MO-Sen. All Republicans leading

[krazen1211]

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/mccaskill-trails-all-three-gop-candidates-in-senate-race/article_7dc3f2e4-d84e-11e1-a6e2-001a4bcf6878.html#.UBNcXylr14M.twitter

http://www.stltoday.com/poll-results/pdf_44d876fc-d845-11e1-8152-0019bb30f31a.html

Brunner 52-41
Steelman 49-41
Akin 49-44

[Miles]

Yikes...Rasmussen isn't the outlier anymore.

[tmthforu94]

This race has surprised me - I always thought it'd be one of the closest races on election night.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

What is this pollster's track record?

[Talleyrand]

Okay, I think it's pretty obvious by now that that this seat is the most likely to flip, with the exception of North Dakota. McCaskill just can't seem to get Missourians to like her. Her COH is also depleting and she's going to be outspent heavily in the fall. If she's unable to post a lead at this stage, I don't she has a chance.

Prognosticators should go ahead and move this to Likely R.

[xavier110]

Okay, I think it's pretty obvious by now that that this seat is the most likely to flip, with the exception of North Dakota.

I'd say this is much likelier to flip than ND? ND, in fact, could be close.

[RogueBeaver]

She'll go down hard, stick a fork in her.

[Talleyrand]

Okay, I think it's pretty obvious by now that that this seat is the most likely to flip, with the exception of North Dakota.

I'd say this is much likelier to flip than ND? ND, in fact, could be close.

Sorry, I meant Nebraska. Yeah, ND could still be close. Heitkamp seems to be doing everything correctly, but it remains to be seen whether she'll lose because of the dynamics of the state. I' say she goes down 52-47 just off of gut feeling about what'll happen at the end of the campaign.

[Tender Branson]

What is this pollster's track record?

Well, take a look:

McCain+1 (actual: McCain+0.5)

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=2920081029009

Blunt+9 (actual: Blunt+13)

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2010/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=29320101020009

McCaskill+1 (actual: McCaskill+2)

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=29200611030

Bush+5 (actual: Bush+7)

https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=29200410290

Bush+1 (actual: Bush+3)

http://www3.nationaljournal.com/members/polltrack/2000/races/whitehouse/wh2000gen_state2.htm#MASON-DIXON-MO

...

So, yes. They are really good.

[socaldem]

So is McCaskill the Blanche Lincoln of 2012?

Missouri is a tough state and getting tougher. And, yes, McCaskill's little airplane tax return bruhaha was ugly.

But McCaskill really is one of the cleverer politicians out there. Once she gets an opponent, I think she just may be able to Harry Reid her way to reelection...

If Mr. Moneybags wins the primary, I think it will be extremely tough, but I think she can beat Steelman or Akin...

[RogueBeaver]

Looks like it. Even the gubernatorial is tightening, but Nixon probably pulls through with a smaller margin than he anticipated.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://news.yahoo.com/sarah-palin-cuts-tv-ad-sarah-steelman-missouri-211552325--abc-news-politics.html?_esi=1

It should be noted that Brunner has only attained a six point lead after sending millions into this. With the proper star power, I think Steelman can rally the TP and win.