My take on current state of the election

[Reaganfan]

It's quite depressing. Obama's massively ahead, the election is over, Romney and Ryan stand no chance.

Of course, that is, until you realize that is untrue. In fact, Obama should be even more worried now than before the convention.

Both Romney and Obama received very slight bounces from their conventions. Romney went up 3-5 pts generally, and Obama went up 3-5 pts, generally. Both of these bounces were less than previous years. I feel as though large convention bounces may be a thing of the past if the current electorate of stagnant politics keeps up.

Regardless, the media has tried to seize this moment to proclaim Romney's campaign as dead in the water, which is obviously not the case.

First, ignore all the polls showing anything different than likely voters. I'm a likely voter. I'm voting. I'd walk barefoot over broken glass to vote. (You can always pick the glass shards out of your bare feet later). Registered voter polls are often not close to the actual result as likely voter polls.

Polls showing likely voters show a much different race, and in fact a much different electorate than those polls which show registered voters.

New polls released today show Obama ahead +1 and another new poll shows Obama ahead +2. In both polls, Obama receives 46% and 48% respectively, and both are within the margin of error. The key is that Obama is nearly always below the 50% threshold in likely voter polls and many times, Romney is closer to that margin than Obama.

Secondly, undecideds continue to be the key to this election. Going back to every election the last 50 years where a President has sought re-election, the challenger, whether he wins or loses, receives a massive percentage of the undecided vote. Indeed, 85% of the undecided votes have gone to the challenger in some of those races. Whether it was winning challengers like Reagan and Clinton, or losing challengers like McGovern, Mondale, Dole and Kerry, then challengers always always always hold the advantage in the undecided vote share.

Third, turnout will be less than 2008. The youth vote will go for Obama but by substantially less margins than in 2008, and combined with decreased turnout, this helps Mitt Romney. Indeed, whether the silent electorate or the low convention viewership on both sides, it's clear that enthusiasm will be the key to turnout. This too, is also a significant advantage-Romney.

Finally, no matter what the poll, overwhelming numbers of Americans believe America is well on the wrong track. No president has ever gotten re-elected in this environment. It doesn't happen. You all know this. It's a fact. It wasn't until the very end of the campaigns of 1980 and 1992 when the negative state of affairs caught up to Presidents Carter and Bush, and 2012 may be the same. Don't be surprised if on Halloween, polls are showing a huge Romney surge.

So I still think Obama can win, but it's advantage: Romney.

P.S. The debates will be crucial.

[Yank2133]

Nice spin.

Romney is losing accept it.

[Reaganfan]

Nice spin.

Romney is losing accept it.

Actually, except for blacks and unenlightened females, Romney has an advantage.

[Marston]

Nice spin.

Romney is losing accept it.

Actually, except for blacks and unenlightened females, Romney has an advantage.

Uh, wow...

Is this guy for real?

[Yank2133]

Nice spin.

Romney is losing accept it.

Actually, except for blacks and unenlightened females, Romney has an advantage.

Romney has an advantage with old white men......he is losing everything else.

[Mister Twister]

Feel free to keep hope alive. However, I would recommend purchasing a gigantic sponge to soak up all of your crocodile tears come November 6th, Reaganfan.

[ajc0918]

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Nice spin dude. Romney got between a -1 to 2 point bounce. Obama got between a 3-6 point bounce. RR is done for, go ahead and focus on 2016. I think around October 4th, the GOP will abandon the race for the White House and focus on gaining the senate. You should do the same.

[7,052,770]

Both Romney and Obama received very slight bounces from their conventions. Romney went up 3-5 pts generally, and Obama went up 3-5 pts, generally.

Why are you posting something that is demonstrably false?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nice spin.

Romney is losing accept it.

Actually, except for blacks and unenlightened females, Romney has an advantage.

This thread is going places.

[Lief 🗽]

Naso, you would have made a terrific Nazi.

[SPC]

Should we let Naso know that Dick Morris hacked into his account?

[JFK-Democrat]

Wake up dude...Romney is a loser...actually he is mister 25%

[King]

Damn I was hoping for a video.

[Likely Voter]

It's just a flesh wound

[5280]

Nice spin.

Romney is losing accept it.

Actually, except for blacks and unenlightened females, Romney has an advantage.

Uh, wow...

Is this guy for real?

He's as real as the human flesh. If you want something robotic, talk to your Iphone and Siri.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

[...]

