Arizona poll from PPP: Romney+9

[Skill and Chance]

I'd expect Obama to pull slightly better--maybe a 7% loss--but this sort of discredits the "Southwest is trending hardcore D" meme.

1. Obama became more populist than 2008
2. Romney is much more libertarian/business-focused than McCain

[Mister Twister]

Democrats could in theory be under-represented in the polling the same way that Nevada under-represented Democrats in 2008 and 2010.

[TJ in Oregon]

As of August 28, 2012, there are 3,100,575 registered voters in the state of Arizona, 935,098 (30.2%) of which are registered Democrats and 1,113,123 (35.9%) registered Republicans.

As of November 4, 2008, there were 2,987,451 registered voters in the state of Arizona, 1,022,252 (34.2%) of which were registered Democrats and 1,118,587 (37.4%) registered Republicans.

So both major parties lost memebers and lost percentages and the Democrats lost more than the Republicans.

[Wisconsin+17]

Wow, mondale. I realize it's hard to give up on AZ, but even I'm considering moving AZ into the Romney lock. And I hate Romney.

[Mister Twister]

Purportedly, Team Obama wanted to campaign in Arizona but decided not to because of security reasons (high chance of him getting shot)

[pbrower2a]

The state came close to losing a Congressional Representative to the Grim Reaper.

...In any event, a 9% lead might be an exaggeration, but even as an exaggeration eight weeks is too little time in which to flip the state to the president. It does have a hot Senate race.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

People say this will go democrat one day. Just can't see it happening.

Genuinely think democrats have a ceiling here of 47% max. Apart from Janet Napolitano they just can't make it really competitive.

Its moving more to the right. Democrats should put resources in Georgia and South Carolina much better options longterm.

Georgia perhaps, but I've seen nothing to believe South Carolina will end its highly partisan nature any time soon.

[5280]

Purportedly, Team Obama wanted to campaign in Arizona but decided not to because of security reasons (high chance of him getting shot)

Source, otherwise I'm only going to believe the story slightly.

[Earthling]

Purportedly, Team Obama wanted to campaign in Arizona but decided not to because of security reasons (high chance of him getting shot)

Source, otherwise I'm only going to believe the story slightly.

Why? Republicans don't do facts.

[defe07]

What would happen if Gary Johnson decides to swing by AZ and is able to take away some Romney voters and makes the state competitive??

[Vosem]

What would happen if Gary Johnson decides to swing by AZ and is able to take away some Romney voters and makes the state competitive??

Most polling indicates Johnson takes from Romney and Obama about equally...

[mondale84]

What would happen if Gary Johnson decides to swing by AZ and is able to take away some Romney voters and makes the state competitive??

Most polling indicates Johnson takes from Romney and Obama about equally...

This is in fact not the case.

[Vosem]

What would happen if Gary Johnson decides to swing by AZ and is able to take away some Romney voters and makes the state competitive??

Most polling indicates Johnson takes from Romney and Obama about equally...

This is in fact not the case.

This is in fact the case -- if anything, most polling actually shows Johnson taking slightly more from Obama than Romney:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/obama-up-by-3-in-colorado.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/07/obama-lead-in-new-mexico-declining.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/obama-remains-ahead-in-nevada.html#more

The only polls PPP has done with Johnson are the three above and the recent Montana poll (that I could find using Google). Johnson's impact is R+1, R+1, 0, and D+2; which averages out to 0. I couldn't find polling including Johnson from other pollsters.

[mondale84]

What would happen if Gary Johnson decides to swing by AZ and is able to take away some Romney voters and makes the state competitive??

Most polling indicates Johnson takes from Romney and Obama about equally...

This is in fact not the case.

This is in fact the case -- if anything, most polling actually shows Johnson taking slightly more from Obama than Romney:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/obama-up-by-3-in-colorado.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/07/obama-lead-in-new-mexico-declining.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/obama-remains-ahead-in-nevada.html#more

The only polls PPP has done with Johnson are the three above and the recent Montana poll (that I could find using Google). Johnson's impact is R+1, R+1, 0, and D+2; which averages out to 0. I couldn't find polling including Johnson from other pollsters.

Once people vote and Johnson is on the Libertarian line, he will hurt Romney like all libertarians steal votes from Republicans.

[Vosem]

What would happen if Gary Johnson decides to swing by AZ and is able to take away some Romney voters and makes the state competitive??

Most polling indicates Johnson takes from Romney and Obama about equally...

This is in fact not the case.

This is in fact the case -- if anything, most polling actually shows Johnson taking slightly more from Obama than Romney:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/obama-up-by-3-in-colorado.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/07/obama-lead-in-new-mexico-declining.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/obama-remains-ahead-in-nevada.html#more

The only polls PPP has done with Johnson are the three above and the recent Montana poll (that I could find using Google). Johnson's impact is R+1, R+1, 0, and D+2; which averages out to 0. I couldn't find polling including Johnson from other pollsters.

Once people vote and Johnson is on the Libertarian line, he will hurt Romney like all libertarians steal votes from Republicans.

Well, that goes against available statistics (in other words, you are pulling the idea Johnson is hurting Romney out of your ass). Plus, a lot of belief about where the third-party vote comes from is wrong; most people who vote third-party always do so, they aren't stolen from anywhere. I remember reading an article a few years ago -- unfortunately I can't find it now -- that actually said Ralph Nader helped Al Gore in Florida, because he attracted environmentally conscious and far-left voters to the ballot box (otherwise they may have stayed home), where some amount probably realized Nader had no chance and voted Gore; this, the author said, explained exit polling which showed Bush winning Florida by a full percentage point if Nader wasn't on the ballot. But, then again, exit polling isn't famed for accuracy.

[5280]

What would happen if Gary Johnson decides to swing by AZ and is able to take away some Romney voters and makes the state competitive??

Most polling indicates Johnson takes from Romney and Obama about equally...

This is in fact not the case.

This is in fact the case -- if anything, most polling actually shows Johnson taking slightly more from Obama than Romney:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/obama-up-by-3-in-colorado.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/07/obama-lead-in-new-mexico-declining.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/obama-remains-ahead-in-nevada.html#more

The only polls PPP has done with Johnson are the three above and the recent Montana poll (that I could find using Google). Johnson's impact is R+1, R+1, 0, and D+2; which averages out to 0. I couldn't find polling including Johnson from other pollsters.

Once people vote and Johnson is on the Libertarian line, he will hurt Romney like all libertarians steal votes from Republicans.

Well, that goes against available statistics (in other words, you are pulling the idea Johnson is hurting Romney out of your ass). Plus, a lot of belief about where the third-party vote comes from is wrong; most people who vote third-party always do so, they aren't stolen from anywhere. I remember reading an article a few years ago -- unfortunately I can't find it now -- that actually said Ralph Nader helped Al Gore in Florida, because he attracted environmentally conscious and far-left voters to the ballot box (otherwise they may have stayed home), where some amount probably realized Nader had no chance and voted Gore; this, the author said, explained exit polling which showed Bush winning Florida by a full percentage point if Nader wasn't on the ballot. But, then again, exit polling isn't famed for accuracy.

Johnson is only taking more votes away from Obama in CO is the legalization of marijuana. On the other states, not sure what takes more away from Obama. Maybe foreign policy and ending the war.