CNN Poll of LV's (post-DNC) Obama: 52 % Romney: 46 %

[MorningInAmerica]

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf

Obama: 52% (+4)
Romney: 46% (-2)

No link yet. Was tied 48-48% in last poll. Romney is down in nearly every metric.

Count this as one of the polls where Johnson pulls from Romney:

Obama: 51%
Romney: 43%
Johnson: 3%

Obama's favorability rating is 57%, while Romney's is at 48%.

Poll Analyst for The Guardian suggests party ID, by looking at Indy vote and base vote, is 44%D/34%R/22%I (D+10).

[Adam Griffin]

Is this the first national poll showing Obama above 50% among LVs?

[Yank2133]

Good......good.

[pa2011]

Obama has got to feel pretty good being a 52 in a likely voter poll. Lets face it, the days of one party having a double digit lead over another in a presidential race are likely over for the time being, given the stark polarization.  Think a solid 5 to 10 point lead is about as good as it will get for any candidate for a longtime in a heated presidential race, just two months before an election.

[MorningInAmerica]

Is this the first national poll showing Obama above 50% among LVs?

I'm not sure, but that sounds right.

[Brittain33]

Obama's favorability rating is 57%

Marchidominating.

[pa2011]

Elephant in the room re: CNN Poll (no pun intended). By a margin of 52 to 43, likely voters have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party. But by a margin of 52 to 42, likely voters have an unfavorable impression of the GOP.  Romney's problem are bigger than just his campaign. The entire GOP brand is taking a hit, which makes Romney's task all the more difficult over next 2 months.

[ucscgaldamez]

I wonder who else will release polls this week..ABC NEWS, CBS/NY Times?

CBS/NY Times specifically has been showing a much tighter race. I'm wondering what they'll show.

I'm sure there are lots of polls coming this week.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/10/cnn-poll-obama-up-six-points-over-romney/
Democrats are more enthused than republicans, 59-57.
Last week Romney's favorables were ate 53 and have since fallen to 48. Obama's on the other hand have risen to 57% Favorability, the highest since 2010.

Obama has the most optimistic vision for the future, 51-41. Last week it was 43-47.

Obama has a more clear plan, 45-39. Last week it was completely reversed.

Obamamentum continues.

[Skill and Chance]

CNN is the only non-tracker for which we have a between conventions poll.

Here is what it looks like.


CNN Pre-RNC: Obama +2

CNN Post-RNC: Tie

CNN Post-DNC: Obama +6

Bounces

Romney +2

Obama +6

Net Obama +4 relative to pre-RNC

[Wisconsin+17]

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And people laughed at my prediction.

[Supersonic]

Romney leading with independents by 14. Weird.

For the record: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf

[Lief 🗽]

Unambiguously good numbers for Obama.

[DrScholl]

That is what momentum looks like. That is what a bounce looks like.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Obama leads on the economy!!!!! It's tiny, but a leads a leads a lead.
Obama leads 59-49.

[pepper11]

That is what a bounce looks like.

Shouldn't you be hoping this is not a bounce, an inherently transient occurrence?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Shouldn't you be hoping this is not a bounce, an inherently transient occurrence?

We can hope it's not a bounce, but analytically, this is a bounce.  We're able to separate our hopes, and what the facts tell us.

[MorningInAmerica]

Romney leading with independents by 14. Weird.

For the record: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf

Romney leads by 14 in a poll where he trails by 6 overall? If they're both carrying roughly similar portions of their base, then this was a fairly Democratic sample. Unfortuantely, I don't see where they identify their sample in the pdf.

Also, note that CNN did something really funky with their methodology. Romney actually IMPROVED among registered voters from the last poll (the same poll that had him and Obama TIED.) He's at 53-45 w/ RV's this week, last week trailed 52-43% w/ RVs.

EDITED to say I was looking at the wrong week for my RV comparison (two weeks ago). Last week Obama led by 7 w/ RV's so he had a big improvement with LV's, a smaller improvement with RVs

[MorningInAmerica]

Harry Enten, poll analyst for The Guardian in the UK, says on twitter the poll sample of that CNN poll appears to be  44/34/22, or D+10. Now I know Dems are optimistic, but D+10?  Romney leads 54-40 w/ Indies, 96/2 w/ GOP, and Obama's at 97/3 w/ Dems. +6 wouldn't be possible otherwise.

