Can Romney win without OH? Maps?

[stegosaurus]

269-269 tie. Assuming the GOP keeps the House, this is a Romney win.

Romney could also win Wisconsin (win outright) in this scenario, theoretically.  That said, I doubt Romney wins WI without also winning OH.

I seriously doubt he wins Nevada while losing Ohio.

Anyway, he's likely toast without Ohio.

Nevada is a much better electorate for Romney than Ohio and I think Romney closes the gap by the election. This is a feat I can't see him replicating in a place like Ohio.

Furthermore, Obama is up by ~5 points in Nevada vs ~3 points in Ohio (per RCP averages). So it's not like it's a blowout in one state or the other, both are up for contention.

[AmericanNation]

Yes he can win without OH.  He than needs VA to have any good odds. 
R's might out preform in Wisconsin by 3 to 4 points for similar reasons to why they're under preforming in Ohio.  With Paul Ryan on the ticket Romney probably wins both anyway.   

[Donerail]

Without Ohio, Romney loses, and this is assuming that almost every swing state goes for him. I don't really see Romney winning Nevada without a major wave (given current polling has the POTUS +5). The max Romney can get without Ohio and Pennsylvania is an even 300 anyway.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Seriously, no.

Romney already have a horrific electoral vote deficit and Ohio is one of states he must win to have any hope of reaching 270.

[MD]

I honestly see no path for Romney without Ohio.  I do think the country is polarized.   Today, I see this as a 2004 type of election except that Obama holds on to NV, CO and NM while he gains OH and NH.    I do see IN, NC and FL flipping.

I know people are trying to build a road that leads to a Romney victory without Ohio but I just cannot see that.

[5280]

I could see Romney winning all the swing states Obama won in 2008 except Ohio and lose. He'll have to win Wisconsin and Michigan to cover his loss in Ohio to win.

[tmthforu94]

Romney/Ryan - 273 Electoral Votes
Obama/Biden - 265 Electoral Votes

I actually think this could be possible.

[AmericanNation]

Romney/Ryan - 273 Electoral Votes
Obama/Biden - 265 Electoral Votes

I actually think this could be possible.

I was looking at the same thing.  New Hampshire and the MaineCD without CO is a hail marry, but quite possible as I think Ryan will compliment Romney well in New Hampshire.  He might help in CO (where he is vacationing right now)  and he definitely helps in Wisconsin and Iowa.  The Romney camp thinks they can win Nevada, so that would be another safety valve.    

[Phony Moderate]

If he chooses Paul Ryan and he has enough home state appeal, then this is a possibility:

[Oldiesfreak1854]

OH is considered a bellweather state. Last person to win without OH was JFK in 1960. No Republican has ever won without Ohio. But this year polling shows that OH is trending more Dem. The current RCP avg for OH is Obama +4.8, or about +1.3 ahead of the national numbers. This makes OH more Dem than most of the other swing states and indicates that if the race were a tie, OH would be on the Dem side.

Is this just a summer aberration and OH will swing back to its traditional position of leaning GOP?

If not, assuming PA and OH go for Obama, is there a credible path for Romney to win? Any maps?

Ohio is the ultimate swing state and probably the most evenly divided.  I think the Obama lead is temporary, especially because not many people will be tuned into the campaign until after Labor Day.  I think it's temporary, and as the race heats up, Ohio will get closer.  Of course, there's a chance that won't happen, but I think Obama would win today anyway, both in Ohio and nationally.  But it's still early enough for things to change.  If President Obama does carry Ohio and Pennsylvania, then it becomes absolutely crucial for Romney to carry Florida.  Here are some ways Romney could do it without OH or PA:

Romney- 273
Obama- 265

Romney- 298
Obama- 240
Basically, any combination of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Virginia will get him there without Ohio or Pennsylvania.  Of course, all those states are in play, and Minnesota, Maine, Washington, and Oregon could be as well. 

[AmericanNation]

The plan is to create this situation where Romney only needs 2 of the 5 "big" states.   

[Likely Voter]

I see a lot of reliance on WI to help Romney but neither the Romney campaign, nor Rove or the other GOP superpacs are spending any money in WI. The lists of states where they are spending money is: MI, PA, OH, CO, IA, FL, VA, NV, NC, NH

It is pretty simple. In the case where Obama wins MI, PA and OH, Romney has to win the rest of the swing states where he is competing (FL, VA, CO, NV, NC, NH, IA). In any scenario where Romney has a +1.0 in the PV he should be able to pull that off. That gives him 273, although it has also been noted he doesn't need NH as 269 will also get him a win in the House.

The question is, what happens if the race is Romney +0.1 or +0.5...where are OH and NV in that scenario?

[AmericanNation]

I see a lot of reliance on WI to help Romney but neither the Romney campaign, nor Rove or the other GOP superpacs are spending any money in WI. The lists of states where they are spending money is: MI, PA, OH, CO, IA, FL, VA, NV, NC, NH

It is pretty simple. In the case where Obama wins MI, PA and OH, Romney has to win the rest of the swing states where he is competing (FL, VA, CO, NV, NC, NH, IA). In any scenario where Romney has a +1.0 in the PV he should be able to pull that off. That gives him 273, although it has also been noted he doesn't need NH as 269 will also get him a win in the House.

The question is, what happens if the race is Romney +0.1 or +0.5...where are OH and NV in that scenario?

right,
although their has been some minor superpac spending in SE Wisconsin (as far as I know, maybe elsewhere as well)(so minor I don't remember which one), no spending will do much good until the contentious US Senate primary is over with next Tuesday.  The focus and political "air" gets used up.  I expect after the primary and especially with a Ryan, probably a Pawlenty, and maybe with a Portman Veep announcement their will be spending in the state.     

[sentinel]

Basically President Obama has far more ways to win, and no single state so far makes the difference. But Mitt Romney has the opposite situation in which he must win a raft of states without losing one.

The situation is much as it was for John McCain, except that Nevada gets polled more often (and is surprisingly steady). That just about offsets the shift of electoral votes away from the Blue Firewall of 2008.

Mitt must win every one of these:

Colorado
Ohio
Virginia
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri

Obama won every one of these in 2008.

These are states different enough that there is no way to have any one campaign pitch that wins them all without reshaping the general race. Any one of them can move independently of each other. (If Indiana, Arizona, or Georgia were in play, then one could be sure that in each respective case Ohio, Colorado, and both North Carolina and Florida have gone for President Obama.

Wisconsin? Iowa? The Governor would have to cheat or induce cheating.

 

No he didn't.

But it looks very hard for Romney to win without Ohio.

Morgied gotcha there, Missouri went for McCain. Pbrower's point is still valid.