Rasmussen in Missouri: Obama 47%, Romney 46%

[MorningInAmerica]

The week of crazy polling continues, with Rasmussen showing Obama's first lead in Missouri since May. I suppose this is Rasmussen's response to PPP's poll showing Romney up by 10 points yesterday.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/missouri/election_2012_missouri_president

Rasmussen's last poll from July 30th has Romney leading 50-44%. So there's been a 7 point swing in the wake of the Akin controversy.

Romney's favorability in the state is 51/47%. Joe Biden's is 44/50%, and Paul Ryan's is 50/40%.
Obama's job approval rating is 48/49%. In July, it was 45/54%.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

WTF?  I doubt it, but at this point I would say that Missouri going to be closer than we thought it would be. 

Why?

I really have no clue.  This state been shifting GOP for a long time and the recent close polls combined with the overall state of the race are completely contradictory. 

[Sbane]

I think it would be a good idea to not look at polls till until one week after the Democratic convention. But unfortunately I needz my fix.

[Torie]

Maybe Akin has coattails. 

[Phony Moderate]

Rasmussen and PPP have switched their roles, it seems.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

LOL

[Talleyrand]

This is completely ridiculous. PPP was showing results like this until the controversy. Now they have a Romney blowout. Rasmussen was showing comfortable Romney leads before the controversy. Now they've got them virtually tied, with Obama up front. Yeah, I want some input from other pollsters.

[User157088589849]

Just reaffirms the opinion that Scott got a call from the RNC to put a pro mccaskill poll out.

[Eraserhead]

lol

So yeah, I wouldn't completely trust anything that PPP or Rasmussen have done in Missouri lately, obviously. I will just note that this poll is a lot closer to other recent polls out of Missouri than the PPP one though.

[Miles]

Entered.

Oh, I almost forgot....

"Excellent news for team Obama."

[Lambsbread]

No way the Akin comment shifted the race 7 points.

[President von Cat]

Yes, this is not believable at all. Definitely a junk poll.. either Rasmussen is trying to look less partisan or something was seriously wrong with their sample. Comfortably lean Romney.

[Eraserhead]

Yes, this is not believable at all. Definitely a junk poll.. either Rasmussen is trying to look less partisan or something was seriously wrong with their sample. Comfortably lean Romney.

I'm not saying that this is a legitimate poll but SUSA and others have basically shown the same thing as Rasmussen here.

[MorningInAmerica]

I will just note that this poll is a lot closer to other recent polls out of Missouri than the PPP one though.

Err, not really:

The last poll to show Obama ahead was PPP in May, and SurveyUSA is the only 1 other than today's Ras to show it a 1 pt race in a while. As you can see, Romney's had strong leads before on Ras, Mason-Dixon, and WeAskAmerica.

[Likely Voter]

let's face it, we have no idea what the F is going on in MO right now and probably wont until after the Dem convention.

[Eraserhead]

I will just note that this poll is a lot closer to other recent polls out of Missouri than the PPP one though.

Err, not really:

The last poll to show Obama ahead was PPP in May, and SurveyUSA is the only 1 other than today's Ras to show it a 1 pt race in a while. As you can see, Romney's had strong leads before on Ras, Mason-Dixon, and WeAskAmerica.

Nope, there is actually another extremely recent poll (the most recent other than this and the PPP poll) showing it as a one point race. There's actually a thread about it on this board.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/102750406/MO-Sen-MO-Gov-Chilenski-Strategies-for-Missouri-Scout-Aug-2012

Unfortunately, RCP has a tendency to pick and choose which polls to include in their averages, rendering them not all that useful.

[MorningInAmerica]

My bad. Pollster includes that poll. I'll reference them for now on since they seem to be more thorough:

[Yank2133]

Scott is trollin.

MO isn't flipping this year.

[Ljube]

Republican voters will rather stay home than vote for Akin which hurts Romney in this poll.

This is only a temporary reaction to Akin's recent statements. Missouri is safe Romney.

[5280]

MO was a steady eddie state for Romney, now the polarized people decided to enter in the polls or somebody was trolling.

[pbrower2a]

Maybe Akin has coattails. 

...and he is dragging Republicans into quicksand.

There were two polls by newbie pollsters a couple weeks ago that had Romney up 2. PPP had Romney up 10 early this week (probably before the Akin blunder) -- and Rasmussen has Obama up 1. PPP is rarely an outlier.

Things can change quickly, and if Mitt Romney mishandles the absurd and cruel statement of a Senate nominee, that could make earlier polls suspect. I'm going to figure that the PPP poll became obsolete -- fast. I'm averaging this poll with the two recent non-PPP polls, not my favorite way of doing things, but so it goes.   

 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maybe Akin has coattails. 

...and he is dragging Republicans into quicksand.

There were two polls by newbie pollsters a couple weeks ago that had Romney up 2. PPP had Romney up 10 early this week (probably before the Akin blunder) -- and Rasmussen has Obama up 1. PPP is rarely an outlier.

Things can change quickly, and if Mitt Romney mishandles the absurd and cruel statement of a Senate nominee, that could make earlier polls suspect. I'm going to figure that the PPP poll became obsolete -- fast. I'm averaging this poll with the two recent non-PPP polls, not my favorite way of doing things, but so it goes.   

 

The PPP poll was the first poll conducted after the Akin controversy started.

[PittsburghSean]

I actually trust Rasmussen's polling in both the Senate and Presidential contests. That said, I think the presidential race is a temporary blip that resulted because of all this negative attention because of the moronic boneheaded statement made by Akin. Akin is staying in the race for now. While I think Romney will flip the Missouri numbers around, Akin's toast if he keeps continuing down this road.

[morgieb]

My gut feel - PPP and Rassy are faking their polls so they can protect McCaskill/kick out Akin.