PPP in Wisconsin: Romney - 48%, Obama - 47%

[MorningInAmerica]

PPP says this represents a 7 point shift since mid-July.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/romney-slightly-ahead-in-wisconsin.html\

Obama's job approval rating is 46/50%
Romney's favorable rating is 45/48%
Joe Biden favorable rating is 41/48%
Paul Ryan favorable rating is 49/45%

Sample is R+2.

[Miles]

PPP noted on Twitter that the sample was Republican-friendly, which does seem to be the case: 34R 34I 32D.

[DrScholl]

32 D, 34R, 34I sample. Obama leads by 4 with Independents.

[krazen1211]

Paul Ryan will be required to blaze a path of victory.

Path is being blazed!

[MorningInAmerica]

PPP noted on Twitter that the sample was Republican-friendly, which does seem to be the case: 34R 34I 32D.

Republican friendly compared to what? The record-breaking Democratic year of '08? Then sure it's a little R friendly. But not compared to other statewide elections in Wisconsin.
In 2004, the sample was R+3. In 2010, it was D+1. In the 2012 recall election, it was R+1. Honestly, the D+6 turnout of '08 is what looks like the outlier here, not the R+2 from their sample.

[tmthforu94]

Database Entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5520120819108

[krazen1211]

PPP noted on Twitter that the sample was Republican-friendly, which does seem to be the case: 34R 34I 32D.

Republican friendly compared to what? The record-breaking Democratic year of '08? Then sure it's a little R friendly. But not compared to other statewide elections in Wisconsin.
In 2004, the sample was R+3. In 2010, it was D+1. In the 2012 recall election, it was R+1. Honestly, the D+6 turnout of '08 is what looks like the outlier here, not the R+2 from their sample.

R+1 is what PPP had when they grossly underestimated Scott Walker.

[Likely Voter]

Putting WI into play is pretty key for Team Romney. If he loses OH he would otherwise have had to win every other swing state. Throwing WI into the mix gives him some wiggle room

[Wiz in Wis]

I'm not surprised... Wisconsin has been trending GOP for a while... due largely to an exceedingly incompetent state Democratic Party... Mike Tate should have been fired long, long ago.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Sample is R+2.

That tells us all we need to know about this poll.

[Person Man]

I think if Obama can't even carry Wisconsin, that a lot of people will need to be fired.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obama is probably narrowly ahead, given the sample. However, we definitely have to do better in the state than we are.

[Sbane]

If there is an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans, Wisconsin seems to be the epicenter of it. I still think if the election was actually happening today, Obama would win the state by a point or two...but considering he would win the country by about 2-3 right now, Wisconsin might have become a R leaning state for this cycle...

[Brittain33]

Yes, in fact, a presidential sample more Republican than the recall electorate is an odd result.

[MorningInAmerica]

Yes, in fact, a presidential sample more Republican than the recall electorate is an odd result.

It wasn't that odd in 2004 when it was R+3. That would mean the presidential sample was more Republican that year than the 2012 recall electorate.

[Likely Voter]

Neither campaign is currently spending much in WI yet. Will be interesting to see what happens next week with ad spending. If WI is going to be a battleground they should be battling there.

[pepper11]

Neither campaign is currently spending much in WI yet. Will be interesting to see what happens next week with ad spending. If WI is going to be a battleground they should be battling there.

Neither campaign has spent anything. Though superpacs have put over 3 mil into the race for Romney.

[opebo]

I have to say, as pessimistic as I am, a very small lead at the height of the Ryan bump is not an absolute deal closer here..  

[krazen1211]

Yes, in fact, a presidential sample more Republican than the recall electorate is an odd result.

It wasn't that odd in 2004 when it was R+3. That would mean the presidential sample was more Republican that year than the 2012 recall electorate.

Dane County put up extremely high turnout in the 2012 recall (Madison was even higher), and Milwaukee County was right at the state average. To pretend that there is some hidden reservoir of votes is to ignore facts. With the exception of Menominee the lowest turnout counties were Walker Counties.

[cavalcade]

Some of the Ryan factor is probably a temporary bounce, but he has made Wisconsin a pure tossup.  That's big as by my math Romney needs either Virginia or Wisconsin given current state polling.  Two bites at the apple instead of one and all that.

[RogueBeaver]

PPP predicted this back in June, but the numbers then were 47/46 D. I'll wait for MLS before jumping for joy.

[Brittain33]

Yes, in fact, a presidential sample more Republican than the recall electorate is an odd result.

