Principle Does You No Good If You Lose

[Vosem]

After allegations of alcoholism emerged against George H.W. Bush's nominee for Secretary of Defense, John Tower, it seemed possible that the Senate (where he had accumulated many enemies over the years) would not confirm him to the position; however, ultimately Tower was confirmed by a narrow 53-47 vote. Tower would go on to avoid the 1991 plane crash that claimed his life in real life, successfully rehabilitating his career in his capacity as SecDef and peacefully retiring in 1993 after Bush lost reelection to Bill Clinton in the 1992 elections. Tower died peacefully in 2001.

Because Tower was serving as SecDef, a certain U.S. Representative from Wyoming, Richard “Dick” Cheney, remained in Congress. When the leader of the Republicans in the House, Representative Robert “Bob” Michel of Illinois, announced he would not seek reelection in the 1994 elections, Minority Whip Dick Cheney came into conflict with U.S. Representative Newt Gingrich, of Georgia, as both sought to succeed Michel as leader of the House Republicans. Cheney would narrowly defeat Gingrich, and Gingrich's call for a Republican 'Contract with America' would be ignored for (almost) another decade.

Due to the backlash over President Clinton's attempt to implement a universal healthcare system for the United States in 1993, Republicans were very successful in the 1994 midterms¹. Republicans picked up 7  Senate seats (the Tennessee Senate delegation flipped from entirely Democratic to completely Republican), and then convinced 2 Democratic Senators, Bill Shelby of Alabama and Ben Campbell of Colorado, to switch parties, garnering Republicans a 53-47 majority (which they successfully defended when Gordon Smith was elected in a special election in Oregon in early 1996 to replace Bob Packwood). Bob Dole, of Kansas, became Majority Leader. Republicans also enjoyed a net gain of 33 House seats, narrowing their disadvantage their to just a 226-209 Democratic majority, assuming one counted independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont as a Democrat. Tom Foley, of Washington, remained Speaker.

Notable 1994 Senate Elections:
Pennsylvania: Harris Wofford (D) reelected

1994 Senate Map:

Notable 1994 Gubernatorial Elections:
Alabama: Jim Folsom, Jr. (D) reelected
Connecticut: Bill Curry (D) retiring-replaces Lowell Weicker, Jr. (I)
Maine: Joseph Brennan (D) retiring-replaces John McKernan, Jr. (R )
New York: Mario Cuomo (D) reelected
Rhode Island: Myrth York (D) retiring-replaces Bruce Sundlun (D)
South Carolina: Nick Theodore (D) retiring-replaces David Beasley (R )

1994 Gubernatorial Map:

Notable 1994 House of Representatives Elections:
Arkansas 4: Jay Bradford (D) defeats Jay Dickey (R )
California 22: Walter Capps (D) retiring-replaces Michael Huffington (R )
California 49: Lynn Schenk (D) reelected
Georgia 7: George Darden (D) reelected
Indiana 8: Frank McCloskey (D) reelected
Kentucky 1: Thomas Barlow (D) reelected
Maine 1: Dennis Dutremble (D) retiring-replaces Thomas Andrews (D)
Massachusetts 6: John Tierney (D) defeats Peter Torkildsen (R )
Nebraska 2: Peter Hoagland (D) reelected
Nevada 1: James Bilbray (D) reelected
New Jersey 8: Herbert Klein (D) reelected
North Carolina 4: David Price (D) reelected
Ohio 6: Ted Strickland (D) reelected
Oklahoma 2: Virgil Cooper (D) retiring-replaces Mike Synar (D)
Oregon 5: Catherine Webber (D) retiring-replaces Michael Kopetski (D)
Pennsylvania 13: Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky (D) reelected
Pennsylvania 21: Bill Leavens (D) retiring-replaces Tom Ridge (R )
Washington 1: Maria Cantwell (D) reelected
Washington 5: Tom Foley (D) reelected
Washington 9: Mike Kreidler (D) reelected
Wisconsin 1: Peter Barca (D) reelected
Wyoming at-Large: Dick Cheney (R ) reelected

¹Well, to the inhabitants of this timeline. To us, this 1994 is markedly less decisive than real life's.