I'm a likely voter. I'm voting. I'd walk barefoot over broken glass to vote. (You can always pick the glass shards out of your bare feet later).

[...]

Anyone agree that we need to test this?

[Mr.Phips]

Nice spin dude. Romney got between a -1 to 2 point bounce. Obama got between a 3-6 point bounce. RR is done for, go ahead and focus on 2016. I think around October 4th, the GOP will abandon the race for the White House and focus on gaining the senate. You should do the same.

And this would be good for Democrats because?  If Obama is reelected with a fully Republican Congress, he will be absolutely worthless. 

[Holmes]

Nice spin.

Romney is losing accept it.

Actually, except for blacks and unenlightened females, Romney has an advantage.

Uh, wow...

Is this guy for real?

No.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Finally, no matter what the poll, overwhelming numbers of Americans believe America is well on the wrong track. No president has ever gotten re-elected in this environment. It doesn't happen. You all know this. It's a fact. It wasn't until the very end of the campaigns of 1980 and 1992 when the negative state of affairs caught up to Presidents Carter and Bush, and 2012 may be the same. Don't be surprised if on Halloween, polls are showing a huge Romney surge.

In early September 1980/1992 Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush had approval ratings of 37% and 39% respectively (and those were the convention bounces). Barack Obama currently has an approval rating of 50% (again, the result of a convention bounce).

(All numbers from Gallup).

[Хahar 🤔]

[pbrower2a]

It's quite depressing. Obama's massively ahead, the election is over, Romney and Ryan stand no chance.

Of course, that is, until you realize that is untrue. In fact, Obama should be even more worried now than before the convention.

At this point he has practically no chance of losing unless some unforeseeable calamity arises. He is ahead in every state that he won in 2008 except perhaps Indiana, in which he did practically no campaigning this year. (The Gravis poll in Virginia is unreliable)

It is Mitt Romney who is in the bad spot with few chances to win, all of them depending on several longshots going well for him. He gambles on those longshots at the risk of losing states that might now seem safe for him. That's an even worse position than John McCain was in last time.

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The reduced bounces indicate that people were not watching the Party conventions as they did in 2008. After all, 2008 involved to candidates, one trying to distance himself from a failed President and one who could have hardly been a more complete rejection of the failed President of the time.  If people wanted a dramatic change from what they perceived as a failed President, then they would have tuned intently to speeches by Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney as they did to Ronald Reagan in 1980. They probably watched baseball games instead. Ratings were higher for the Democratic Convention than for the Republican Convention.

This ain't 1980. People want more of the same -- at least from the President.

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Mitt Romney has shown what he is, and he has not captivated the American public. He has had plenty of opportunity to offer himself as a viable alternative to President Obama. At that he has failed.  

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PPP and Quinnipiac have gone to likely-voter polling. Such is less generous to President Obama... but he still wins. Note well that the Obama campaign will seek to bring out new voters and turn not-so-likely voters who lean toward him to the polls. "Likely voters" is his floor. The most recent credible polls (Gravis is not credible) show President Obama ahead in every state that he won in 2008 except Indiana.

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Note well that such a lead hides the fact that President Obama is likely ahead by smaller margins in the many states that he is wining than he is behind in the states that he is sure to lose.  The States elect the President; the people do not. People in Oklahoma are unlikely to convince people in Minnesota to vote for Romney.

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Except in late-season collapses, the undecided usually go ineffectively toward the loser.  The key point is that no incumbent President wins more than about 60% of the vote. A incumbent winning  55% or more of the vote is usually poaching voters on the opposite side of the political spectrum (FDR '36 or '40, Eisenhower '56, Johnson '64, Nixon '72, and Reagan '84) approaches the limit. Undecided voters tend to vote as their partisan inclinations have them vote. Eisenhower was obviously picking up many liberal votes in 1952 and 1956.

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Enthusiasm for Romney seems to have collapsed. Turnout this year will be much more than that of 2010. The student vote aligns itself after the fall semester is underway. Ratings for Romney -- which would have been higher if people were enthusiastic toward him or at least desirous of defeating Obama -- bode ill for him.
 

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1936 could be more relevant. What matters more is a recent memory of the collapse of the American economy attributed to an earlier Administration.  

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In your mind. You can't understand how many see President Obama  as the best President that they could now have. I knew lots of people back in 1984 who couldn't imagine anyone voting to re-elect Ronald Reagan because he was so awful. That is what one calls an 'unrepresentative sample'.  

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They will probably seal this election.