I bore you) they fit three qualifications:

1. That with President Obama winning every state that President Obama won by at least 9% in 2008, any one of them clinches by itself. If Montana or either of the Dakotas were to be an Obama state in 2008, it would not be decisive in itself. Any congressional district in Nebraska is in the same category.

2. Each state is at least conceivably a possible win by President Obama with none of the others. President Obama is not going to win Arizona without also winning Colorado, Georgia without also winning Florida and North Carolina, Indiana without also winning Ohio. 

3. These were all Obama wins or close to being Obama wins. None of these states (or those in yellow) requires a huge shift of votes that indicates that the President has picked up a large constituency that rejected him in 2008. This rules out a state like Kentucky.

I am going to put Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and the second district of Nebraska in yellow.     

President Obama wins about every state in white before he wins anything in yellow. Everything in white or any shade of red puts the President at 357 electoral votes.  Add yellow and it goes up to 405.   

[Dumbo]

I think whether Romney collapses or not is not
a question of how many electoral votes he wins,
it is Florida. If he does not win Florida the
election is over before the election night really
has begun. This will the people remember in 10 or
20 years and not how many electoral votes he
won.
Without Florida Romney will be remembered as
the candidate who lost the election in the first
60 minutes of the election night, not less not more.

[mondale84]

Given that this is the current map:

A complete Romney collapse could generate this:

[5280]

Given that this is the current map:

A complete Romney collapse could generate this:

Dem-leaning map, mind you.

[mondale84]

Given that this is the current map:

A complete Romney collapse could generate this:

Dem-leaning map, mind you.

....I'm giving Romney the benefit of the doubt...

[pbrower2a]

Judging by your post, you WANT Romney to collapse.

That's not the point.  The last President to win re-election in a blowout and not have a scandal or military disaster break was Dwight Eisenhower. LBJ  had the escalation of the War in Vietnam; Nixon had Watergate; Reagan had Iran-Contra; Clinton let his zipper get loose.  I just want to show what it looks like.

[opebo]

Given that this is the current map:

Current map should have MO and IN at least leaning Romney, and NC leaning Romney.  GA, MT, AZ are all completely solid. 

[pbrower2a]

Now come two different disasters for Romney. Neither he nor Ryan has any connection to the South. Bill Clinton won five states in both 1992 and 1996 that President Obama got clobbered in. We all saw Bill Clinton speak, and if he has any pull, those states (Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia) could switch on a big scale. There has been little polling of those states, and nothing recent. Put those in light green, and President Obama adds 38 electoral votes. Texas has as many electoral votes and is very different from those states. Put it in dark green.

Reds + white + yellow + one shade of green -- Obama 443. It might be easier to imagine exchanging Louisiana for South Carolina.   That is roughly FDR in 1944 or Eisenhower in 1952.

No more maps from me on this topic -- at least based on this.

Again -- I do not assume a Romney collapse. 

[Wisconsin+17]

See my prediction.

[mondale84]

Current map should have MO and IN at least leaning Romney, and NC leaning Romney.  GA, MT, AZ are all completely solid. 

...with recent polls showing Obama within the MOE in MO, MT, and NC (in R-leaning polls, mind you)? I don't think so...

[Donerail]

Current map should have MO and IN at least leaning Romney, and NC leaning Romney.  GA, MT, AZ are all completely solid. 

...with recent polls showing Obama within the MOE in MO, MT, and NC (in R-leaning polls, mind you)? I don't think so...

MISSOURI: R+3, R+20, R+12, R+7, R+17. Average of about R+10, which is not in the margin of error.

MONTANA: R+3 is the only recent one (PPP); taking into account previous Rassy and PPP polls, it's about R+7; not in the margin of error.

NORTH CAROLINA: O+1, R+1, Tie, R+3, R+4, R+1; R+2, which is within the margin of error.

Polling says Montana, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Indiana are all pretty safe for Romney and North Carolina tilting towards him.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Given that this is the current map:

A complete Romney collapse could generate this:

Romney - 272
Obama - 266

without Virginia

although I still think Romney has a shot at VA even with Goode on the ballot

The fact that Romney has a ceiling of ~270-280 EVs while Obama has a ceiling of ~290-340 EVs says a lot about where things are headed...

The fact that Romney has a ceiling of ~270-280 EVs while Obama has a ceiling of ~290-340 EVs says a lot about where things are headed...

Obama has a ceiling of ~290-340 EVs

Obama has a ceiling of ~290-340 EVs

[Sasquatch]

Obama - 54%  369 EV
Romney - 44%  169 EV
Johnson - 1%
Others - 1%

[Vosem]

People here don't understand that the only way Romney can collapse beyond slightly worse than McCain 2008 levels (McCain 2008, not sure about Indiana, maybe add in Montana, Arizona, Missouri) is in the event of a 9/11-style terrorist attack or the outbreak of WW3, somehow, in which case Romney will do far worse; winning only a few states; ID, UT, OK, and the Deep South. But, ultimately, an Obama collapse is far more likely. (Yes, Obama leads right now. Still.)

[Supersonic]

Obama - 54%  369 EV
Romney - 44%  169 EV
Johnson - 1%
Others - 1%

This, basically.

[opebo]

But, ultimately, an Obama collapse is far more likely. (Yes, Obama leads right now. Still.)

I would agree that it is true that a lot of Obama's support at this moment - both percentage-wise and even more so electorally speaking - is quite tenuous.  Whereas Romney's current position, while awful and clearly losing, is very unlikely to go lower due to the hard nature of the Republican floor (racism, extremism, etc.).

[Donerail]

Obama - 55%  383 EV
Romney - 42%  169 EV
Johnson - 2%
Others - 1%

This, basically.

With a couple of changes, this is the worst Romney can do barring apocalyptic scenarios.

[Simfan34]

Obama - 55%  383 EV
Romney - 42%  169 EV
Johnson - 2%
Others - 1%

This, basically.

With a couple of changes, this is the worst Romney can do barring apocalyptic scenarios.

Throw in GA and I'd agree.

[NVGonzalez]

Obama - 55%  383 EV
Romney - 42%  169 EV
Johnson - 2%
Others - 1%

This, basically.

With a couple of changes, this is the worst Romney can do barring apocalyptic scenarios.

Throw in GA and I'd agree.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Romney's not taking the south.

[Donerail]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Romney's not taking the south.

Do explain why every poll conducted so far is wrong?