Romney's chances in Nevada and Colorado

[Devils30]

 The polling shows both tight with Obama slightly ahead in each. However, I think a lot of people are forgetting that Dems have typically overperformed polling in both.
 In 2008 Obama was favored to win by about 5 in NV and won by over 12. Not a single poll had Reid beating Angle prior to 2010 and yet he won re-election by over 5 points.
  Obama overperformed his polling in CO in 2008 by about 4 points and Bennet never led either but prevailed on election day. Maybe it's the language barrier with the growing hispanic population that's the problem but there's every reason to believe Obama may in the end prevail in both by rather comfortable margins (5-10)

[PittsburghSean]

Nevada's going to Obama unless something dramatic happens -- like really dramatic.

As for Colorado, that state's very interesting. I was born in Denver, and Denver has doubled its size since I've moved out of there. Denver is hugely Democratic. Boulder is also a big Democratic stronghold with its very liberal college culture and some other characters that are there (no offense was meant). Additionally, Latinos are a strong portion of the liberal base in Colorado right now because of the Republican talk against them. Don't think for a minute that the Dream Act executive order won't be a big deal because it will. A lot of them make up the suburbs of Denver, which I'll get to in a minute.

On the flip side, you have Colorado Springs. Colorado Springs has two huge groups of people: the Air Force Academy and Focus on the Family. Both are very conservative and will vote Republican by a 65-35 percent ratio. Additionally, the western slope has a lot of Mormons and don't think for a second that they won't be happy with seeing the first Mormon president. Grand Junction is very Republican.

The areas that swing: Fort Collins and inside the E-470 loop. The E-470 loop is very important. That's where the people are and where the voters swing. Aurora, Lakewood, Arvada, Westminster, Broomfield, Thornton, Englewood, Littleton, etc. Those voters have voted Democrat in the Bennet-Buck race, and have voted Democrat since 2006. They voted Republican in 2004, 2000 and 1996. So if the loop stays like 2010, Obama squeaks Colorado. If the suburbs go Republican, then Romney will squeak it.

I doubt Colorado will be decisive. 

[後援会]

Nevada is a goner.

But in terms of party registration, the GOP is completely thwomping the Democrats in Colorado.

[PittsburghSean]

Nevada is a goner.

But in terms of party registration, the GOP is completely thwomping the Democrats in Colorado.

If you look at the Secretary of State's office in Colorado though, there are still 3 in 10 voters who call them "unaffiliated." Another quarter to 30% call themselves Democrats. So those unaffiliated voters -- a lot of which live in that E-470 loop -- will decide where the 9 Electoral Votes go.

[krazen1211]

Colorado: 50%
Nevada: 20%

[J. J.]

  Obama overperformed his polling in CO in 2008 by about 4 points and Bennet never led either but prevailed on election day. Maybe it's the language barrier with the growing hispanic population that's the problem but there's every reason to believe Obama may in the end prevail in both by rather comfortable margins (5-10)

Don't let Alcon hear you.  

Obama underpolled in CO, NM, NV, and even AZ in 2008.  I don't know if it a language barrier or some sort "lying to pollsters" situation.  They all have large Hispanic populations of Mexican origin.  We'll see if it happens in this cycle or if we Romney overpolls in TX.

[renegadedemocrat]

Nevada will go Democrat, unless something strange happens. Colorado I think will go to Obama, but by a smaller margin. I do think that in the end Obama will carry Colorado by around 5-6%

[5280]

You have to remember, unemployment rate is 8.3% in CO, at national average.  People are going to vote with their wallets this election.  Romney could pull a 50% and Obama 48% at the end if turnout is higher for Republicans in the suburbs. I can see Jefferson and Arapahoe county swing for Romney, Larimer county go Obama.

[mileslunn]

I think both are tossups with Obama having a slight edge in Nevada and Colorado being a 50/50 at this point.  It is true Nevada has a large Latino population who will go heavily for Obama, but the state has also been hardhit be foreclosures and has an unemployment rate above the national average, none which are good for the incumbent.  In Colorado it ultimately comes down to the Denver suburbs which tend to be moderate and could go either way.  Jefferson County has a slight Republican tilt so if Romney cannot win there, he can forget winning the state.  Araphoe County is probably the best bellwether for both the state and country, while Adams County has a slight Democrat tilt so Romney can win the state without winning the county much like Bush did in 2004, but he cannot lose it by much.  The rest of the state is pretty much set one way or another.  The Republican strongholds are western slopes (large mormon community), central Colorado (large evangelical community), Eastern Colorado (sparsely population and largely ranchland much like neighboring Kansas and Nebraska), while the Democrat strongholds are Denver and Boulder (liberal cities), southern Colorado (large Latino community), continental divide counties (many ski resorts so tend to be much more liberal than surrounding areas much like Blaine County, Idaho, Teton County, Wyoming, and Summit County, Utah).  Although Colorado has a large latino community and liberal cities like Denver, as a whole the state has a strong libertarian bent and Obama's policies that advocate greater government intervention are not exactly the most popular here.

