Republican Super Pacs pull out of Michigan, Pennsylvania

[Minnesota Mike]

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/09/conservatives_for_mitt_romney.html

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[Lief 🗽]

Wow, John McCain at least waited until October to give up on Michigan, and he never gave up on Pennsylvania.

[Minnesota Mike]

Wow, John McCain at least waited until October to give up on Michigan, and he never gave up on Pennsylvania.

Not sure if this is a smart move (stop wasting money in a state you can't win) or a dumb one (waving the white flag might early). It does indicate to me that while the Republican Super Pacs have a ton of money, they do not have an unlimited supply.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's much more difficult to change someone's opinion about an incumbent, no matter how much money you spend.

[Supersonic]

I can understand Pennsylvania, but Obama only leads by 2.4 points in Michigan on the RCP average. Rather premature to withdraw now, although honestly, it is probably for the best.

[mondale84]

Romney is losing ground. Desperate Republicans are getting desperate.

[Likely Voter]

So now everyone agrees that Obama has 237 EVs and Romney has 191 and that battle is over just nine states: FL, OH, NC, VA, WI, CO, IA, NV, NH.

It is a good thing that ROmney put WI into play, otherwise his options to get to 270 were very limited.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I wouldn't call this "giving up." I'd call it "setting priorities." By virtue of the electorate, Ohio pretty much has to be won before Michigan or Pennsylvania. So it's much smarter to use your money locking up the Floridas and Ohios than gambling with it for the Michigans. If things move enough that the Republicans are confident about Ohio and Florida, then these PACs should move onto Pennsylvania. But right now, I think this is a smart play.

[Torie]

In theory, team Romney does not communicate with the PACS (that would be illegal), so it is their judgment, not his.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I wouldn't call this "giving up." I'd call it "setting priorities." By virtue of the electorate, Ohio pretty much has to be won before Michigan or Pennsylvania. So it's much smarter to use your money locking up the Floridas and Ohios than gambling with it for the Michigans. If things move enough that the Republicans are confident about Ohio and Florida, then these PACs should move onto Pennsylvania. But right now, I think this is a smart play.

It is highly unlikely that Romney will be "locking up" either of those states.

[J. J.]

Wow, John McCain at least waited until October to give up on Michigan, and he never gave up on Pennsylvania.

PA, I can understand.  MI is reasonably close.

[Lief 🗽]

In theory, team Romney does not communicate with the PACS (that would be illegal), so it is their judgment, not his.

I'm sure it's not difficult for a third person to talk to one and then talk to the other.

[sg0508]

Despite the economies, both of these states are "bluish" states and Romney's chances here weren't good to begin with.

Romney MUST concentrate on FL and OH. Either he goes 2 for 2 in those or it's long over.  FL seems to be the one that is most likely to flop too.  The fact that Obama is polling ahead there at this stage (right before the DNC) is not good.

[J. J.]

In theory, team Romney does not communicate with the PACS (that would be illegal), so it is their judgment, not his.

I'm sure it's not difficult for a third person to talk to one and then talk to the other.

For that matter, Romney might want to control the message in those states.

MI is strange for a pull out.

[Maxwell]

The decision in Michigan is really not smart and I think it will backfire badly for Mitt Romney.

[Likely Voter]

Well the Romney campaign and the GOP have spent $0 in PA and MI. They were always states where only the SuperPacs were trying to expand the map. Same is true for NM and MN. And it was just last week that the party started spending in WI.

[J. J.]

The decision in Michigan is really not smart and I think it will backfire badly for Mitt Romney.

It wasn't his decision.

[Supersonic]

At the end of the day this is only one SuperPAC that is withdrawing.

Not exactly terminal.

[Hoverbored123]

I wouldn't call this "giving up." I'd call it "setting priorities." By virtue of the electorate, Ohio pretty much has to be won before Michigan or Pennsylvania. So it's much smarter to use your money locking up the Floridas and Ohios than gambling with it for the Michigans. If things move enough that the Republicans are confident about Ohio and Florida, then these PACs should move onto Pennsylvania. But right now, I think this is a smart play.

I'm inclined to agree.  The Romney campaign and PACs have way more money than the Democrats, but this is probably a tactical move based on strategy.  Ohio is more likely to flip than other "Rust Belt" states, so it makes sense that it would have priority.  Ohio and especially Florida are crucial to the Republican strategy; Pennsylvania and Michigan are not. 

That being said, the election is more than two months out.  There's plenty of time for the campaign to go back into those states if and when the time is right.  I can understand why this can seem like a setback, but looking at the nationwide trends, Obama is more likely to lose ground than gain ground as we get closer to Election Day.  I'm willing to bet those two states will be competitive, but the PAC is likely going to focus their energy elsewhere until the polls are more favorable.  It's also been pointed out that this is a PAC we're talking about and not the Romney campaign.

[JFK-Democrat]

Wish they would give up the voter suppression BS too.

[Devils30]

Michigan is usually even more blue than PA. It's only those local polls that have a GOP lean that show MI competitive. Even rasmussen has Obama up 6 or more there.

[J. J.]

Michigan is usually even more blue than PA. It's only those local polls that have a GOP lean that show MI competitive. Even rasmussen has Obama up 6 or more there.

Actually, Rasmussen has not polled since July.  PPP went from +14 to +7 and some of the lesser polls are showing it closer.

In a number of elections since 1980, MI was more Republican than PA.

[Maxwell]

The decision in Michigan is really not smart and I think it will backfire badly for Mitt Romney.

It wasn't his decision.

ooooo, looks like my reading comphrension isn't shining right now...

[wildfood]

Smart strategy, even if it sends a bad signal.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Romney is unlikely to win either state unless he already has 270 elsewhere.  It's possible those PACs aren't pulling out to spend the money elsewhere on Romney.  They may decide to send some to help Berg, Brown, Mourdock, and others in the quest for 51 Senate Republicans.