PPP NC/OH polls to be released tonight; Obama surging past 2008 margins

[Adam Griffin]

EDIT: Ohio poll's out.

50-45 Obama

EDIT: NC results leaked

49-48 Obama

9/7/12:

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9/8/12:

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9/9/12:

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[Adam Griffin]

I should also note that it's possible that NC will not be released tonight, along with the fact that the greater-than-2008-margin comment seems to be directed at Ohio only in the tweet. Still, a tie in NC will be great; at this point in 2008, RCP had McCain up by an average of 7 points, while a PPP poll from 9/9/08 showed McCain up by 4 points.

[Adam Griffin]

In North Carolina, 2008-like margins would suggest a tie in North Carolina, which is same thing the PPP poll of NC showed last week. Don't think there were many polls in NC in 2008 that showed Obama ahead, except maybe a few by point or two. RCP average heading into election day '08 showed slight lead lead for McCain. Obama won it by by less than a point on election day because of the massive, somewhat unexpected, turnout among black voters.

I think he can repeat it this year.

So far, Blacks make up 50% of all early & absentee voters in NC, indicating huge turnout once again:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

"That said, the number of absentee ballot applications leading into the first day of distribution of ballots is down by nearly half. In 2008 election officials had received 37,539 applications compared to 20,695 in 2012. The number of applications from registered Republicans is down more than Democrats. Registered Republicans composed 51% of the applications in 2008 and 42% in 2012."

[Adam Griffin]

Any bets on how big PPP will have Obama's lead in Ohio tonight? Do I hear 58-38%? 65-30%?

52-44.

[Adam Griffin]

These numbers appear to me much better than they may appear on the surface. You have a wider margin than the margin was in 2008 with a D+4 sample, as opposed to a D+8 sample. Could we see an 8-10 point MoV for Obama if turnout if D+8 this year? Perhaps Slick Willie's sweet nothings wafted into the ears of some of those SEOH blue-collar folk.

To paraphrase John McCain, the fundamentals of the Democratic Party are strong.

[Adam Griffin]

I apologize that this thread was hijacked by an argument between myself and Marokai. It's just that his apology was purposefully back handed and passive, "my standards are too high," and I know what that was implying. But seriously, sorry to the thread starter, IDS Legislator Griffin, for partaking in taking this thread off track.

Re: PPP poll news, a 5 point lead in Ohio is of course bad news for Romney. And getting to 270 becomes difficult (though not completely impmlausible) without it. But based on their teasing tweets, and the convo around the boards, and just the fact that it's PPP, I was expecting something close to a 10 pt lead. I was pleased to see I was a bit off.

Damn your apology! I was just about to close the thread until I read that.

In reality, Obama is performing very well in Ohio if this poll is accurate. When you look at the 2008 margin (4.6) and the electorate sample (D+8) and compare it to this margin (5) with a D+4 sample, you can inference that Obama would be sitting at a ~9-point margin of victory with the same electorate. Damn near double. As I said in the other thread and as pbrower hinted at, I think these gains have come from SE OH and are the result of Clinton's magic. This would be the only part of the state where Obama would have previously been underperforming that could swing enough to affect the statewide result in OH by this much.

[Adam Griffin]

September 7th - 9th. Entirely post-convention.

[Adam Griffin]

I was merely trying to say Obama must be doing well in more areas than just the SE because I do believe he will lose some ground in the Columbus metro where he did great and perhaps in the Cincinnati area as well. This would mean there is a heavy Obama trend in Cleveland and other industrial areas in the NE. That is my hypothesis.

I definitely agree with this. What I meant in regards to SE OH is that I think the greatest shift could be coming from there. It wouldn't add up to any huge percentage of the population (and therefore not be a large part of the change in and of itself), but I don't see how Obama could have gained in this scenario without gained in that area by at least a few points, as that is the area where Democrats have the softest floor when compared to their potential ceiling.

Maybe something like a 1-point gain in the cities, a 2-3 point gain in the metro areas/suburbs, and a 4-6 point gain in Appalachia. But, I'm just pulling these numbers out of my ass. Is there a regional breakdown in the poll? I'll have to look.