ARG: Romney 49%, Obama 46%

[MorningInAmerica]

2 days of this 3 day poll was conducted AFTER Michelle Obama's speech. One day was conducted AFTER Bill Clinton's speech.

Sample size: 1200 likely voters
Sample dates: September 4-6, 2012
Margin of error: ± 3 percentage points
http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Obama - 46%
Romney - 49%

Party ID is D+4

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[Yank2133]

Mitt getting 5% of AA, and Obama getting under 90%......yeah sure.

[Supersonic]

Good party ID sample.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

All anyone needs to know about ARG is they had Obama at 50% in WV in 2008, then after all the other polls showed it to be crap their results suddenly matched the others.

[後援会]

Mitt getting 5% of AA, and Obama getting under 90%......yeah sure.

That's actually pretty accurate-looking. If we distribute undecided AA's in the same ratios decided AA's have fallen, we're looking at Obama taking 94.7% and Romney taking 5.3%. Which is pretty much the Obama/McCain margin.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Fake pollster.

[Tender Branson]

Good to see that Obama is actually ahead, considering it's ARG and you have to assume the opposite of what they are showing is right.

[Likely Voter]

what a bizarre time to conduct a national poll, halfway through one of the conventions. Could be accurate, maybe not. Who knows?

I hope the other big pollsters wait a few days and let both conventions sink in before going back into the field with polls. Until then we will continue to have the trackers and periodic (and perhaps less than reliable) polls to argue about.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Meanwhile, Nate Silver gives Obama his best chance yet (77.3%).

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

OMG GOOD NEWS FOR ROMNEY!!!!!  ROMNEY! ROMNEY!! *starts foaming at the mouth*HES LEADING THE MUSLIM OBAMA!!! THERES HOPE AFTER ALLLLLLL!!! ROMNEYYYYYYYYY!!!USA!

[Wiz in Wis]

Mitt getting 5% of AA, and Obama getting under 90%......yeah sure.

That's actually pretty accurate-looking. If we distribute undecided AA's in the same ratios decided AA's have fallen, we're looking at Obama taking 94.7% and Romney taking 5.3%. Which is pretty much the Obama/McCain margin.

You really shouldn't defend an ARG survey here... it's just bad forum etiquette