Romney-Ryan Ticket. What does it Do?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

How does having Paul Ryan as a veep pick help or hinder Romney in the following states?
Wisconsin
Ohio
Iowa
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Colorado
Nevada
Arizona
And how does he stack up against Biden?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Wisconsin - slight help
Iowa - no effect
Pennsylvania - slight hurt
New Hampshire - slight hurt
Virginia - no effect
North Carolina - no effect
Florida - big hurt, and the reason Romney won't do it
Colorado - no effect
Nevada - no effect
Arizona - big hurt, enough to put the state into play

[opebo]

Wisconsin - slight help
Iowa - no effect
Pennsylvania - slight hurt
New Hampshire - slight hurt
Virginia - no effect
North Carolina - no effect
Florida - big hurt, and the reason Romney won't do it
Colorado - no effect
Nevada - no effect
Arizona - big hurt, enough to put the state into play

You forgot about Ohio, where it hurts, and Ohio is the key.

Oh I see the original poster forgot about Ohio.. why?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Wisconsin - slight help
Iowa - no effect
Pennsylvania - slight hurt
New Hampshire - slight hurt
Virginia - no effect
North Carolina - no effect
Florida - big hurt, and the reason Romney won't do it
Colorado - no effect
Nevada - no effect
Arizona - big hurt, enough to put the state into play

You forgot about Ohio, where it hurts, and Ohio is the key.

Oh I see the original poster forgot about Ohio.. why?

I was typing from a phone and it sliped my mind,  I have no idea how I put Arizona but forgot Ohio.

[Vosem]

He will help in Wisconsin. Otherwise, it's too early to tell, as most people haven't heard of him, though I think he would make a good first impression on conservatives: young, eloquent, and with clear public policy initiatives. There would probably be an initial bump. Obama would go hard negative on those policy initiatives, with Republicans defending them -- and the outcome of that is highly uncertain. Ryan is himself from the Upper Midwest, so he may actually also help in states like Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio by painting himself as 'one of us'. Alternatively, if Democrats manage to paint his budget proposals negatively (possible), the opposite may well occur.

Lots of people forget that few people have heard of Paul Ryan or his budget, and most of those that have have forgotten the specifics. If the Right can quickly define Ryan, which should be doable, he could well be a positive.

I think in the context of a battle for turnout and status-as-lesser-evil that fall 2012 is going to be Ryan would help Romney significantly, but it would be a big gamble and totally redefine the race, something Romney has been unwilling to do.

[RogueBeaver]

PPP says Ryan boosts Romney into a tie (47-46) in WI. Other than that, little if any polling change.

Biden: Like Nathan said in the VP thread, they can go toe-to-toe.

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan actually has pretty good favorables across the board according to a recent CNN poll. Those who know him mostly like him (even seniors), but he's largely an unknown nationwide.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/07/05/rel6f.pdf

[Stranger in a strange land]

Lots of people forget that few people have heard of Paul Ryan or his budget, and most of those that have have forgotten the specifics. If the Right can quickly define Ryan, which should be doable, he could well be a positive.

Obama would remind them, and no amount of right wing spin could cover the fact that Ryan's budget calls for slashing social security and medicare. Fox News is good at what they do, but they're not that good.

[ajb]

Lots of people forget that few people have heard of Paul Ryan or his budget, and most of those that have have forgotten the specifics. If the Right can quickly define Ryan, which should be doable, he could well be a positive.

Obama would remind them, and no amount of right wing spin could cover the fact that Ryan's budget calls for slashing social security and medicare. Fox News is good at what they do, but they're not that good.

According to the CBO, Ryan's plan would leave the average person who hits 65 in 2030 paying 68 percent of their own health-care costs, since his proposal is indexed to the Consumer Price Index, and not to increases in health-care costs.  I don't think today's 45-year-olds will like that, once it's explained to them.

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/121xx/doc12128/04-05-ryan_letter.pdf

[Lief 🗽]

Picking Ryan makes the election about the Ryan budget, and the Ryan budget is a political loser.

