Politico: Both campaigns believe Obama has advantage, that Ohio is lean D

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80949.html?hp=t1

President Barack Obama heads out of the national political conventions with a much clearer path to winning, top advisers to Mitt Romney privately concede.

The Romney campaign, while pleasantly surprised by Obama’s lackluster prime-time performance, said the post-convention bounce they hoped for fell well short of expectations and privately lament that state-by-state polling numbers — most glaringly in Ohio — are working in the president’s favor.

“Their map has many more routes to victory,” said a top Republican official. Two officials intimately involved in the GOP campaign said Ohio leans clearly in Obama’s favor now, with a high single-digit edge, based on their internal tracking numbers of conservative groups. Romney can still win the presidency if he loses Ohio, but it’s extremely difficult.

The Obama and Romney campaigns anticipate little movement in national polls before the first debate on Oct. 3, which both see as the most important day of this campaign. They also see eye-to-eye on their belief the election will come down to whether Romney can persuade voters he understands the problems of ordinary people and that his solutions are at least marginally better for turning things around economically.

[Lief 🗽]

The discussion of the two campaign's strategies is also interesting. Romney is focusing on a one-size fits all message based on economic statistics and backed up by his money advantage, while the Obama campaign is operating on a more micro level:

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[Adam Griffin]

Isn't this indicative of the parties themselves? It makes sense that the Republicans would use a monochromatic, one-size-fits-all-whites approach to campaigning while the Democrats use a rainbow coalition strategy to appeal to all their niches.

And before anyone gets their panties in a wad, travel back in time a couple of weeks.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Kind of a sad indictment of Romney's campaign message that it boils down to a single very vague, undetailed message, while Obama's campaign has so much effective material to pull from they can basically run a dozen micro-campaigns. Romney just doesn't have one message, he basically has no message. Just lots of cash.

[You kip if you want to...]

Kind of a sad indictment of Romney's campaign message that it boils down to a single very vague, undetailed message, while Obama's campaign has so much effective material to pull from they can basically run a dozen micro-campaigns. Romney just doesn't have one message, he basically has no message. Just lots of cash.

And every time Romney tries that, it sort've just fizzles out like the whole "are ypu better off than you were four years ago?" last week and the "I did build that!"

[Eraserhead]

I find it funny that Politico is still trying to push this idea of Obama bombing in his speech. I've yet to talk to a normal, real life person who didn't think it was a great speech.

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

While it's true there are paths to victory without OH, Romney certainly can't concede it, and the money spent there will hurt him in other areas. Can you imagine the headline "Romney pulls out of Ohio"? Disastrous.

[Earthling]

That line would be the end of his campaign.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Kind of a sad indictment of Romney's campaign message that it boils down to a single very vague, undetailed message, while Obama's campaign has so much effective material to pull from they can basically run a dozen micro-campaigns. Romney just doesn't have one message, he basically has no message. Just lots of cash.

Romney is a fundamentally bland, unappealing candidate. He can't win if it's Romney vs. Obama. He basically has to make the election Obama vs. Not-Obama.

While it's true there are paths to victory without OH, Romney certainly can't concede it, and the money spent there will hurt him in other areas. Can you imagine the headline "Romney pulls out of Ohio"? Disastrous.

He can't pull out of Ohio because he has no other viable route to victory. I realize it may be technically possible for him to get to 269 EV without winning Ohio, but the real problem is that if he can't win Ohio, it's unlikely he'll be able to win Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, or Virginia, and he needs to win at least two of them if he loses Ohio.

[pepper11]

He can't pull out of Ohio because he has no other viable route to victory. I realize it may be technically possible for him to get to 269 EV without winning Ohio, but the real problem is that if he can't win Ohio, it's unlikely he'll be able to win Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, or Virginia, and he needs to win at least two of them if he loses Ohio.

Below is BY FAR Romney's best shot..

[後援会]

Below is BY FAR Romney's best shot..

[Joe Biden 2020]

He can't pull out of Ohio because he has no other viable route to victory. I realize it may be technically possible for him to get to 269 EV without winning Ohio, but the real problem is that if he can't win Ohio, it's unlikely he'll be able to win Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, or Virginia, and he needs to win at least two of them if he loses Ohio.

Below is BY FAR Romney's best shot..

That leaves VERY little room for error for Romney.  By my counts your map is 273-265 Romney.  He loses ANY more of the swing states and he will have just wasted 8 years of campaigning!

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Romney can't pull out of Ohio even if it does lean Obama. He has to win almost every other swing state (NC, FL, VA, CO, IA, NH, WI), and possibly one or two other leaners, if he wants to get to 270. Their only hope is to dump even more money into Ohio.

[NHI]

If Romney loses Ohio, then he's lost the election. To win we need Ohio.

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

OH 2012 could very well be PA 2008 for Romney, alot of money wasted on something he can just never quite reach.

[TJ in Oregon]

Wasn't Romney supposed to be good at raising money? If so, why should he be pulling out of states he has any chance of winning at all? If he campaigns in them he either forces Obama to use resources in states he "should win" or not campaign there at all and risk an '08 Indiana result. Even if he loses the Lean D states, simply taking the resources to have some message there will help build the Republican base there in the future. People respond to candidates giving them attention and taking the time to taylor a message to them. One of the constant complaints right now about the Republican Party is that its base has become too narrow. Well here is your chance to try and grow it some.

Also, Romney is trying first and foremost to win the election, not run his campaign as a business and try to maximize electoral votes. If it means ceding Ohio to lock up Florida, it just isn't worth it for him because he's already lost the election anyway at that point. I can understand not bothering with MI and PA, but pulling out of OH would be insane.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

If Romney loses Ohio, then he's lost the election. To win we need Ohio.

True, Ohio is one of those states he needs to win. Any speculation "can Romney win without Ohio" is plain sensless.

[Badger]

In other news, sky blue & water wet.

[Reaganfan]

You want straight talk about Ohio? I'll give it to you. Obama's ahead but it's close. Extremely close.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

You want straight talk about Ohio? I'll give it to you. Obama's ahead but it's Not close. Extremely Not close.

[Reds4]

I definitely think Obama is ahead in Ohio.. but if the Romney campaign or RNC are even thinking about pulling out of Ohio they are crazy... it's winnable... and they absolutely have to have it.

[sg0508]

The GOP has never won without Ohio and this year will be no different. That state is in every model I've seen for Romney winning the electoral college.

[Yank2133]

You want straight talk about Ohio? I'll give it to you. Obama's ahead but it's close. Extremely close.

Mitt's internals say otherwise.......

[Likely Voter]

I think the most interesting thing in the article is the analysis of how the Obama team are micro-targeting and the Romney campaign is going with the blunt force approach. I have seen the same analysis from Charlie Cook and I've also scene analysis on  how Obama's online and social networking campaign is state of the art.  It just seems that the Romney campaign is fighting using yesterday's techniques. The fact that they are focused so much on the white vote is another sign of this old school approach. Of course their target market is older so maybe yesterday's techniques will work.

[Niemeyerite]

Obama was leading in OH before the DNC. And considering that the DNC was ALL about Ohio, he should be leading by 7-8 points right now.