An early look at 2006 House races

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New England

Maine: Allen and Michaud both look safe. If Snowe runs for Governer one of them will probably run for Senate, but that's looking like a fairly big "if" right now.

New Hampshire: Bradley and Bass both look safe... while NH-2 is naturally Democratic (amazing how things change isn't it?) it'll only flip if Bass retires.

Vermont: Sanders is safe

Massachusetts: All ten incumbents are safe... if any of 'em retires I'd say the only district that *might* flip would be MA-10... even then it'd be a stretch.

Rhode Island: Langevin might run for Senate, but both districts are rock solid for anyone with a "D" next to their name.

Connecticut: Three out of five incumbents are safe as houses, but CT-2 *might* flip with a strong Democratic candidate (I doubt it though) and after his scare last year, I'm not sure what Shays will do in CT-4.

Next: New York

[phk]

I think most incumbents that run for re-election will squeak by in New England.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think most incumbents that run for re-election will squeak by in New England.

Connecticut, NH, and Deleware are most Republican. Hopefullly that changes.

[phk]

Since when was Delaware in New England?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Since when was Delaware in New England?

I figured I'd mention it with the other 2 states.

[J. J.]

Since when was Delaware in New England?

I figured I'd mention it with the other 2 states.

Add geography to the list.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Since when was Delaware in New England?

I figured I'd mention it with the other 2 states.

Add geography to the list.

Hey, J Statistics impaired, I know where Deleware is.

[nini2287]

In PA, I think 6 (Gerlach) and 8 (Fitzpatrick) will be the most competitive races, with outside shots at 13 (Schwartz), 15 (Dent) and 17 (Holden) being competitive if a strong challenger is found.

[Keystone Phil]

In PA, I think 6 (Gerlach) and 8 (Fitzpatrick) will be the most competitive races, with outside shots at 13 (Schwartz), 15 (Dent) and 17 (Holden) being competitive if a strong challenger is found.

PA 6 might be competitive. Gerlach almost got beat by a nobody. That was embarrassing. I don't know why the Dems insist on PA 8 being competitive. There are no serious candidates there on the Dem side. Fitz will be there for awhile.

PA 13 should be a good race. Schwartz is beatable especially after she works up an out of touch liberal record.

[Keystone Phil]

with outside shots at 13 (Schwartz), 15 (Dent) and 17 (Holden) being competitive if a strong challenger is found.

Also, PA 15 is becoming a pretty solid Republican district.

[Jake]

RS-Rock Solid
SF-Safe
ST-Strong
LN-Lean
TO-Tossup

PA  1 RS Dem
PA  2 RS Dem
PA  3 SF GOP
PA  4 ST GOP if Heinz runs
PA  5 RS GOP
PA  6 LN GOP imcubency for Gerlach
PA  7 SF GOP
PA  8 LN GOP RINO factor can't be discounted, now they need a good candidate
PA  9 RS GOP
PA 10 SF GOP
PA 11 SF Dem unless Kanjorski retires
PA 12 RS Dem
PA 13 ST Dem I'll leave this one for Phil & ID
PA 14 RS Dem
PA 15 SF GOP
PA 16 RS GOP
PA 17 SF Dem Unless Holden runs for Senate, in which case  ST GOP
PA 18 SF GOP
PA 19 RS GOP

As of now, competitive races are PA 6, 8 maybe 4,13

Shout me down

[Keystone Phil]

RS-Rock Solid
SF-Safe
ST-Strong
LN-Lean
TO-Tossup

PA  1 RS Dem
PA  2 RS Dem
PA  3 SF GOP
PA  4 ST GOP if Heinz runs
PA  5 RS GOP
PA  6 LN GOP imcubency for Gerlach
PA  7 SF GOP
PA  8 LN GOP RINO factor can't be discounted, now they need a good candidate
PA  9 RS GOP
PA 10 SF GOP
PA 11 SF Dem unless Kanjorski retires
PA 12 RS Dem
PA 13 ST Dem I'll leave this one for Phil & ID
PA 14 RS Dem
PA 15 SF GOP
PA 16 RS GOP
PA 17 SF Dem Unless Holden runs for Senate, in which case  ST GOP
PA 18 SF GOP
PA 19 RS GOP

As of now, competitive races are PA 6, 8 maybe 4,13

Shout me down

Wait. How can PA 4 be strong Republican if Heinz runs? If anything, it would be closer. I still think Hart can beat him though.

Also, PA 13 will never be "strong" Dem.

