NY-27: Collins leads Hochul by 13 in internal

[krazen1211]

http://www.buffalonews.com/city/capital-connection/washington/article1004944.ece

The poll of 400 voters shows Collins with a 47 percent to 34 percent lead over Rep. Kathleen C. Hochul, D-Hamburg, in the strongly Republican district.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Unsurprising, but it is an internal.

I'm not seeing Hochul holding on here. Isn't this the single most Republican district in New York at this point?

[minionofmidas]

Unsurprising, but it is an internal.

I'm not seeing Hochul holding on here. Isn't this the single most Republican district in New York at this point?

It is. Not sure if that wasn't also the case when she won it, though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

NY-29 was most Republican in 2004 but several areas collapsed in GOP performance 2008, which is why it tossed out its Republican congressmen that year. That makes NY-26 the winner I guess.

2002 Lines The Four McCain seats in NY: 

NY-03 R+4
2004 President Bush 52–47%
2008 President McCain 52–47%

NY-13 R+4
2004 President Bush 55 - 45%
2008 President McCain 51 - 49%

NY-26 R+6
2004 President Bush 55 - 43%
2008 President McCain 52 - 46%

NY-29 R+5
2004 President Bush 56 - 42%
2008 President McCain 51 - 48%

[Miles]

Well, this was taken before Romney picked Ryan.

Its not like Hochul ran on opposition to the Ryan budget and won or anything.

Siena will have a poll from here out over the weekend.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Well, this was taken before Romney picked Ryan.

Its not like Hochul ran on opposition to the Ryan budget and won or anything.

Siena will have a poll from here out over the weekend.

Only because the GOP candidate expected to win and wasn't prepared to respond to any of those attacks. Hardly the first time the GOP lost a special election in NY because their candidate was a dud. Don't forget that Jack Kemp won this same area, with much the same philosophy and this district is far more Republican now then it was in 1970-1988, when it was primarily just in Erie county.

Siena will provide a much more accuate measure to be sure then this internal, so we will have to wait and see.

[Talleyrand]

Well, this was taken before Romney picked Ryan.

Its not like Hochul ran on opposition to the Ryan budget and won or anything.

Siena will have a poll from here out over the weekend.

I'm going to wait until Siena's poll to make conclusions about this election then. I highly doubt Collins is already up thirteen, but Hochul is almost certainly down. In a R+8 district against a self-funder worth in the hundreds of millions, her personal popularity and campaigning skills can help her so much (I know Corwin also met that description, but the district is more red now and the environment's not as favorable).

I don't think Corwin was a dud. On paper and in practice, she isn't much different than Collins; a multimillionaire technocratic Establishment Republican. And how exactly is Collins more able to handle these attacks?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't think Corwin was a dud. On paper and in practice, she isn't much different than Collins; a multimillionaire technocratic Establishment Republican. And how exactly is Collins more able to handle these attacks?

Sounds like many of the other candidates the GOP has run in these special elections in New York, only to lose most of them. On paper indeed, but I would challenge the in practice part based on the fact that she, you know, lost. You think duds are only produced by Tea Party primary challenges? Lol, the NY Establishment has a long record of incompetence. They are the ones that screwed up NY-01 in the primary and distracted Altschuler enough to likely cost him those last few hundred votes and the seat in the general. That wasn't the only case where they thouht they were "helping" by inserting an establishment guy in the race (in that case a relative of the party chairman). An establishment candidate blew a sure victory in NY-20. In NY-23, you had another sure victory fall to pieces because the establishment candidate just began to implode because of her own mistakes and misteps, way before Hoffman began to gain ground. 

He may not be, but one thing is for sure, he knows he has find some way to deal with these issues either by distancing himself from them or successfully redefining them. Either would be different from what Corwin did.

[Talleyrand]

He may know that, but it doesn't mean he will. Corwin certainly was aware of that as well. And you know, well, Collins lost too- and he was a well-known incumbent. He went from winning 64-36 in 2007 to losing in 2011, a more Republican years. Does that make him a dud in your opinion?

I bet if Corwin chose a rematch this year, she would have led by a similar, although slightly smaller margin.

And BTW, I agree about Cox, Tedisco, and Scozofavva being duds, but there was no reason for suggesting I think "think duds are only produced by Tea Party primary challenges". I don't recall making any suggestion of that sort.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You spelled two of their names wrong.

I think we are going in circles, here. My point isn't that Collins is a good candidate, I hardly know anything about him. It is clear to me based on the result that Corwin wasn't up to the task in that special election based on the results we saw last year. In my experience also, it is never a good idea to run a special election loser in the next general election as they almost always lose a second time. That is what happened in MS-01 and ILL-14, for example.
Collins does have a chance to win this and do things differently from what Corwin did in the special. He also has a better opportunity then a Corwin retread, based on past results from other specials.

[Talleyrand]

Just Scozzafava. Lol.

Basically, I think you are just putting too much blame on Corwin for the loss, though I do think Collins is a somewhat stronger candidate. He probably does have a better opportunity, but not by much.

I think two things make your comparison to previous specials inaccurate.

1. Both those special elections were held in 2007-2008, and followed by a general in 2008. These were very bad times for Democrats and I don't think if the GOP had switched candidates for the general, much would have changed. In 2010, after losing by 7 points in the PA-12 special, Tim Burns was able to tighten the margin to just 2 points in the general due to the environment. Since this year is a bit more similar to 2010 to 2008, and factoring in the next point, Corwin would probably start off neutralizing Hochul's lead to nothing.

2. Neither of those districts had been redistricted. Hochul's district is now significantly more conservative and features a fair amount of new territory. Corwin would be more likely to get a "do-over" in this district, rather than be a retread.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There is another that is incorrect as well, as I was corrected myself two years ago, when I spelled it just has you have here.

I think you are are overemphasing the changes to the seat. It didn't shift all that much you know, as it was already R+6 before. Also, it is substanially the same territory, the non Buffalo parts of Erie, Wyoming, Genesse, Suburban Monroe, Livingston etc. The same media markets, the same voters for the most part. You don't get a "do-over" because of redistricting when the district is maybe 80%-85% same. Maybe 2 points or so.

Blame? Lol. It was her candidacy and her campaign. She ran it the way she thought best in a seat that has been in Republicans hands since Jack Kemp won it as a much more compact and more Democratic seat in 1970, that has been the best performing GOP seat in the state for the last decade, which had seen almost every other seat falter in bad times (Yeah Reynolds sucked in 2006, but that wasn't just his own campaign that was so. To think he coveted the Speakership at one point). I don't blame her for the loss, I credit her campaign with the results she achieved.