KY-06: Republican poll has Chandler up 5 on Barr

[Miles]

Report. This changed very little from the NRCC's last poll of this race (back in February):

Ben Chandler (D)- 47% (49)
Andy Barr (R)- 42% (42)

I posted a bad link at first. I've fixed it.

[krazen1211]

This looks like a junk poll. Chandler will win by 10-13.

[Miles]

This looks like a junk poll. Chandler will win by 10-13.

Good; we finally agree on something

[morgieb]

Why would the Republicans even target a seat they didn't win in 2010?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why would the Republicans even target a seat they didn't win in 2010?

That's sort of like asking "why would the Democrats target Chris Shays in 2008 when they couldn't even beat him in 2006?"  Just because someone survives a wave (even a 2010-level wave), doesn't mean they're invincible.  That said, Chandler's probably going to win by 10-15 points.

[Miles]

Why would the Republicans even target a seat they didn't win in 2010?

That's sort of like asking "why would the Democrats target Chris Shays in 2008 when they couldn't even beat him in 2006?"  Just because someone survives a wave (even a 2010-level wave), doesn't mean they're invincible.  That said, Chandler's probably going to win by 10-15 points.

This. Similar story with Larry Kissell. He came within a few hundred votes of ousting Robin Hayes in 2006; in 2008 he won by 10 points. That said, that probably won't be the case here given Chandler's family popularity and the Democratic lean of this area in local elections.

[timothyinMD]

Chander is not safe. He is a liberal Democrat representing a conservative district.  Kentucky is going to swing sharply anti-Obama and that could very well sink Chandler

[Miles]

Chander is not safe. He is a liberal Democrat representing a conservative district.  Kentucky is going to swing sharply anti-Obama and that could very well sink Chandler

Well, he isn't exactly safe, but he votes with his party 'only' 74% of the time. Statistically speaking, that makes him more conservative than 92% of his caucus.

Also, this poll has Obama trailing 53-45 in the district, very similar to his 55-43 in 2008. So, a pervasive anti-Obama swing doesn't seem to be developing.

[minionofmidas]

Why would the Republicans even target a seat they didn't win in 2010?

That's sort of like asking "why would the Democrats target Chris Shays in 2008 when they couldn't even beat him in 2006?"  Just because someone survives a wave (even a 2010-level wave), doesn't mean they're invincible.  That said, Chandler's probably going to win by 10-15 points.

This. Similar story with Larry Kissell. He came within a few hundred votes of ousting Robin Hayes in 2006; in 2008 he won by 10 points. That said, that probably won't be the case here given Chandler's family popularity and the Democratic lean of this area in local elections.

Slight difference: Chandler was made - somewhat marginally, though perhaps less so at the state and congressional than the presidential level - more Democratic in the intervening redistricting, the enacted compromise decried by Lexington Republicans as "the Ben Chandler Lifetime Employment Act". Which is hilarious hyperbole, of course, but still hyperbole rooted in actual fact.

[morgieb]

Why would the Republicans even target a seat they didn't win in 2010?

That's sort of like asking "why would the Democrats target Chris Shays in 2008 when they couldn't even beat him in 2006?"  Just because someone survives a wave (even a 2010-level wave), doesn't mean they're invincible.  That said, Chandler's probably going to win by 10-15 points.

Difference is that there won't be another minor wave like 2008 in 2012.

[minionofmidas]

One interesting aspect is that 2006 was not at all "wavey" unlike 2008 and 2010; despite the number of seats changing hands it was much more about individual incumbents, much less of a national semi-uniform swing. This is also why some of the 2006 gains were lost again in 2008 once local Republicans got a presentable candidate, of course.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Chander is not safe. He is a liberal Democrat representing a conservative district.  Kentucky is going to swing sharply anti-Obama and that could very well sink Chandler

Well, he isn't exactly safe, but he votes with his party 'only' 74% of the time. Statistically speaking, that makes him more conservative than 92% of his caucus.

Also, this poll has Obama trailing 53-45 in the district, very similar to his 55-43 in 2008. So, a pervasive anti-Obama swing doesn't seem to be developing.

Also, Chandler is not a liberal by any stretch of the imagination.  He's a Democrat, but that doesn't make him a liberal.  He's also a strong incumbent and a very good fit for his district in general.  Additionally, this district isn't so Republican that Barr can win simply because of the R next to his name.  Although the R should get him about 40% (and Obama being on the ticket will probably be good for another 3-5%), Barr is simply not a strong enough candidate to beat Chandler in a non-wave year.  The Republicans' best bet was to find a new, stronger candidate for this cycle, but I guess they can try again in 2014.