[Jake]

RS-Rock Solid
SF-Safe
ST-Strong
LN-Lean
TO-Tossup

PA  1 RS Dem
PA  2 RS Dem
PA  3 SF GOP
PA  4 ST GOP if Heinz runs
PA  5 RS GOP
PA  6 LN GOP imcubency for Gerlach
PA  7 SF GOP
PA  8 LN GOP RINO factor can't be discounted, now they need a good candidate
PA  9 RS GOP
PA 10 SF GOP
PA 11 SF Dem unless Kanjorski retires
PA 12 RS Dem
PA 13 ST Dem I'll leave this one for Phil & ID
PA 14 RS Dem
PA 15 SF GOP
PA 16 RS GOP
PA 17 SF Dem Unless Holden runs for Senate, in which case  ST GOP
PA 18 SF GOP
PA 19 RS GOP

As of now, competitive races are PA 6, 8 maybe 4,13

Shout me down

Wait. How can PA 4 be strong Republican if Heinz runs? If anything, it would be closer. I still think Hart can beat him though.

Also, PA 13 will never be "strong" Dem.

I was going to put a ? after the If Heinz runs.  If he runs maybe Lean Hart.

As for PA 13, Schwartz smacked down Melissa Brown by what, 20 points?  Incumbency and that beating make it Strong Dem in my eyes. But, you know it best.

[Keystone Phil]

RS-Rock Solid
SF-Safe
ST-Strong
LN-Lean
TO-Tossup

PA  1 RS Dem
PA  2 RS Dem
PA  3 SF GOP
PA  4 ST GOP if Heinz runs
PA  5 RS GOP
PA  6 LN GOP imcubency for Gerlach
PA  7 SF GOP
PA  8 LN GOP RINO factor can't be discounted, now they need a good candidate
PA  9 RS GOP
PA 10 SF GOP
PA 11 SF Dem unless Kanjorski retires
PA 12 RS Dem
PA 13 ST Dem I'll leave this one for Phil & ID
PA 14 RS Dem
PA 15 SF GOP
PA 16 RS GOP
PA 17 SF Dem Unless Holden runs for Senate, in which case  ST GOP
PA 18 SF GOP
PA 19 RS GOP

As of now, competitive races are PA 6, 8 maybe 4,13

Shout me down

Wait. How can PA 4 be strong Republican if Heinz runs? If anything, it would be closer. I still think Hart can beat him though.

Also, PA 13 will never be "strong" Dem.

I was going to put a ? after the If Heinz runs.  If he runs maybe Lean Hart.

As for PA 13, Schwartz smacked down Melissa Brown by what, 20 points?  Incumbency and that beating make it Strong Dem in my eyes. But, you know it best.

Brown lost by 15. Once Schwartz builds up the liberal record, people will notice it. I'm not saying she'll definetley lose but she won't get 56%.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

STOP WITH THE PENNSYLVANIA SEATS ITS MAKING ME SICK

[Jake]

STOP WITH THE PENNSYLVANIA SEATS ITS MAKING ME SICK

I think PA politics is the best covered area on this site.  I love it

[Keystone Phil]

STOP WITH THE PENNSYLVANIA SEATS ITS MAKING ME SICK

I think PA politics is the best covered area on this site.  I love it

Yeah I agree. Let me make it clear:  If you don't want to read about PA politics, don't go to these threads, say you hate hearing about PA, and then leave.

TN, you obviously had nothing else to say on the thread except complain.

[phk]

We should have a private PA Board.

[Keystone Phil]

We should have a private PA Board.

No thanks. PA politics shouldn't be restricted to one board just as Bush vs. Kerry wasn't restricted to one board.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

All the incumbents in Minnesota are safe if they run again. But open seats could flip. Wetterling came rather close to Kennedy and she could take the seat if he leaves to run for Senate especially if the Republicans nominate that nutcase Bachmann (that's also why Kennedy is a not an especially strong candidate, he can't even break 60% in his district.) A Peterson retirement means MN-7 could flip pretty easily, but since he's now acheived his goal of being the ranking Democrat on the Agriculture committee that is very unlikely. MN-3 could flip if Ramstad retires but I doubt he will for quite awhile. And my district, MN-1, could flip if Gutknecht retires. There has been some rumors of this, and he's hinted that he might consider a Senate run. But right now I'd bet on him running again.

[TeePee4Prez]

RS-Rock Solid
SF-Safe
ST-Strong
LN-Lean
TO-Tossup

PA  1 RS Dem
PA  2 RS Dem
PA  3 SF GOP
PA  4 ST GOP if Heinz runs
PA  5 RS GOP
PA  6 LN GOP imcubency for Gerlach
PA  7 SF GOP
PA  8 LN GOP RINO factor can't be discounted, now they need a good candidate
PA  9 RS GOP
PA 10 SF GOP
PA 11 SF Dem unless Kanjorski retires
PA 12 RS Dem
PA 13 ST Dem I'll leave this one for Phil & ID
PA 14 RS Dem
PA 15 SF GOP
PA 16 RS GOP
PA 17 SF Dem Unless Holden runs for Senate, in which case  ST GOP
PA 18 SF GOP
PA 19 RS GOP

As of now, competitive races are PA 6, 8 maybe 4,13

Shout me down

Wait. How can PA 4 be strong Republican if Heinz runs? If anything, it would be closer. I still think Hart can beat him though.

Also, PA 13 will never be "strong" Dem.