[PittsburghSean]

I think both are tossups with Obama having a slight edge in Nevada and Colorado being a 50/50 at this point.  It is true Nevada has a large Latino population who will go heavily for Obama, but the state has also been hardhit be foreclosures and has an unemployment rate above the national average, none which are good for the incumbent.  In Colorado it ultimately comes down to the Denver suburbs which tend to be moderate and could go either way.  Jefferson County has a slight Republican tilt so if Romney cannot win there, he can forget winning the state.  Araphoe County is probably the best bellwether for both the state and country, while Adams County has a slight Democrat tilt so Romney can win the state without winning the county much like Bush did in 2004, but he cannot lose it by much.  The rest of the state is pretty much set one way or another.  The Republican strongholds are western slopes (large mormon community), central Colorado (large evangelical community), Eastern Colorado (sparsely population and largely ranchland much like neighboring Kansas and Nebraska), while the Democrat strongholds are Denver and Boulder (liberal cities), southern Colorado (large Latino community), continental divide counties (many ski resorts so tend to be much more liberal than surrounding areas much like Blaine County, Idaho, Teton County, Wyoming, and Summit County, Utah).  Although Colorado has a large latino community and liberal cities like Denver, as a whole the state has a strong libertarian bent and Obama's policies that advocate greater government intervention are not exactly the most popular here.

Don't forget Colorado Springs as an advantage for Romney. Large Air Force base there.

[King]

If Romney has a shot at Nevada, he's already won the election and doesn't need to try.

[Joe Republic]

Romney currently has only 10 campaign offices in Nevada; just 3 of which are in Clark county (which most of you already know has two thirds of the state's population).

Compare that with Obama, who has 21 offices in the state; all but 2 of them are in Clark county.

[mileslunn]

I think both are tossups with Obama having a slight edge in Nevada and Colorado being a 50/50 at this point.  It is true Nevada has a large Latino population who will go heavily for Obama, but the state has also been hardhit be foreclosures and has an unemployment rate above the national average, none which are good for the incumbent.  In Colorado it ultimately comes down to the Denver suburbs which tend to be moderate and could go either way.  Jefferson County has a slight Republican tilt so if Romney cannot win there, he can forget winning the state.  Araphoe County is probably the best bellwether for both the state and country, while Adams County has a slight Democrat tilt so Romney can win the state without winning the county much like Bush did in 2004, but he cannot lose it by much.  The rest of the state is pretty much set one way or another.  The Republican strongholds are western slopes (large mormon community), central Colorado (large evangelical community), Eastern Colorado (sparsely population and largely ranchland much like neighboring Kansas and Nebraska), while the Democrat strongholds are Denver and Boulder (liberal cities), southern Colorado (large Latino community), continental divide counties (many ski resorts so tend to be much more liberal than surrounding areas much like Blaine County, Idaho, Teton County, Wyoming, and Summit County, Utah).  Although Colorado has a large latino community and liberal cities like Denver, as a whole the state has a strong libertarian bent and Obama's policies that advocate greater government intervention are not exactly the most popular here.

Don't forget Colorado Springs as an advantage for Romney. Large Air Force base there.

That would be included in central Colorado, but you are right Colorado Springs is a GOP stronghold.

[mileslunn]

If Romney has a shot at Nevada, he's already won the election and doesn't need to try.

Not totally sure about that.  Nevada has usually been a swing state.  After all since joining the union, it has only twice voted for the losing candidate.  I believe 1976 when Ford won Nevada but lost to Carter was the last time it went for the losing candidate.

[morgieb]

Nevada is leaning Obama atm, Colorado will be a toss-up until election day.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Romney's chances in CO must be good, considering the President is literally stopping there on a very regular basis, including tonight.

[5280]

Romney's chances in CO must be good, considering the President is literally stopping there on a very regular basis, including tonight.

Both candidates stopped here 20 times. Obama is going to be in Fort Collins for a college turnout later today, Sunday will be in Boulder.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Romney's chances in CO must be good, considering the President is literally stopping there on a very regular basis, including tonight.

Both candidates stopped here 20 times. Obama is going to be in Fort Collins for a college turnout later today, Sunday will be in Boulder.

Oh I didn't mean to single out the President......but he won it handily in 2008.....just surprised, that's all.

[opebo]

Romney's chances in CO must be good, considering the President is literally stopping there on a very regular basis, including tonight.

Yes, actually it does seem like the big move upward for Romney has been in Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and to a lesser extent Nevada and Michigan.  There seems to have been much less positive effect in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina.

It seems the alteration in the polls has left us with a lot more truly unpredictable swing states and some of the rationales we were developing - such as that the Hispanic vote was going to nail down Nevada and even Colorado - in doubt.

[User157088589849]

Both going to fall for Obama. Romney had a poor showing in Colorado despite having momentum so expect Obama victory by 51-47.

Nevada could be funny. It could totally collapse for romney if obama wins loads of states early which i think happened last time.

[5280]

Both going to fall for Obama. Romney had a poor showing in Colorado despite having momentum so expect Obama victory by 51-47.

Nevada could be funny. It could totally collapse for romney if obama wins loads of states early which i think happened last time.

I doubt that when the unemployment rate is 8.3%...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CO and NV will put Obama at the 270, Mitt's path is N.H. and Ohio to get to 270.

[Supersonic]

CO and NV will put Obama at the 270, Mitt's path is N.H. and Ohio to get to 270.

It's entirely possible for Romney to win Colorado, he polls better there than New Hampshire.

[後援会]

IIRC, adjusted for likely voters, the average poll has Obama leading Romney 1.4 points in Colorado and 1.6 points nationwide.

In short, we can expect Colorado to generally follow the nationwide popular vote. Bellwether state?

[5280]

IIRC, adjusted for likely voters, the average poll has Obama leading Romney 1.4 points in Colorado and 1.6 points nationwide.

In short, we can expect Colorado to generally follow the nationwide popular vote. Bellwether state?

Probably...

The last time a Democrat president lost and took Colorado was 1908 with William Bryan against Republican William Taft.  There's a slim chance that will happen again.  If Romney wins the presidency, he'll win CO. If Obama is reelected, he takes CO.