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[Skill and Chance]

Romney leading with independents by 14. Weird.

For the record: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf

Romney leads by 14 in a poll where he trails by 6 overall? If they're both carrying roughly similar portions of their base, then this was a fairly Democratic sample. Unfortuantely, I don't see where they identify their sample in the pdf.

Also, note that CNN did something really funky with their methodology. Romney actually IMPROVED among registered voters from the last poll (the same poll that had him and Obama TIED.) He's at 53-45 w/ RV's this week, last week trailed 52-43% w/ RVs.

EDITED to say I was looking at two weeks ago. Last week Obama led by 7 w/ RV's so he had a big improvement with LV's, a smaller improvement with RVs

That's all consistent with a Dem enthusiasm surge wiping out the LV/RV gap.  Gallup and Rasmussen have both picked up renewed Dem enthusiasm.  In 2008, a supercharged Dem year, the LV/RV gap went to all the way 0.  Now it's looking more like a 1-2 point gap this year as opposed to a 3-4 point gap before the conventions.

[DrScholl]

That is what a bounce looks like.

Shouldn't you be hoping this is not a bounce, an inherently transient occurrence?

Your point is? I'm just saying it is a bounce. At this point, I think Obama is in the driver's seat and will stay there for the duration of the campaign.

[Supersonic]

Harry Enten, poll analyst for The Guardian in the UK, says on twitter the poll sample of that CNN poll appears to be  44/34/22, or D+10. Now I know Dems are optimistic, but D+10?  Romney leads 54-40 w/ Indies, 96/2 w/ GOP, and Obama's at 97/3 w/ Dems. +6 wouldn't be possible otherwise.

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I was beginning to lose my faith for a second, then it turns out we have another overly Democratic poll sample.

Nothing to see here, move on.

[mondale84]

Harry Enten, poll analyst for The Guardian in the UK, says on twitter the poll sample of that CNN poll appears to be  44/34/22, or D+10. Now I know Dems are optimistic, but D+10?  Romney leads 54-40 w/ Indies, 96/2 w/ GOP, and Obama's at 97/3 w/ Dems. +6 wouldn't be possible otherwise.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I was beginning to lose my faith for a second, then it turns out we have another overly Democratic poll sample.

Nothing to see here, move on.

Keep living in your delusional British Republican fantasy world.

Obama is up big and no amount of spinning by you, other right-wing trolls, or the Romney campaign is going to change that.

[Supersonic]

Harry Enten, poll analyst for The Guardian in the UK, says on twitter the poll sample of that CNN poll appears to be  44/34/22, or D+10. Now I know Dems are optimistic, but D+10?  Romney leads 54-40 w/ Indies, 96/2 w/ GOP, and Obama's at 97/3 w/ Dems. +6 wouldn't be possible otherwise.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I was beginning to lose my faith for a second, then it turns out we have another overly Democratic poll sample.

Nothing to see here, move on.

Keep living in your delusional British Republican fantasy world.

Obama is up big and no amount of spinning by you, other right-wing trolls, or the Romney campaign is going to change that.

Turnout will not be 44% Democrat.

Any reasonable person, on both sides of the aisle, should be able to see that.

[mondale84]

Harry Enten, poll analyst for The Guardian in the UK, says on twitter the poll sample of that CNN poll appears to be  44/34/22, or D+10. Now I know Dems are optimistic, but D+10?  Romney leads 54-40 w/ Indies, 96/2 w/ GOP, and Obama's at 97/3 w/ Dems. +6 wouldn't be possible otherwise.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I was beginning to lose my faith for a second, then it turns out we have another overly Democratic poll sample.

Nothing to see here, move on.

Keep living in your delusional British Republican fantasy world.

Obama is up big and no amount of spinning by you, other right-wing trolls, or the Romney campaign is going to change that.

Turnout will not be 44% Democrat.

Any reasonable person, on both sides of the aisle, should be able to see that.

Maybe not 44% people who are registered Democrats, but 44% people who identify as such. Anyway, the topline number jives with everything else we're seeing around, so when you jump on this poll as "bogus" and cheer a poll showing Obama up by only 2 points, your trolling gets obvious.