PPP in Wisconsin: Romney - 48%, Obama - 47%

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

And suddenly the blue avatars are singing praises of PPP...

[TheGlobalizer]

And suddenly the blue avatars are singing praises of PPP...

FWIW, that this is PPP leads me to believe the news is even worse for Obama.  No Rasmussen effect to appeal to, WI is a solid tossup.

[Vosem]

Sample is R+2.

That tells us all we need to know about this poll.

That tilts Republican but it isn't unrealistic -- in 2004 the sample was R+3. In 2010, it was D+1, but since then you've had a popular Republican Governor (Scott Walker), which could mean 2012 will be a better year, in Wisconsin only, for the GOP. All speculation of course.

[Brittain33]

Let me sketch this out for you:

You were talking about the poll electorate.
krazen shifted to the recall electorate.
I said that the closest comparable thing to the recall electorate was 2004, 8 years in the past.

You respond with 2010, which was both a highly Republican election and was D+1, which no, is not that close to R+2, particularly when it was such a teabaggy election.

Morning in America has to go back 8 years to find a comparable electorate. That says all we need to know. There are tons of voters who only vote in presidential elections.

Hey, Brittain33, how about reading the thread you're posting in.

Republican friendly compared to what? The record-breaking Democratic year of '08? Then sure it's a little R friendly. But not compared to other statewide elections in Wisconsin.
In 2004, the sample was R+3. In 2010, it was D+1. In the 2012 recall election, it was R+1. Honestly, the D+6 turnout of '08 is what looks like the outlier here, not the R+2 from their sample.

So as you can see, Brittain, I don't have to go back 8 years to find a comparable sample. If you deem 2004's R+3 turnout comparable to PPPs R+2 sample, then what about the R+1 turnout in the recall isn't a "comparable electorate" to PPPs sample? Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't that just two months ago? What about the D+1 turnout in 2010 isn't comparable? Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't that just 2 years ago?

[pbrower2a]

PPP says this represents a 7 point shift since mid-July.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/romney-slightly-ahead-in-wisconsin.html\

Obama's job approval rating is 46/50%
Romney's favorable rating is 45/48%
Joe Biden favorable rating is 41/48%
Paul Ryan favorable rating is 49/45%

Sample is R+2.

The Obama approval rating is one point higher than the Romney favorable rating, and the sample is R+2 in a state that is at least even.

Paul Ryan may have an effect for now - an unusually-high one for a VP nominee. Wisconsin voters will soon get to know him as they never knew him before, which might not be such a great thing for Romney. Joe Biden isn't popular in Wisconsin.

Accepted with the caveat that PPP may be bending over backwards to let Republicans think that they have a chance in Wisconsin.

[krazen1211]

PPP says this represents a 7 point shift since mid-July.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/romney-slightly-ahead-in-wisconsin.html\

Obama's job approval rating is 46/50%
Romney's favorable rating is 45/48%
Joe Biden favorable rating is 41/48%
Paul Ryan favorable rating is 49/45%

Sample is R+2.

The Obama approval rating is one point higher than the Romney favorable rating, and the sample is R+2 in a state that is at least even.

Says who?

[Chaddyr23]

I can see this being a real cincern. I mean Walker got more votes in his recall than McCain did in 08 running for President. Also who saw Feingold losing by 5?! WI is def a tossup