PPP NC/OH polls to be released tonight; Obama surging past 2008 margins

[pa2011]

In North Carolina, 2008-like margins would suggest a tie in North Carolina, which is same thing the PPP poll of NC showed last week. Don't think there were many polls in NC in 2008 that showed Obama ahead, except maybe a few by point or two. RCP average heading into election day '08 showed slight lead lead for McCain. Obama won it by by less than a point on election day because of the massive, somewhat unexpected, turnout among black voters.

[pa2011]

PPP tweeted its Obama 50 Romney 45.  Party ID is D +4, compared to D+8 in 2008. Not an insurmountable lead for Romney, but not a great sign for him that, even with a somewhat favorable party break down, he's still down 5.

[pa2011]

Just a hunch. Think PPP took real care with this poll, a likely voter poll, and didn't want their first set of polls post convention to seem outlandish, too partisan, or too optimistic for Obama.  With all that, plus 5 suggests, if election held today, Obama would win again by same margin as '08. Think back -- it wasn't even close. Ohio was called very early that night. And, frankly, i have a hard time believing it won't be more like D+6 turnout on election day, instead of this +4.  But its not like, with 2 months to go, things can't change and Romney can't retake the lead in Ohio. Still, he hasn't really led there at all this year, so he clearly needs to refocus his strategy or something if he's going to do it.