It wasn't that odd in 2004 when it was R+3. That would mean the presidential sample was more Republican that year than the 2012 recall electorate.

Dane County put up extremely high turnout in the 2012 recall (Madison was even higher), and Milwaukee County was right at the state average. To pretend that there is some hidden reservoir of votes is to ignore facts. With the exception of Menominee the lowest turnout counties were Walker Counties.

Morning in America has to go back 8 years to find a comparable electorate. That says all we need to know. There are tons of voters who only vote in presidential elections.

I'm not in a place to run the number, so help me out. How much higher was this "extremely high" turnout in Dane County in the recall vs. the presidential election in 2008? How many tens of thousands of votes over the presidential election in 2004?

[krazen1211]

Yes, in fact, a presidential sample more Republican than the recall electorate is an odd result.

It wasn't that odd in 2004 when it was R+3. That would mean the presidential sample was more Republican that year than the 2012 recall electorate.

Dane County put up extremely high turnout in the 2012 recall (Madison was even higher), and Milwaukee County was right at the state average. To pretend that there is some hidden reservoir of votes is to ignore facts. With the exception of Menominee the lowest turnout counties were Walker Counties.

Morning in America has to go back 8 years to find a comparable electorate. That says all we need to know. There are tons of voters who only vote in presidential elections.

I'm not in a place to run the number, so help me out. How much higher was this "extremely high" turnout in Dane County in the recall vs. the presidential election in 2008? How many tens of thousands of votes over the presidential election in 2004?

I use the voter registration statistics posted here.

http://gab.wi.gov/publications/statistics


Dane County, 2012: 253k votes cast
Dane County, 2012: 345k registered voters
Dane County, 2012: 73% turnout

Within Madison City, jsonline indicates that turnout was 5-6% higher than Dane County at large. I don't know the exact figures.

Milwaukee County, 2012: 394k votes cast
Milwaukee County, 2012: 549k registered voters
Milwaukee County, 2012: 72% turnout

Wisconsin, 2012: 2511k votes cast
Wisconsin, 2012: 3453k registered voters
Wisconsin, 2012: 73% turnout


Waukesha put up comparable figures to Madison city at 79% turnout.

I would love to find registered voter counties from 2008 to see comparable figures. The problem was that the GOP base was not energized in 2008 and McCain performed extremely poorly in Waukesha and neighboring counties. How do you think they will perform with a local hero on the ticket?

[MorningInAmerica]

Morning in America has to go back 8 years to find a comparable electorate. That says all we need to know. There are tons of voters who only vote in presidential elections.

Hey, Brittain33, how about reading the thread you're posting in.

Republican friendly compared to what? The record-breaking Democratic year of '08? Then sure it's a little R friendly. But not compared to other statewide elections in Wisconsin.
In 2004, the sample was R+3. In 2010, it was D+1. In the 2012 recall election, it was R+1. Honestly, the D+6 turnout of '08 is what looks like the outlier here, not the R+2 from their sample.

So as you can see, Brittain, I don't have to go back 8 years to find a comparable sample. If you deem 2004's R+3 turnout comparable to PPPs R+2 sample, then what about the R+1 turnout in the recall isn't a "comparable electorate" to PPPs sample? Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't that just two months ago? What about the D+1 turnout in 2010 isn't comparable? Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't that just 2 years ago?

[krazen1211]

Morning in America has to go back 8 years to find a comparable electorate. That says all we need to know. There are tons of voters who only vote in presidential elections.

Hey, Brittain33, how about reading the thread you're posting in.

Republican friendly compared to what? The record-breaking Democratic year of '08? Then sure it's a little R friendly. But not compared to other statewide elections in Wisconsin.
In 2004, the sample was R+3. In 2010, it was D+1. In the 2012 recall election, it was R+1. Honestly, the D+6 turnout of '08 is what looks like the outlier here, not the R+2 from their sample.

So as you can see, Brittain, I don't have to go back 8 years to find a comparable sample. If you deem 2004's R+3 turnout comparable to PPPs R+2 sample, then what about the R+1 turnout in the recall isn't comparable? Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't that just two months ago? What about the D+1 turnout in 2010 isn't comparable? Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't that just 2 years ago?

is it that difficult for you to read a thread before saying something that is clearly not true. What about an R+1 electorate in the recall in 2012 and a D+1 electorate in 2010 is NOT COMPARABLE to PPPs R+2 sample here? And then you have the R+3 to boot. Seriously, read first.

Given how lousy those recall exit polls were I would presume to say that the recall was even more republican tilted than that.