PPP NC/OH polls to be released tonight; Obama surging past 2008 margins

[MorningInAmerica]

Any bets on how big PPP will have Obama's lead in Ohio tonight? Do I hear 58-38%? 65-30%?

[MorningInAmerica]

Ahh... what is wrong with me tonight. I meant Ohio. Thanks.

[MorningInAmerica]

For my non-snarky guess, I'll go with 52-43%.

The last PPP poll from right after the Ryan pick was 48-45% Obama.

[MorningInAmerica]

Yeah, but 5-6% growth is still better than the 2% in America and about 0% in Europe. Of course the base matters...a lot.

Some say Africa could be the next China if they get their governance issues under control. A lot of those countries, while politically corrupt, are seeing huge amounts of economic growth. Granted, they start from a low baseline, but growth is growth.

[MorningInAmerica]

Yeah, MorningInAmerica, you should definitely emigrate to Kenya in search for better economic opportunities. And if you have a son there who some day decides to run for President, let's hope nobody will question his birth certificate.

When did I question anyone's birth certificate? I was stating an honest fact about Africa. http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Whats_driving_Africas_growth_2601 Are you just trying to be combative and start a fight, or are you just really dumb and don't understand what I was saying to begin with? If it's the latter, don't bother clicking on the link because you won''t understand it anyway.

[MorningInAmerica]

Wow....all that build up for that? How is 5 points "surging past 2008 results"? Their poll from May had Obama up 7 points (50-43%).

[MorningInAmerica]

Overly nitpicky, but it was 4.6 pts that he won by in 2008 in Ohio.

[MorningInAmerica]

Wow....all that build up for that? How is 5 points "surging past 2008 results"?

Obama won Ohio in 2008 by (using rounded numbers) 51-47, with a more favorable partisan breakdown. This poll has him up 5 with a less favorable partisan breakdown. I understand you spend your days trolling around the two 2012 boards, but this is very simple math.

Oh look, it's everyone's favorite word to throw around with people they disagree with. "Troll." How original. Such a simple way to dimiss things you'd rather not have to know about. Awfully protective over PPP eh? Like I said, Obama led 50-43% in May in Ohio, per PPP. This race could go anywhere.

[MorningInAmerica]

Oh look, it's everyone's favorite word to throw around with people they disagree with. "Troll." How original. Such a simple way to dimiss things you'd rather not have to know about.

You infest almost every thread on these boards and manage to be the hackiest of the hacks in virtually every single one.

Again, I think you would pretty much say that about anyone or anything you disagree with. It's the same with Krazen, JJ, and every other blue avatar you run around calling a "hack," or a "troll." I put up with your ridiculous partisan bullsh*t posts, so you can put up with mine. Isn't there an ignore button you could use somewhere?

Yes, and? PPP was comparing their results to the actual 2008 election results, not against their poll results of four months ago.

Like I said, I don't really see how essentially matching the 2008 result is "surging past the 2008 result." Obama won by 4.6 points in 2008, and all I did was question use of the term "surging." That got you all bent out of shape?

[MorningInAmerica]

If you're standing up in defense of JJ and Krazen's character, of all people, I think you're making my argument for me.

Ha. Another deflection. Why don't you just shout "troll" and "hack" a few more times?

Oh, and edited to say thank you sincerely, True Federalist.

[MorningInAmerica]

Oh look, it's everyone's favorite word to throw around with people they disagree with. "Troll." How original. Such a simple way to dimiss things you'd rather not have to know about.

You infest almost every thread on these boards and manage to be the hackiest of the hacks in virtually every single one.

Only because the hackiest hacks don't post as broadly.  In any case, I wouldn't call MIA a hack or a troll.  He's definitely highly partisan, but not so much that unlike the real hacks I don't think he's either delusional or putting on an act.

Highly partisan, unnecessarily confrontational, contributes very little to substantive discussion beyond the same notes, omnipresent, and on and on. We can sit here and split hairs if you like but I just see this as a semantic argument. I feel sort of uncomfortable drawing this out (particularly with you, someone I actually respect on here, and I feel like the more I draw this out the more it seems like I'm trying to make a big deal out of it when I barely care) but it's kind of weird having this bizarre "aha! I've got you now, Marokai!" response to something I said regarding PPP, as if I'm on their payroll. It just strikes me as, if not hackish, a bit immature; as if MIA is a 14 year old who just discovered his first political forum. And if that's the case, then I do apologize.

"I've got you now?" So let me get this straight. You address me first, call me names, then I respond by asking you why you're so protective over a polling agency, and then I'm the hack? Lovely logic you're applying there, Marokai. Did I ever even say "aha, I've got you now, Marakai"? Don't believe I did. So you have to put words in my mouth to fit your argument? I see. Seeing as how you "barely care," I'm sure you'll be willing to let this ridiculous discussion (that I'd like to remind everyone YOU started) drop now.

[MorningInAmerica]

I just think my standards have become a little too high for what I expect from others. So I apologize. I should remember what board this is.

Heh, yeah, that's exactly it. Your standards are too high. Again, you started this convo.

[MorningInAmerica]

I just think my standards have become a little too high for what I expect from others. So I apologize. I should remember what board this is.

Heh, yeah, that's exactly it. Your standards are too high. Again, you started this convo.

You don't have to be trying to prove Marokai right.  Sometimes the best thing you can do is follow the wisdom of Thumper's father, a wisdom both of you would benefit from I think,

I apologize that this thread was hijacked by an argument between myself and Marokai. It's just that his apology was purposefully back-handed and passive aggressive, "my standards are too high," and I know what that was implying. But seriously, sorry to the thread starter, IDS Legislator Griffin, for partaking in taking this thread off track.

Re: PPP poll news, a 5 point lead in Ohio is of course bad news for Romney. And getting to 270 becomes difficult (though not completely impmlausible) without it. But based on their teasing tweets, and the convo around the boards, and just the fact that it's PPP, I was expecting something close to a 10 pt lead. I was pleased to see I was a bit off.

[MorningInAmerica]

September 7th - 9th. Entirely post-convention.

So two full days of polling post jobs report, and say maybe half a day on Friday (allowing time for the information to disseminate). It would be interesting to see the daily breakdown. I'd like to know if Obama's got a moderate bounce of about 5 points nationally, and jobs report had no effect, or was he leading (as Nate Silver suggested) by 8-10 pts at one point, and then jobs report averaged him out at 5. But of course, the daily samples MoE would be so high that it may not be that telling.

[MorningInAmerica]

What is everyone going nuts about. He gained a point in NC and 2 in Ohio, at the height of his convention bounce. I think PPP got ahead of themselves based on nigh one numbers. Based on that, Romney probably did much better nights two and three

That's actually what I'm thinking. Based on PPPs tweets from late Friday, early Saturday, it's hard to believe they'd be talking up a 5 point lead like that. I'm thinking Friday and maybe some of Saturday responses looked really strong for Obama, and perhaps Sunday was strong for Romney.

Edited to note the Party ID of that NC poll is D+13 (47/34/20%). Was D+11 in 2008, and R+1 in 2004. Also, PPP had Obama leading Romney by a larger margin than this (49-46%) as recently as ONE month ago. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html