(pre-Ryan)Wapo/Kaiser: Obama +7

[Likely Voter]

Saturday WaPo released very detailed poll with Kaiser looking at subgroups within Dems and Republicans. Lots of interesting data on various issues, but it was conducted July 25-Aug. 5 with  3,130 adults

Top line horse race results:
RV
Obama: 50
Romney: 43

All adults
Obama: 52
Romney: 40

Article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/big-gulf-between-parties-divisions-within/2012/08/18/f5ee15d4-e31a-11e1-ae7f-d2a13e249eb2_story.html

Infographic (breaking down party subgroups): http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-washington-post---kaiser-family-foundation-poll/2012/08/18/17567726-e98c-11e1-8487-64e4b2a79ba8_graphic.html

Details: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postkaiserpoll_20120805.html

[pbrower2a]

It looks like a good poll with a noteworthy partitioning of the Parties; it is simply obsolete.

Telling is the gap between RV and "all adults". If you are the Obama campaign you want to expand the electorate. If you are a Republican of any kind you want the electorate to shrink.

[Likely Voter]

I agree that it is out of date, although the results are in line with other polls from earlier this month. I posted it mostly for the interesting sub group data and the issues data.

for the long term, the 'window shopper' young rebublicans are an issue for the party. Do they soften their stance on social issues to accommodate the next generation? At some point they will have to.

[pbrower2a]

I agree that it is out of date, although the results are in line with other polls from earlier this month. I posted it mostly for the interesting sub group data and the issues data.

for the long term, the 'window shopper' young Republicans are an issue for the party. Do they soften their stance on social issues to accommodate the next generation? At some point they will have to.

The most telling subsets are the ones not so solid in their support. Such could be constituencies in transition, people once reliable voters for the party in question but no longer so... or voters making a switch in allegiance. These may be the voters that pols wish to poach from the Other Side.

So here are the segments (numbers show the Obama-Romney split):

Democratic-leaning:

God and Government Dems  91- 5
Urban Liberals                      96- 3
Agnostic Left                         94- 3
Do-it-Yourself Dems              71-21

Republican-leaning 

Tea Party Movement             98- 1
Old School Reps                    92- 6
Religious Values Reps           92- 6
Window Shoppers                58-36
Pro-Government Reps           83- 9   


If you are a Democrat and as you canvass someone starts talking sympathetically about the Tea Party movement, then you are likely wasting your time if you keep talking. Likewise if you are a Republican and you run into an Urban Liberal, you might want to disengage quickly. 

A party that has a constituency that splits by 85% in its favor can feel secure about that group.  If it is unusually old, then such might be a concern in later elections (think of New Deal Democrats influential as late as the late 1990s) but not this time.

The three weakest cores are, in increasing shakiness, are:

3. Pro-Government Republicans. These look like the sorts who might have voted for Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1992 and 1996 but have since largely drifted to the GOP. They trust government as a solution on economic issues but have conservative views on religion and sex. because of their low income I suspect that they are heavily concentrated in the South. maybe their affiliation with the GOP is weak, but I see them voting against the GOP only if they see the Republican nominee offering a "You lose!" proposition. If you are a Democrat, do not discuss abortion or gay rights with these people -- but do discuss economics. There are some undecided voters in this category, but at 8%, don't go fishing.

2. Do-it-Yourself Democrats. They are more conservative on social issues than other Democrats but more liberal on these than any Republican-leaning group except for the Window Shoppers. If you are a Democrat, do not discuss abortion or gay rights with these people. There are some undecided voters in this group, but at 8%, don't go fishing.

1. Window Shoppers. For what should be a core constituency of the GOP, this one is shaky. Republicans will probably win it, but not strongly enough (according to this poll) to win. Their personal values are inconsistent with the GOP. If you are a Democrat, do not discuss abortion or gay rights with these people. There are plenty of undecided voters in this group, but at 16%, at least one in six are worth talking to.

If what should be a core consistency is going 58-36 in your favor instead of 80-20, then you may have trouble at the voting booth if your electoral success depends upon that group. If Democrats suddenly found Jews or union households going 58-36 instead of 90-6 then something would be going wrong with that constituency. I can't figure why these people are Republicans as a group. Maybe it is affiliation (family owns a small business, pressure from relatives in the Tea Party Movement, desire to impress the Boss at work with loyalty to conservative causes)... to which I would say "Psssssst -- nobody needs to know how you vote."


