CNN Poll of LV's (post-DNC) Obama: 52 % Romney: 46 %

[Supersonic]

Harry Enten, poll analyst for The Guardian in the UK, says on twitter the poll sample of that CNN poll appears to be  44/34/22, or D+10. Now I know Dems are optimistic, but D+10?  Romney leads 54-40 w/ Indies, 96/2 w/ GOP, and Obama's at 97/3 w/ Dems. +6 wouldn't be possible otherwise.

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I was beginning to lose my faith for a second, then it turns out we have another overly Democratic poll sample.

Nothing to see here, move on.

Keep living in your delusional British Republican fantasy world.

Obama is up big and no amount of spinning by you, other right-wing trolls, or the Romney campaign is going to change that.

Turnout will not be 44% Democrat.

Any reasonable person, on both sides of the aisle, should be able to see that.

Maybe not 44% people who are registered Democrats, but 44% people who identify as such. Anyway, the topline number jives with everything else we're seeing around, so when you jump on this poll as "bogus" and cheer a poll showing Obama up by only 2 points, your trolling gets obvious.

Don't throw stones in glass houses.

kthxbai

[mondale84]

Harry Enten, poll analyst for The Guardian in the UK, says on twitter the poll sample of that CNN poll appears to be  44/34/22, or D+10. Now I know Dems are optimistic, but D+10?  Romney leads 54-40 w/ Indies, 96/2 w/ GOP, and Obama's at 97/3 w/ Dems. +6 wouldn't be possible otherwise.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I was beginning to lose my faith for a second, then it turns out we have another overly Democratic poll sample.

Nothing to see here, move on.

Keep living in your delusional British Republican fantasy world.

Obama is up big and no amount of spinning by you, other right-wing trolls, or the Romney campaign is going to change that.

Turnout will not be 44% Democrat.

Any reasonable person, on both sides of the aisle, should be able to see that.

Maybe not 44% people who are registered Democrats, but 44% people who identify as such. Anyway, the topline number jives with everything else we're seeing around, so when you jump on this poll as "bogus" and cheer a poll showing Obama up by only 2 points, your trolling gets obvious.

Don't throw stones in glass houses.

kthxbai

LOL

It's funny when right-wing trolls accuse others of trolling when they are desperately clinging to the most questionable polls so that they can delude themselves into believing that Romney still has a chance.

[DrScholl]

Regardless of what this poll says, you can't really discount that Obama is leading at this point, every poll is showing that, even Rasmussen. Now unless every pollster is on a concentrated effort against Romney, there is really no disputing that Obama is in the better position right now.

It seems to me that some normal independents may have chosen partisan ID in this poll, rather than just saying independent, so may view party ID more fluidly than the pollster intends. That would explain why independents are lower here.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Regardless of what this poll says, you can't really discount that Obama is leading at this point, every poll is showing that, even Rasmussen. Now unless every pollster is on a concentrated effort against Romney, there is really no disputing that Obama is in the better position right now.

It seems to me that some normal independents may have chosen partisan ID in this poll, rather than just saying independent, so may view party ID more fluidly than the pollster intends. That would explain why independents are lower here.

I really wouldn't put it past some people here.

[mondale84]

Regardless of what this poll says, you can't really discount that Obama is leading at this point, every poll is showing that, even Rasmussen. Now unless every pollster is on a concentrated effort against Romney, there is really no disputing that Obama is in the better position right now.

It seems to me that some normal independents may have chosen partisan ID in this poll, rather than just saying independent, so may view party ID more fluidly than the pollster intends. That would explain why independents are lower here.

^^^This.

Yet, the trolls keep trolling...

[Likely Voter]

If this poll were an outlier it would be easy to "dismiss and move on" but it is consistent with the trackers. 

By the end of the week I suspect there will be new polls from the other usual big outfits and we can be more confident but at this point the debate is down to "how big is Obama's lead/bounce?" not "is Obama ahead?"

I suspect the next polls will be in the +3 to +6 range with Obama settling in to about a +4 average by the end of the week which will probably shrink down to +2 or +3 by Debate #1 in 3 weeks.

[MorningInAmerica]

If this poll were an outlier it would be easy to "dismiss and move on" but it is consistent with the trackers. 

By the end of the week I suspect there will be new polls from the other usual big outfits and we can be more confident but at this point the debate is down to "how big is Obama's lead/bounce?" not "is Obama ahead?"

There's no question Obama's leading. Did I miss someone suggesting he wasn't?

[Craigo]

Once again: Weighting by party ID is a mistake. It is a very volatile characteristic, unlike race and age. Twisting samples to produce what you think the numbers should "really" look like according to what you personally believe is foolish. Use characteristics that don't swing wildly back and forth from one cycle to the next.

[mondale84]

If this poll were an outlier it would be easy to "dismiss and move on" but it is consistent with the trackers. 

By the end of the week I suspect there will be new polls from the other usual big outfits and we can be more confident but at this point the debate is down to "how big is Obama's lead/bounce?" not "is Obama ahead?"

There's no question Obama's leading. Did I miss someone suggesting he wasn't?

The British troll.

[King]

In before Ben Romney and Umengus give us "their numbers."

[Sbane]

I'm guessing CNN doesn't weigh by party ID?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

If this poll were an outlier it would be easy to "dismiss and move on" but it is consistent with the trackers. 

By the end of the week I suspect there will be new polls from the other usual big outfits and we can be more confident but at this point the debate is down to "how big is Obama's lead/bounce?" not "is Obama ahead?"

There's no question Obama's leading. Did I miss someone suggesting he wasn't?

The British troll.

Supersonic is not a troll, nor was he suggesting a Romney lead.

[Supersonic]

If this poll were an outlier it would be easy to "dismiss and move on" but it is consistent with the trackers. 

By the end of the week I suspect there will be new polls from the other usual big outfits and we can be more confident but at this point the debate is down to "how big is Obama's lead/bounce?" not "is Obama ahead?"

There's no question Obama's leading. Did I miss someone suggesting he wasn't?

The British troll.

I sense someone is talking about me...

[Craigo]

I'm guessing CNN doesn't weigh by party ID?

Rasmussen is the only major pollster I know of that weight by party ID. They weight each new survey using a rolling average of the previous three months' raw samples.