BREAKING NEWS: Virgil Goode officially on the ballot in VA

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Goode is likely to bring out some new hardcore conservative voters as opposed to actually taking them from Romney.

Don't forget Pat Buchanan in 2000 - Republicans tend to be far more disciplined about holding the party line and not voting for spoilers than Democrats.

Goode will likely get 1%.

[Likely Voter]

If Goode were no threat to Romney, why is the GOP questioning his ballot access?

RE: Romney winning w/o VA and above maps
If the election is close enough for Romney to lose VA, I doubt he is going to win NV or NH to make up the dif.  THat puts all his cards on WI (along with winning all the other swing states).

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If Goode were no threat to Romney, was is the GOP questioning his ballot access?

Because they didn't want to take even the small risk.

[Likely Voter]

That's my point. He isn't no threat or a huge threat but he is some kind of threat in a close election.

In 2000 and 2004 the election was decided by one state. In 2000 that state would have likely flipped if a 3rd party wasn't on the ballot (Nader). In 2004 if a 3rd party candidate could have syphoned off 1.2 from Bush, Kerry would have won the election.

VA is considered one of the potential tipping point states of a close election. 538 has it as the second most likely tipping point state with 16.7% of scenarios having VA decide the election. Goode could easily get 2% in VA. Therefore this is a real and present danger to Romney if the election is close to a tie, Goode could tip the balance.

This map shows a very plausible scenario that is likely scaring the GOP...A very close PV, possibly even with a small Romney lead and VA as the tipping point.

[Eraserhead]

This won't matter unless the state is really, really, really close (which is possible but not likely). It's hard to imagine Goode actually getting much more than 1% (and probably at least half of that 1% wouldn't have voted for a Mormon anyway). Still, it's obviously not great news for Romney.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Glad democracy is working, but knowing Romney, they will quickly bury Goode anyway by digging up some of his many controversial statements.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

This won't matter unless the state is really, really, really close (which is possible but not likely). It's hard to imagine Goode actually getting much more than 1% (and probably at least half of that 1% wouldn't have voted for a Mormon anyway). Still, it's obviously not great news for Romney.

Yeah, this would only matter in a 50-50 race.  Still, if Goode's going to have a shot at 1 or 2% in any state, it's his own.

Glad democracy is working, but knowing Romney, they will quickly bury Goode anyway by digging up some of his many controversial statements.

I don't think Romney's going to waste his money attempting to shrink the margin of a third party candidate.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3ALwKeSEYs

I knew this was going to be the link even before I clicked it

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

What is Goode polling in Virginia?  3-4%?  I hardly think that number is going to hold up all the way until November... but I doubt this is good news for Team Romney.  Throw Virginia into Obama's column and...

Obama is at 260 in my estimation.  His paths to victory include...

IA + one other state

CO + one other state

just WI

just FL

just OH

just NC

... and he currently leads in the poll averages of all these states, and right after the RNC at that.  It's a hell of a tough path to victory for Romney at the moment. 

[Vosem]

The way I see it, this map is the Romney minimum victory. (It's 269-269, but a scenario where a majority of state delegations are not Republican is one where Romney's already lost.) Yes, you can switch around a few states if you want; but removing Virginia wouldn't kill Romney the way removing Florida, Ohio, or North Carolina would. (And, as others have noted, there're reasons to doubt Goode will be a significant player.)

[Sbane]

Unless the election in VA is decided by less than half a point, this won't make a difference. The problem is that the way this election is shaping up, that is entirely possible.

[renegadedemocrat]

It will make a difference in Virginia, but it definitely won't nationally.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Romney - 272
Obama - 266

without Virginia

although I still think Romney has a shot at VA even with Goode on the ballot

[mondale84]

Romney - 272
Obama - 266

without Virginia

although I still think Romney has a shot at VA even with Goode on the ballot

The fact that Romney has a ceiling of ~270-280 EVs while Obama has a ceiling of ~290-340 EVs says a lot about where things are headed...

[morgieb]

Probably irrelevant, but still good news.

[NHI]

Unfortunately, since third parties tend to overpoll before the election, Goode most likely won't affect the outcome in the state of Virginia, much less the nation.

[Maxwell]

Glad he made it to the ballot, as did Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

As others have already pointed out, Goode is likely only going to get 1 to 2% of the vote, but Virgina could very well be the tipping point state in a close election, so it could matter.  Not that more than a third of the Goode vote would likely have voted for Romney if Goode had failed to make the ballot.  The remainder would have either voted for Johnson or stayed home.

[Stranger in a strange land]

YES YES YES YES YES!!!!!!!    

Not that this is decisive, but it makes Mitt's path to 270 that much more difficult.

[pbrower2a]

Romney can still win without Virginia, so this isn't that catastrophic.

He would need political miracles against an FDR-style campaign that creates hope instead of hoping that everything happens to go right for inexplicable reasons. 

He's having trouble in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina.

[Supersonic]

Romney can still win without Virginia, so this isn't that catastrophic.

He would need political miracles against an FDR-style campaign that creates hope instead of hoping that everything happens to go right for inexplicable reasons. 

He's having trouble in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina.

A) This isn't 2008 anymore.

B) What are you smoking?

[Donerail]

Romney can still win without Virginia, so this isn't that catastrophic.

He would need political miracles against an FDR-style campaign that creates hope instead of hoping that everything happens to go right for inexplicable reasons. 

He's having trouble in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina.

A) This isn't 2008 anymore.

B) What are you smoking?

Please, Supersonic. We all know of Romney's troubles in North Carolina. It's one of those swing states that are almost certain to go Obama. Romney'll be lucky if he can hold Indiana, Arizona, Montana, and Missouri; he's somewhat likely in Georgia but will possibly still lose GA/SC as well.

[Supersonic]

Romney can still win without Virginia, so this isn't that catastrophic.

He would need political miracles against an FDR-style campaign that creates hope instead of hoping that everything happens to go right for inexplicable reasons. 

He's having trouble in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina.

A) This isn't 2008 anymore.

B) What are you smoking?

Please, Supersonic. We all know of Romney's troubles in North Carolina. It's one of those swing states that are almost certain to go Obama. Romney'll be lucky if he can hold Indiana, Arizona, Montana, and Missouri; he's somewhat likely in Georgia but will possibly still lose GA/SC as well.

So you think Obama is running an FDR style campaign on 'hope and change'?

You also think he will probably lose Georgia and South Carolina?

Bloody 'ell. I despair.

EDIT: Okay I'm guessing your comment was sarcastic, I took the bait. Fail.

[Lief 🗽]

pbrower is right though that Romney is having problems in Colorado, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. He basically has to win all of them to win to just narrowly win the electoral college.

[Silent Hunter]

This might not be enough to switch VA, but Romney's now going to have to put more resources in that state that could be used elsewhere.