Arizona poll from PPP: Romney+9
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Author Topic: Arizona poll from PPP: Romney+9  (Read 2639 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 11, 2012, 02:15:02 PM »
September 7-9, 2012 - Survey of 993 likely voters:

53% Romney
44% Obama

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ........................................................ 36%
Republican...................................................... 44%
Independent/Other.......................................... 21%

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/09/arizonaresultsivr2.html
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2012, 02:16:53 PM »
So, not to dispute the numbers... but I wonder if the this robo-poll also uses spanish recordings.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2012, 02:17:52 PM »
AZ, as expected, remains fool's gold for the Democrats.
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Reds4
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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2012, 02:19:08 PM »
Very good result for Romney considering the timing of the poll.
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User157088589849
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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2012, 02:19:54 PM »
People say this will go democrat one day. Just can't see it happening.

Genuinely think democrats have a ceiling here of 47% max. Apart from Janet Napolitano they just can't make it really competitive.

Its moving more to the right. Democrats should put resources in Georgia and South Carolina much better options longterm.
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mondale84
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2012, 03:08:14 PM »
Those party ID numbers are very questionable...
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Devils30
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« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2012, 03:09:42 PM »
Its the same margin as obama's 2008. Disappointing as McCain had the home state bounce but it's tough to convince non-Obama voters to switch this time.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2012, 03:10:43 PM »
Quote from: mondale84 on September 11, 2012, 03:08:14 PM
Those party ID numbers are very questionable...

Not really. R+8, 2008 was R+7.
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mondale84
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« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2012, 03:12:34 PM »
Quote from: a Person on September 11, 2012, 03:10:43 PM
Quote from: mondale84 on September 11, 2012, 03:08:14 PM
Those party ID numbers are very questionable...

Not really. R+8, 2008 was R+7.

The Dems have registered a ton of new voters though and 2008 was probably a high point for Republicans in Arizona because of the native-son effect.

Prediction: Obama wins at-least 46% on election day.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2012, 03:13:57 PM »
Quote from: mondale84 on September 11, 2012, 03:12:34 PM
Quote from: a Person on September 11, 2012, 03:10:43 PM
Quote from: mondale84 on September 11, 2012, 03:08:14 PM
Those party ID numbers are very questionable...

Not really. R+8, 2008 was R+7.

The Dems have registered a ton of new voters though and 2008 was probably a high point for Republicans in Arizona because of the native-son effect.

Prediction: Obama wins at-least 46% on election day.

Balance that against the fact that Obama is almost certainly not going to do as well nationally as he did in 2008...

Arizona has a large Mormon population, too, iirc.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2012, 03:41:01 PM »
Quote from: mondale84 on September 11, 2012, 03:12:34 PM

The Dems have registered a ton of new voters though



Nope.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2012, 03:42:46 PM »
Quote from: a Person on September 11, 2012, 03:10:43 PM
Quote from: mondale84 on September 11, 2012, 03:08:14 PM
Those party ID numbers are very questionable...

Not really. R+8, 2008 was R+7.

Roughly 87,000 registered Democrats have vanished off the AZ voter registration rolls.
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mondale84
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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2012, 03:44:06 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on September 11, 2012, 03:42:46 PM
Quote from: a Person on September 11, 2012, 03:10:43 PM
Quote from: mondale84 on September 11, 2012, 03:08:14 PM
Those party ID numbers are very questionable...

Not really. R+8, 2008 was R+7.

Roughly 87,000 registered Democrats have vanished off the AZ voter registration rolls.

Ummm....no. The Obama campaign has been registering tons of new latinos and they will turn out in droves to stick it to the bigoted racist state GOP.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2012, 03:44:36 PM »
Looks about right..
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
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« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2012, 03:47:01 PM »
Quote from: a Person on September 11, 2012, 03:13:57 PM
Quote from: mondale84 on September 11, 2012, 03:12:34 PM
Quote from: a Person on September 11, 2012, 03:10:43 PM
Quote from: mondale84 on September 11, 2012, 03:08:14 PM
Those party ID numbers are very questionable...

Not really. R+8, 2008 was R+7.

The Dems have registered a ton of new voters though and 2008 was probably a high point for Republicans in Arizona because of the native-son effect.

Prediction: Obama wins at-least 46% on election day.

Balance that against the fact that Obama is almost certainly not going to do as well nationally as he did in 2008...

Arizona has a large Mormon population, too, iirc.
But they already vote in large proportions and waaaayy more Republican than other groups. Mormons won't make a difference much in bumping Romney's voting shares in Nevada, Colorado, or Arizona.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2012, 03:47:37 PM »
Quote from: mondale84 on September 11, 2012, 03:44:06 PM
Ummm....no. The Obama campaign has been registering tons of new latinos and they will turn out in droves to stick it to the bigoted racist state GOP.

Nope. The actual data proves otherwise.
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mondale84
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« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2012, 03:52:18 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on September 11, 2012, 03:47:37 PM
Quote from: mondale84 on September 11, 2012, 03:44:06 PM
Ummm....no. The Obama campaign has been registering tons of new latinos and they will turn out in droves to stick it to the bigoted racist state GOP.

Nope. The actual data proves otherwise.

If you are "the actual data" then I think we're fine.

Also, don't give me numbers from the Arizona SOS...he's a hackish Birther troll who tried to get the President's name off the ballot.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2012, 04:04:55 PM »
12% of Hispanics in this poll.

Mondale84, don't troll. Thanks.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2012, 04:07:55 PM »
I'd like to see someone else poll here, but yeah, Obama shouldn't waste his time on Arizona. Missouri remains his best (and only?) shot for a state pickup.

Where are those Montana and Minnesota polls that PPP were supposed to do though?
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Supersonic
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« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2012, 04:09:23 PM »
Looks good.
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5280
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« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2012, 07:07:57 PM »
Looks like a reasonable poll of AZ, good news.  Basically, south Utah with an increase of Hispanic population.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2012, 07:45:12 PM »
Yeah. AZ did a good job of running Democrats and Latinos out of the state.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2012, 07:46:24 PM »
I'd expect Obama to pull slightly better--maybe a 7% loss--but this sort of discredits the "Southwest is trending hardcore D" meme.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2012, 07:47:33 PM »
Liberal bias!
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2012, 07:50:48 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on September 11, 2012, 04:07:55 PM
Where are those Montana and Minnesota polls that PPP were supposed to do though?

There's releasing them tomorrow or Thursday.
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