CT Quinnipiac (LV): Obama +7

[Likely Voter]

Connecticut Quinnipiac University Poll

Obama: 52
Romney: 45

Senate race
McMahon: 49
Murphy: 46

LINK

Methodology:
From August 22 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,472 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

[timothyinMD]

Incredible, but great news!  Connecticut is in play, and is gonna neutralize a potential Repub loss in Missouri

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Excellent news for Mr. Romney!  (oh, this is fun!)

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Incredible, but great news!  Connecticut is in play, and is gonna neutralize a potential Repub loss in Missouri

:facepalm:

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Quinnipiac thinks Connecticut is more Republican than Pennsylvania.

[Eraserhead]

Incredible, but great news!  Connecticut is in play, and is gonna neutralize a potential Repub loss in Missouri

lol

[MorningInAmerica]

One thing is becoming increasingly clear. Connecticut is not going to be won by the Democrats by the 20-30 pt margin it was won in 2008. Connecticut could well be within ten points this year, which puts it closer to the 2004 result than 2008.

[You kip if you want to...]

In before "rich folks hacked off by Obama's class warfare."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing is becoming increasingly clear. Connecticut is not going to be won by the Democrats by the 20-30 pt margin it was won in 2008. Connecticut could well be within ten points this year, which puts it closer to the 2004 result than 2008.

24pts.

Anyways, it doesn't matter. Obama can take a hit in safe states.

[Tender Branson]

Incredible, but great news!  Connecticut is in play, and is gonna neutralize a potential Repub loss in Missouri

I think we shut this board down for the next 3 or so weeks.

The polls will be crazy and the hacks will be crazy too.

[Eraserhead]

One thing is becoming increasingly clear. Connecticut is not going to be won by the Democrats by the 20-30 pt margin it was won in 2008. Connecticut could well be within ten points this year, which puts it closer to the 2004 result than 2008.

24pts.

Anyways, it doesn't matter. Obama can take a hit in safe states.

Obama won CT by 22.37% in 2008.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama won't get 60% here again... that was probably a Dem ceiling he hit in 2008. If Obama bleed support among the wealthy this state will be closer than he would like, but he will still win it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing is becoming increasingly clear. Connecticut is not going to be won by the Democrats by the 20-30 pt margin it was won in 2008. Connecticut could well be within ten points this year, which puts it closer to the 2004 result than 2008.

24pts.

Anyways, it doesn't matter. Obama can take a hit in safe states.

Obama won CT by 22.37% in 2008.

This is what happens when I try to do maths without a calculator, hahaha.

[Eraserhead]

One thing is becoming increasingly clear. Connecticut is not going to be won by the Democrats by the 20-30 pt margin it was won in 2008. Connecticut could well be within ten points this year, which puts it closer to the 2004 result than 2008.

24pts.

Anyways, it doesn't matter. Obama can take a hit in safe states.

Obama won CT by 22.37% in 2008.

This is what happens when I try to do maths without a calculator, hahaha.

[You kip if you want to...]

One thing is becoming increasingly clear. Connecticut is not going to be won by the Democrats by the 20-30 pt margin it was won in 2008. Connecticut could well be within ten points this year, which puts it closer to the 2004 result than 2008.

24pts.

Anyways, it doesn't matter. Obama can take a hit in safe states.

Yes. Probably why the national polls are much closer than those in Ohio, Virginia, Florida etc would imply.

[pa2011]

Makes sense it will be closer considering how many Connecticut residents have connections to the Financial Services industry/Wall Street.  Without the war in Iraq as a big issue, some of these states will revert back to more realistic margins for Democrats. But still don't think there is any chance Romney could win it or that he will waist money trying.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Connecticut is not in play.

[Eraserhead]

I could see Romney maybe carrying it by a point or two if he managed to win nationally by a margin similar to Obama's '08 margin. Good luck with that though.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Connecticut is not in play.

True, but it looks like it'll have a hefty swing to Romney and leave Obama with a 8 to 10 point margin on Election Day.  All three polls in the past month have been by reasonably respectable pollster and have shown a 7 to 8 point margin for the incumbent.

[Sbane]

Is this good news for Obama? I have been wondering why the swing states have seemed more Obama friendly than the country at large, and perhaps a bit of the answer can be found here. We already knew he would lose support in the great plains and the rural areas of the mountain west (so from a landslide GOP victory to an epic landslide), but perhaps he is losing support in wealthier blue states as well. I think California will be at least swinging back as much as the country, if not trending Republican. Washington and certainly Oregon seem ready to do so as well. Nevada is trending Republican but the Republicans need more than a little trend to win that state. Could also explain why Colorado and Iowa polling hasn't been so hot for Obama while he is holding support in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia to a certain extent.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think there will be some bleed in New York as well. If CT is going to be within 10%, then I fail to see how Mittens doesn't match or exceed Bush in places like Staten Island, Nassau, Suffolk, and Rockland. What will hold Romney down in New York is the upstate working class voters and the working class Archie Bunker types in South Brooklyn who elected Turner last September. He appears to be running only 2% ahead of McCain in the new NY-27 and is down by 10% in the Syracuse district.

It maybe that it is the infrastructure and organization that is propping up Obama in NC, VA, FL, and OH. 

[Sbane]

Yes, the campaign is something to take into account. I would love it if Nate went on the road again to check out the GOTV operations like he did in 2008. It could be quite possible the Obama campaign is much more organized on the ground than the Romney camp.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

We need a thread that lists the number of offices, volunteers and paid staff each candidate has in the key swing states. Particulary OH, FL, VA and NC.