PPP NC/OH polls to be released tonight; Obama surging past 2008 margins

[Skill and Chance]

I actually think it's more that the entire Cleveland/Akron/Canton metro as well as the Mahoning valley have stayed about the same as 2008, or in the case of this poll, has swung to Obama from 2008. Similar deal in SE Ohio but there aren't that many people there to make a difference. I think the Columbus area will be swinging back as much as the national average and perhaps Cincinnati as well.

But remember that suspiciously close WV poll last month?  I think that points to the (weird IMO) Appalachia hypothesis.

[Skill and Chance]

I was merely trying to say Obama must be doing well in more areas than just the SE because I do believe he will lose some ground in the Columbus metro where he did great and perhaps in the Cincinnati area as well. This would mean there is a heavy Obama trend in Cleveland and other industrial areas in the NE. That is my hypothesis.

Appalachia also has interesting implications for VA.  Romney could be running behind McCain in rural VA and well ahead of 2008 in NOVA