PPP NC/OH polls to be released tonight; Obama surging past 2008 margins

[Tender Branson]

As a reference:

PPP's mid-September 2008 Ohio poll showed McCain ahead by 4.

[Tender Branson]

In North Carolina, 2008-like margins would suggest a tie in North Carolina, which is same thing the PPP poll of NC showed last week. Don't think there were many polls in NC in 2008 that showed Obama ahead, except maybe a few by point or two. RCP average heading into election day '08 showed slight lead lead for McCain. Obama won it by by less than a point on election day because of the massive, somewhat unexpected, turnout among black voters.

I think he can repeat it this year.

So far, Blacks make up 50% of all early & absentee voters in NC, indicating huge turnout once again:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[Tender Branson]

I expected more like Obama+7 in OH and Obama+3 in NC.

But "looking like 2008" probably means what PPP just released.

[Tender Branson]

Entered them to the database.

But isn't it a little bit odd that pollsters refuse to include Gary Johnson in their polls when he's actually on the ballot in NC ? A previous Zogby poll has shown that Johnson could take away about 2-3% from Romney in the state.