New West Virginia poll to be released tomorrow

[Tender Branson]

http://thewestvirginiapoll.com/data-files

Their last poll from May had Romney ahead by 17.

[tmthforu94]

Anticipation!

My guess:
Romney/Ryan - 57%
Obama/Biden - 36%

[Tender Branson]

My estimate:

53-39 Romney

[morgieb]

55-35.

[5280]

Romney - 53
Obama - 40

[morgieb]

I'd love if it Obama clawed back though, as states like this should never vote Republican, but he won't.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

States like this should never vote Republican.

Bullinks. The economy of West Virginia depends to a huge part on coal, and Romney's policies would be better for that than Obama's.

[Napoleon]

States like this should never vote Republican.

Bullinks. The economy of West Virginia depends to a huge part on coal, and Romney's policies would be better for that than Obama's.

Yeah I don't see why people here find that so hard to understand.

[pbrower2a]

States like this should never vote Republican.

Bullinks. The economy of West Virginia depends to a huge part on coal, and Romney's policies would be better for that than Obama's.

Romney is great for the coal tycoons and executives who are about as reactionary and ruthless as their counterparts in Germany about 80 years ago. Workers might be a different topic.

West Virginia used to vote reliably D -- when the United Mine Workers and other unions were powerful. Despite the bucolic image of West Virginia in places, this is a heavy-industry state with much glass and chemical industry. It may be that the sort of coal-mining now done (strip mining) more heavily than underground mining more relies upon right-wing decisions and requires less labor. 

[pa2011]

predict 58 to 32

[Phony Moderate]

States like this should never vote Republican.

Bullinks. The economy of West Virginia depends to a huge part on coal, and Romney's policies would be better for that than Obama's.

Which is pretty funny from a UK perspective.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just to correct a very common error; the coal industry in West Virginia now only employs a small fraction of the numbers it used to (I think it's less than 5% of the workforce now). Treat that fact in whatever way you feel like, etc.

[J. J.]

Just to correct a very common error; the coal industry in West Virginia now only employs a small fraction of the numbers it used to (I think it's less than 5% of the workforce now). Treat that fact in whatever way you feel like, etc.

I think it is much large, but also remember that WV is also a major gas and oil producing state.  Some of the issues are similar.

The largest non service company is a coal company.

[You kip if you want to...]

West Virginian miners =/= European (UK to be specific) coal miners

[Filuwaúrdjan]

West Virginian miners =/= European (UK to be specific) coal miners

The issue isn't 'miners' because there aren't many left.

Anyways, let's at least try to avoid exceptionalism. The reality is more interesting.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I call 58-35

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It's probably more a "cultural" issue here. Obama, just like Kerry and Gore (v.2000) doesn't have appeal in the Appalachia, especially state like WV. We've been through this many times, all right...

Of course, WV was a solidly partisan state in presidential elections (for example, voting for Dukakis while Maryland, which was many times and remains solidly Democratic, voted for Bush). Yes, Dukakis was, pretty much like Kerry, not very appealing individual for WV types, but times were diffrent.

I'm not sure if this is just Obama factor. I'm not sure Hillary would be shoo-in for WV nowdays.

Back in 2000 we all thought WV going blue was a fluke (like Indiana going red recently). But it seems, with cultural issues playing such a large role and parties being defined by them, WV will be like Arkansas: strongly Democratic state... except for presidential level.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

States like this should never vote Republican.

Bullinks. The economy of West Virginia depends to a huge part on coal, and Romney's policies would be better for that than Obama's.

Yeah I don't see why people here find that so hard to understand.

Coal execs? Sure. Coal miners (the ones left)? Hell no.

Anyway, Obama seems to be spending in the Charleston media market (though mostly to target SE Ohio and SW Virginia). Obama has a hard floor in the state for the simple reason that they still hate Republicans, but he also has a low ceiling.

[Napoleon]

Just to correct a very common error; the coal industry in West Virginia now only employs a small fraction of the numbers it used to (I think it's less than 5% of the workforce now). Treat that fact in whatever way you feel like, etc.

While that's true, the success of coal in West Virginia spills over into other economic sectors in the state.

[Napoleon]

States like this should never vote Republican.

Bullinks. The economy of West Virginia depends to a huge part on coal, and Romney's policies would be better for that than Obama's.

Yeah I don't see why people here find that so hard to understand.

Coal execs? Sure. Coal miners (the ones left)? Hell no.

Anyway, Obama seems to be spending in the Charleston media market (though mostly to target SE Ohio and SW Virginia). Obama has a hard floor in the state for the simple reason that they still hate Republicans, but he also has a low ceiling.

Would love an intellectual argument supporting this position.

[Tender Branson]

My estimate:

53-39 Romney

Hmm. Almost nailed it:



http://www.dailymail.com/News/201208300213

[The Ex-Factor]

So....is Jay Rockefeller a goner?

[morgieb]

So....is Jay Rockefeller a goner?

He's probably gonna retire anyway.

It depends whether SMC is willing to give up her safe house seat.

At least it's better than I thought, and downballot looks pretty gun.

[Miles]

Maybe Manchin will actually crack 70%.

[morgieb]

Maybe Manchin will actually crack 70%.

Upballot effects won't allow that IMO.