I was going to put a ? after the If Heinz runs.  If he runs maybe Lean Hart.

As for PA 13, Schwartz smacked down Melissa Brown by what, 20 points?  Incumbency and that beating make it Strong Dem in my eyes. But, you know it best.

Brown lost by 15. Once Schwartz builds up the liberal record, people will notice it. I'm not saying she'll definetley lose but she won't get 56%.

People won't care.  This is a center-left distrct that elected.. well.. a somewhat more left candidate, but I think Schwartz will be here for a while- GET USED TO IT!  Incumbency will help her.  Yeah, I'd say this is now Dem ST, though not SF or RS.  Phil, at least this race proved it's now just that.  It was Dem LN before this election.  You can not discount the RINO factor in Montco.  It is stronger than the conservative NE Philly DINOcrats that forgot to change their registration after Reagan and have voted GOP ever since.   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New York

Long Island: Chances are that the GOP will try to regain a seat it never should have lost (NY-1) but although another competative race is likely, the chances are that they'll fail again... although they'll probably win it back when Bishop retires.
The other Long Island races will be pretty dull unless an incumbent retires...

NYC: I don't see any of these flipping any time soon. Could be some brutal primaries though.

Upstate: NY-27 has the potential to be competative although it depends what sort of record Higgins builds up in Congress. NY-29 was as close as it was because Kuhl had a messy divorce or something similer (can't remember exactly)... I don't think the Democrats will seriously target him though (it's very much a Republican district). Still, stranger things have happend.
Another suprisingly close district was NY-26... I'm not sure why. Can anyone who knows the district (Buffalo/Rochester suburbs by the look of it) tell me why?
Most districts in Upstate NY could become fairly competative if the incumbent retires.

[minionofmidas]

STOP WITH THE PENNSYLVANIA SEATS ITS MAKING ME SICK

I think PA politics is the best covered area on this site.  I love it

Yeah I agree. Let me make it clear:  If you don't want to read about PA politics, don't go to these threads, say you hate hearing about PA, and then leave.

TN, you obviously had nothing else to say on the thread except complain.

Uh...unlike BR's sex threads, this one wasn't clearly marked as a Penn thread.

Al, change the thread title please!

[Keystone Phil]

RS-Rock Solid
SF-Safe
ST-Strong
LN-Lean
TO-Tossup

PA  1 RS Dem
PA  2 RS Dem
PA  3 SF GOP
PA  4 ST GOP if Heinz runs
PA  5 RS GOP
PA  6 LN GOP imcubency for Gerlach
PA  7 SF GOP
PA  8 LN GOP RINO factor can't be discounted, now they need a good candidate
PA  9 RS GOP
PA 10 SF GOP
PA 11 SF Dem unless Kanjorski retires
PA 12 RS Dem
PA 13 ST Dem I'll leave this one for Phil & ID
PA 14 RS Dem
PA 15 SF GOP
PA 16 RS GOP
PA 17 SF Dem Unless Holden runs for Senate, in which case  ST GOP
PA 18 SF GOP
PA 19 RS GOP

As of now, competitive races are PA 6, 8 maybe 4,13

Shout me down

Wait. How can PA 4 be strong Republican if Heinz runs? If anything, it would be closer. I still think Hart can beat him though.

Also, PA 13 will never be "strong" Dem.

I was going to put a ? after the If Heinz runs.  If he runs maybe Lean Hart.

As for PA 13, Schwartz smacked down Melissa Brown by what, 20 points?  Incumbency and that beating make it Strong Dem in my eyes. But, you know it best.

Brown lost by 15. Once Schwartz builds up the liberal record, people will notice it. I'm not saying she'll definetley lose but she won't get 56%.

People won't care.  This is a center-left distrct that elected.. well.. a somewhat more left candidate, but I think Schwartz will be here for a while- GET USED TO IT!  Incumbency will help her.  Yeah, I'd say this is now Dem ST, though not SF or RS.  Phil, at least this race proved it's now just that.  It was Dem LN before this election.  You can not discount the RINO factor in Montco.  It is stronger than the conservative NE Philly DINOcrats that forgot to change their registration after Reagan and have voted GOP ever since.   

Schwartz was very lucky in this race so I don't think anything was proven. I don't think she'll be around long. She thinks she so popular, will run for Senate, give up this seat and lose the Senate race. Good luck finding a job after that, Congresswoman!

[Keystone Phil]

STOP WITH THE PENNSYLVANIA SEATS ITS MAKING ME SICK

I think PA politics is the best covered area on this site.  I love it

Yeah I agree. Let me make it clear:  If you don't want to read about PA politics, don't go to these threads, say you hate hearing about PA, and then leave.

TN, you obviously had nothing else to say on the thread except complain.

Uh...unlike BR's sex threads, this one wasn't clearly marked as a Penn thread.

Al, change the thread title please!

What I should have said was "Don't read our posts." No one forces anyone to read them. Skip over what I say for all I care. You should expect PA 13 and other PA Congressional races to be brought up in a thread about House races.