 

[Umengus]

biased sample like you can imagine...

[Likely Voter]

biased sample like you can imagine...

is that a joke or do you have data to point at that shows a bias?

[Umengus]

biased sample like you can imagine...

is that a joke or do you have data to point at that shows a bias?

5/6. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as: (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what?
                                                             
          Democrat   Republican   Independent   Other/None   No opinion 
8/5/12       34          25            34          4              3     
6/3/07       36          27            29          4              3     
8/18/98      30          27            30         12              1     

[Likely Voter]

Those are the numbers for all adults and they only show a Dem+9 sample. That is the group that has Obama+12 vs Romney. The RV sample (based on registration % question) are
Dem: 34%, GOP 27%, Ind 33%, or a Dem +7.

Again, where is the bias? 

[Umengus]

Those are the numbers for all adults and they only show a Dem+9 sample. That is the group that has Obama+12 vs Romney. The RV sample (based on registration % question) are
Dem: 34%, GOP 27%, Ind 33%, or a Dem +7.

Again, where is the bias? 

D+7 is biased... considering that 2012 will be very different than 2008...

[Niemeyerite]

Those are the numbers for all adults and they only show a Dem+9 sample. That is the group that has Obama+12 vs Romney. The RV sample (based on registration % question) are
Dem: 34%, GOP 27%, Ind 33%, or a Dem +7.

Again, where is the bias? 

D+7 is biased... considering that 2012 will be very different than 2008...

D+7 isn't that biased. And the poll isn't either. Do you ever pay attention to the poll 'per se', and not only the partisan sample?

[Umengus]

Those are the numbers for all adults and they only show a Dem+9 sample. That is the group that has Obama+12 vs Romney. The RV sample (based on registration % question) are
Dem: 34%, GOP 27%, Ind 33%, or a Dem +7.

Again, where is the bias? 

D+7 is biased... considering that 2012 will be very different than 2008...

D+7 isn't that biased. And the poll isn't either. Do you ever pay attention to the poll 'per se', and not only the partisan sample?

if the sample is biased, all is biased... I guess a tied, D+1 or +2 on the election day. So D+7...

[Phony Moderate]

Those are the numbers for all adults and they only show a Dem+9 sample. That is the group that has Obama+12 vs Romney. The RV sample (based on registration % question) are
Dem: 34%, GOP 27%, Ind 33%, or a Dem +7.

Again, where is the bias? 

D+7 is biased... considering that 2012 will be very different than 2008...

D+7 isn't that biased. And the poll isn't either. Do you ever pay attention to the poll 'per se', and not only the partisan sample?

if the sample is biased, all is biased... I guess a tied, D+1 or +2 on the election day. So D+7...

Obama has a Muslim connection.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

RCP has of course ignored this poll, choosing instead to keep posting Rasmussen's spam polls.

[Likely Voter]

This poll has a much larger sample size than most polls. It isn't an LV poll so I dont see how they can be biased unless there is evidence they weighted it somehow but I dont see that.


As i noted the most interesting data from this poll was the all adults issue info and the subgroups. It is reasonable to think that 2012 could be a mix between 2008 and 2010 or around D+3 to D+4. So D+7 for RV is not unusual and shouldnt just knee-jerk be ignored (being that RV tend to have more Ds).

[old timey villain]

I hate polls like this that try to pigeonhole every single voter into made up subgroups.

[Umengus]

Those are the numbers for all adults and they only show a Dem+9 sample. That is the group that has Obama+12 vs Romney. The RV sample (based on registration % question) are
Dem: 34%, GOP 27%, Ind 33%, or a Dem +7.

Again, where is the bias? 

D+7 is biased... considering that 2012 will be very different than 2008...

D+7 isn't that biased. And the poll isn't either. Do you ever pay attention to the poll 'per se', and not only the partisan sample?

if the sample is biased, all is biased... I guess a tied, D+1 or +2 on the election day. So D+7...

Obama has a Muslim connection.

"muslim connection" is not bad per se... it's just a very good link with muslim leader and voters...