1980 without Anderson

[minionofmidas]

Another attempt to save this board from trolling...

This is the actual 1980 results map:
 
This is the theoretical result when we add all the Anderson votes to Carter's tally:

Obviously though, not all of Anderson's votes would have gone to the Democrats.
The following map, still somewhat oveoptimistically, allocates two-thirds of Anderson's votes to Carter, one-sixth to Reagan, and one-sixth to Others.

That's probably not a bad estimate as to what would would have happened.
The main problem is in Northern New England where Anderson drew a lot of Rockefeller Republican support that would have been off limits for Carter. Most of these people would likely have voted Republican, if without enthusiasm and, in many cases, for the last time. Plus, wherever Anderson's support was large, the Other estimate is too high.
Thence, here's my guess as to how things would have played out:

[Dr. Cynic]

Carter would have actually done better, but not much.

[J. J.]

Lewis,  there is a factor that you are forgetting.  Some voters voted for Anderson specifically because they liked Anderson.  They would not have voted for anyone for president, except Anderson.

I would expect that number to to be between 20%-40% of Anderson voters.  That said, if had been no Anderson candidacy, probably would have picked up MA and possibly AR and NY.  That could have more than doubled his electoral votes.

[minionofmidas]

Lewis,  there is a factor that you are forgetting.  Some voters voted for Anderson specifically because they liked Anderson.  They would not have voted for anyone for president, except Anderson.

Nah. They would not have voted for a different candidate with as much enthusiasm, but most would have voted.
Those who wouldn't have, yeah, you're right, they are now kind of included in the "other" column. Which is allright for determining who wins what state, but messes up the colours. There probably should be more >50s in the South.

[J. J.]

Lewis,  there is a factor that you are forgetting.  Some voters voted for Anderson specifically because they liked Anderson.  They would not have voted for anyone for president, except Anderson.

Nah. They would not have voted for a different candidate with as much enthusiasm, but most would have voted.
Those who wouldn't have, yeah, you're right, they are now kind of included in the "other" column. Which is allright for determining who wins what state, but messes up the colours. There probably should be more >50s in the South.

Usually, turnout is up in races with more than two major candidates.  1980 was no exception, but one of the best examples is 1992.  I believe 1968 was the same.

You would have seen a reduction in 1980 turnout without Anderson.  Now, it wouldn't have been a lot, but it would have been present.  The rule of thumb I use is about 40% of the third party's candidates' vote.

[minionofmidas]

Total number of votes cast:
1976 81.53 Million
1980 86.51 Million
1984 92.65 Million
Doesn't look like Anderson created many additional voters.
(Since then, though, the progression has been much rockier:
1988 91.59 Million
1992 104.42 Million
1996 96.27 Million
2000 105.42 Million
2004 122.29 Million)

I also took a look at Anderson's strongest states (all those where he crossed 10%)
Maine
1976 483K
1980 523K
1984 563K

New Hampshire
1976 340K
1980 384K
1984 389K

Vermont
1976 188K
1980 213K
1984 235K

Massachusetts (Anderson's strongest result)
1976 2.547 million
1980 2.524 million
1984 2.559 million
Yes, that's right, a decrease in 1980.

Rhode Island
1976 411K
1980 416K
1984 410K

Connecticut
1976 1.381 million
1980 1.406 million
1984 1.467 million

Colorado
1976 1.081 million
1980 1.184 million
1984 1.295 million

Washington
1976 1.555 million
1980 1.742 million
1984 1.884 million

Hawaii
1976 291K
1980 303K
1984 336K

Washington, New Hampshire and perhaps Rhode Island are the only states amongst these where Anderson may have boosted turnout.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice work :-)

[WalterMitty]

good analysis, lewis!

i like john anderson a lot.  had i been 18 in 1980 instead of 3, i would have voted anderson.

i invite everyone to read the debate transcipt of the reagan-anderson debate.  very interesting!

http://www.debates.org/pages/trans80a.html

[minionofmidas]

Nice work :-)

I thought you'd enjoy

You must be logged in to read this quote.

this map.