[Lambsbread]

Wisconsin - would end up going R
Ohio - goes R to begin with
Iowa - not going R
Pennsylvania - not going R
New Hampshire - not going R
Virginia - going R to begin with
North Carolina - going R to begin with
Florida - going R to begin with
Colorado - might go R
Nevada - might go R
Arizona - going R to begin with
And how does he stack up against Biden? - he'd wipe the floor with Biden

[Oakvale]

He's a total creep, looks about twelve, created an insane fraud of a "budget". He won't be the pick, of course, but he'd be a disaster.

Romney should avoid picking a right-wing maniac. Go with Portman or someone boring like that. I would have said McDonnell before that ultrasound rape thing.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Wisconsin - would end up going R
Ohio - goes R to begin with Romney hasnt lead in a poll since April. Is more Dem than Virginia right now.
Iowa - not going R Leaning R
Pennsylvania - not going R
New Hampshire - not going R
Virginia - going R to begin with Toss-Up
North Carolina - going R to begin with
Florida - going R to begin with Seniors will be repulsed by the Ryan budget.
Colorado - might go R Hispanics make it highly unlikely to go R
Nevada - might go R See Above
Arizona - going R to begin with
And how does he stack up against Biden? - he'd wipe the floor with Biden Do you really think someone whos been in office for about a decade can stack up in a debate between the former chairman of the foreign relations comittee and the original "Working Class Joe"?

[anvi]

It seems to me that, for putting himself out on a limb and putting a controversial but GOP-benchmark budget on the table, Ryan deserves the honor of being put on a VP shortlist and being considered.  But that same budget that gives him credibility in GOP House circles also makes him too much of a lightning rod in the VP spot for a general right now.  Portman doesn't draw anywhere near that much fire, he stands a chance of helping Romney in a much more electorally vital state than Wisconsin, and he can legitimately be sold as an experienced dealmaker.  If Romney wins and lots of GOP budget priorities get passed during his presidency, then I think Ryan's light shines much brighter later.  But not now. 

[Lambsbread]

Do you really think someone whos been in office for about a decade can stack up in a debate between the former chairman of the foreign relations comittee and the original "Working Class Joe"?

Yes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VAzOIT4Ef8

[pbrower2a]

How does having Paul Ryan as a veep pick help or hinder Romney in the following states?

Wisconsin -- slight, but not enough
Ohio -- disaster
Iowa -- little effect
Pennsylvania -- disaster
New Hampshire -- little effect
Virginia -- slight hurt
North Carolina -- little effect
Florida -- disaster
Colorado -- little effect
Nevada -- little effect
Arizona -- disaster

Adding three more

Indiana -- slight harm
Georgia -- little effect
Missouri -- little effect

[MorningInAmerica]

Romney-Ryan or Romney-Jindal are the ideal tickets in my opinion.

[Averroës Nix]

Lief and Oakvale have it right: The Ryan budget, in addition to being a total joke, is politically unpopular. It's difficult to say how significant an issue it would become during the fall campaign, but I think that it's clear that picking Ryan involves a level of risk that Romney would deem unacceptable.

[Oakvale]

I should that even calling the Ryan "budget" a budget does it a dignity it doesn't deserve. It's not a plan, it's a political prop.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How does having Paul Ryan as a veep pick help or hinder Romney in the following states?
Wisconsin  No effect
Ohio Helps
Iowa Helps
Pennsylvania No effect
New Hampshire No effect
Virginia Helps
North Carolina R to begin with
Florida R to begin with
Colorado a little
Nevada No effect
Arizona R to begin with

[RogueBeaver]

Disagree on WI (ask PPP), but otherwise THANK YOU. A guy who nearly half the country hasn't heard of (see the CNN poll I posted) isn't going to make a huge polling splash.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Do you really think someone whos been in office for about a decade can stack up in a debate between the former chairman of the foreign relations comittee and the original "Working Class Joe"?

Yes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VAzOIT4Ef8

Yeah, no.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FpPR4VPt47I