PPP NC/OH polls to be released tonight; Obama surging past 2008 margins
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  PPP NC/OH polls to be released tonight; Obama surging past 2008 margins
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Author Topic: PPP NC/OH polls to be released tonight; Obama surging past 2008 margins  (Read 5471 times)
Adam Griffin
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« on: September 09, 2012, 01:12:43 PM »
« edited: September 09, 2012, 11:17:30 PM by IDS Legislator Griffin »

EDIT: Ohio poll's out.

50-45 Obama

EDIT: NC results leaked

49-48 Obama

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2012, 01:21:34 PM »

As a reference:

PPP's mid-September 2008 Ohio poll showed McCain ahead by 4.
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pa2011
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2012, 01:22:50 PM »

In North Carolina, 2008-like margins would suggest a tie in North Carolina, which is same thing the PPP poll of NC showed last week. Don't think there were many polls in NC in 2008 that showed Obama ahead, except maybe a few by point or two. RCP average heading into election day '08 showed slight lead lead for McCain. Obama won it by by less than a point on election day because of the massive, somewhat unexpected, turnout among black voters.
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Earthling
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« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2012, 01:27:09 PM »

Obama can do without NC. Romney can't. If the race there remains close heading into October Romney has a problem.

And I looked back to PPP's polls in October/November 2008 and they were very accurate. But RCP did not use them in the average polls
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2012, 01:27:09 PM »

In North Carolina, 2008-like margins would suggest a tie in North Carolina, which is same thing the PPP poll of NC showed last week. Don't think there were many polls in NC in 2008 that showed Obama ahead, except maybe a few by point or two. RCP average heading into election day '08 showed slight lead lead for McCain. Obama won it by by less than a point on election day because of the massive, somewhat unexpected, turnout among black voters.

I think he can repeat it this year.

So far, Blacks make up 50% of all early & absentee voters in NC, indicating huge turnout once again:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2012, 01:28:57 PM »

I should also note that it's possible that NC will not be released tonight, along with the fact that the greater-than-2008-margin comment seems to be directed at Ohio only in the tweet. Still, a tie in NC will be great; at this point in 2008, RCP had McCain up by an average of 7 points, while a PPP poll from 9/9/08 showed McCain up by 4 points.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2012, 01:31:31 PM »

In North Carolina, 2008-like margins would suggest a tie in North Carolina, which is same thing the PPP poll of NC showed last week. Don't think there were many polls in NC in 2008 that showed Obama ahead, except maybe a few by point or two. RCP average heading into election day '08 showed slight lead lead for McCain. Obama won it by by less than a point on election day because of the massive, somewhat unexpected, turnout among black voters.

I think he can repeat it this year.

So far, Blacks make up 50% of all early & absentee voters in NC, indicating huge turnout once again:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

"That said, the number of absentee ballot applications leading into the first day of distribution of ballots is down by nearly half. In 2008 election officials had received 37,539 applications compared to 20,695 in 2012. The number of applications from registered Republicans is down more than Democrats. Registered Republicans composed 51% of the applications in 2008 and 42% in 2012."
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2012, 05:31:54 PM »

And you folks were worried?
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J. J.
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« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2012, 05:45:57 PM »

In North Carolina, 2008-like margins would suggest a tie in North Carolina, which is same thing the PPP poll of NC showed last week. Don't think there were many polls in NC in 2008 that showed Obama ahead, except maybe a few by point or two. RCP average heading into election day '08 showed slight lead lead for McCain. Obama won it by by less than a point on election day because of the massive, somewhat unexpected, turnout among black voters.

I think he can repeat it this year.

So far, Blacks make up 50% of all early & absentee voters in NC, indicating huge turnout once again:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

The applications are down by half and only 2 ballots have been sent out.  Wink
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« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2012, 06:31:31 PM »

9/7/12:

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Wow. Well, it looks like it's about time to start searching for employment outside of the United States.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2012, 06:40:28 PM »

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Wow. Well, it looks like it's about time to start searching for employment outside of the United States.

Romney has connections in the Caymans, search there.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2012, 06:51:17 PM »
« Edited: September 09, 2012, 06:57:51 PM by MorningInAmerica »

Any bets on how big PPP will have Obama's lead in Ohio tonight? Do I hear 58-38%? 65-30%?
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
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« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2012, 06:54:54 PM »

Any bets on how big PPP will have Obama's lead in Missouri tonight? Do I hear 58-41%? 65-30%?
I don't think they're polling Missouri. Are they?
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2012, 06:57:07 PM »

Ahh... what is wrong with me tonight. I meant Ohio. Thanks.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2012, 07:05:11 PM »

Any bets on how big PPP will have Obama's lead in Ohio tonight? Do I hear 58-38%? 65-30%?

52-44.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
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« Reply #15 on: September 09, 2012, 07:07:59 PM »

53-46
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #16 on: September 09, 2012, 07:11:46 PM »

For my non-snarky guess, I'll go with 52-43%.

The last PPP poll from right after the Ryan pick was 48-45% Obama.
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Sbane
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« Reply #17 on: September 09, 2012, 07:15:44 PM »

9/7/12:

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Wow. Well, it looks like it's about time to start searching for employment outside of the United States.

Unless you want to go work in some developing country, the rest of the developed world is doing worse than America.
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Person Man
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« Reply #18 on: September 09, 2012, 07:24:40 PM »

9/7/12:

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Wow. Well, it looks like it's about time to start searching for employment outside of the United States.

Unless you want to go work in some developing country, the rest of the developed world is doing worse than America.

Then again, the developing world seems to not be "developing" as much nowadays.
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Sbane
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« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2012, 07:33:25 PM »

Yeah, but 5-6% growth is still better than the 2% in America and about 0% in Europe. Of course the base matters...a lot.
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MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
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« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2012, 07:41:08 PM »

Yeah, but 5-6% growth is still better than the 2% in America and about 0% in Europe. Of course the base matters...a lot.

Some say Africa could be the next China if they get their governance issues under control. A lot of those countries, while politically corrupt, are seeing huge amounts of economic growth. Granted, they start from a low baseline, but growth is growth.
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2012, 07:43:50 PM »

Yeah, but 5-6% growth is still better than the 2% in America and about 0% in Europe. Of course the base matters...a lot.

Some say Africa could be the next China if they get their governance issues under control. A lot of those countries, while politically corrupt, are seeing huge amounts of economic growth. Granted, they start from a low baseline, but growth is growth.

Nairobi is hiring, I've heard. Smiley
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #22 on: September 09, 2012, 08:01:30 PM »

Yeah, MorningInAmerica, you should definitely emigrate to Kenya in search for better economic opportunities. And if you have a son there who some day decides to run for President, let's hope nobody will question his birth certificate.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #23 on: September 09, 2012, 08:04:42 PM »

I'm guessing 50-43 in Ohio and 49-46 in North Carolina.
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MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
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« Reply #24 on: September 09, 2012, 08:08:09 PM »
« Edited: September 09, 2012, 08:10:08 PM by MorningInAmerica »

Yeah, MorningInAmerica, you should definitely emigrate to Kenya in search for better economic opportunities. And if you have a son there who some day decides to run for President, let's hope nobody will question his birth certificate.

When did I question anyone's birth certificate? I was stating an honest fact about Africa. http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Whats_driving_Africas_growth_2601 Are you just trying to be combative and start a fight, or are you just really dumb and don't understand what I was saying to begin with? If it's the latter, don't bother clicking on the link because you won''t understand it anyway.
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