[morgieb]

Continue.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Awesome start. I seem to remember someone trying this exact POD a few years ago.

[Vosem]

With Tom Foley continuing to be in charge of the House of Representatives, Foley managed to pass budgets in 1995 and 1996 that were easily passed by the Republican Senate, where Republican leader Bob Dole was chiefly concerned with being elected President. The greatest conflict was over a welfare reform bill – welfare reform had been a key part of both Clinton's campaign in 1992¹ and of the Republicans' congressional campaign in 1994. The bill was first introduced in the Senate by Republican Trent Lott of Mississippi. The bill, which would have drastically cut back on welfare programs in the United States, was supported by the public, but encountered significant opposition from Democrats. After it passed in the Senate, 53-47, the bill went to the House. As negotiations continued there, public opinion of both President Clinton and Speaker Foley managed to precipitously decline. (It is sometimes claimed the Republican success in 1995, seeing Larry Forgy and Mike Foster pick up two gubernatorial seats, was because of this, but these victories predate the welfare controversy). Then, in May of 1996, Clinton came out in favor of the bill (leaving his Republican opponent, Bob Dole, short of a talking point). Left-wing opposition in the House was nevertheless too much to overcome, and Foley managed to see the bill defeated 220-215. Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts, would comment that Clinton managed to save himself at the cost of both congressional Democrats and welfare recipients. Republicans gained a net 5 Senate seats, increasing their majority to 58-42, with Trent Lott, the introducer of the welfare reform bill, becoming Senate Majority Leader. Republicans also manage to pick up 22 seats in the House of Representatives (more than they did in 1994), and achieve a 231-204 Republican majority (counting Bernie Sanders as a Democrat), making Representative Cheney, of Wyoming, Speaker.

However, Clinton did manage to save himself.

1996 Presidential Election:

Bill Clinton/Al Gore, 348 EV, 46.7% PV
Bob Dole/Jack Kemp, 190 EV, 43.2% PV
Ross Perot/Pat Choate, 0 EV, 8.4% PV

Notable 1996 Senate Elections:
Georgia: Guy Millner (R ) retiring-replaces Sam Nunn (D)
Louisiana: Woody Jenkins (R ) retiring-replaces Bennett Johnston, Jr. (D)
Montana: Dennis Rehberg (R ) defeats Max Baucus (D)
Oregon: Ron Wyden (D) retiring-replaces Mark Hatfield (R )
South Dakota: Larry Pressler (R ) reelected

1996 Senate Elections:

Notable 1996 Gubernatorial Elections:
Indiana: Stephen Goldsmith (R ) retiring-replaces Evan Bayh (D)

Notable 1996 House of Representatives Elections:
Arkansas 2: Bud Cummins (R ) retiring-replaces Ray Thornton (D)
Arkansas 4: Jay Dickey (R ) defeats Jay Bradford (D)
California 10: Bill Baker (R ) reelected
California 22: Tom Bordonaro (R ) defeats Walter Capps (D)
California 42: Linda Wilde (R ) defeats George Brown (D)
California 46: Bob Dornan (R ) reelected
California 49: Lynn Schenk (D) reelected
Georgia 7: Al Beverly (R ) defeats George Darden (D)
Hawaii 1: Orson Swindle (R ) defeats Neil Abercrombie (D)
Illinois 17: Mark Baker (R ) defeats Lane Evans (D)
Indiana 8: Frank McCloskey (D) reelected
Iowa 3: Mike Mahaffey (R ) retiring-replaces Jim R. Lightfoot (R )
Kentucky 1: Steve Hamrick (R ) defeats Thomas Barlow (D)
Maine 1: Dennis Dutremble (D) reelected
Massachusetts 6: Peter Torkildsen (R ) defeats John Tierney (D)
Nebraska 2: Lee Terry (R ) defeats Peter Hoagland (D)
Nevada 1: Don Chairez (R ) defeats James Bilbray (D)
New Jersey 8: Matthew Kirnan (R ) defeats Herbert Klein (D)
North Carolina 4: David Price (D) reelected
Ohio 6: Nancy Hollister (R ) defeats Ted Strickland (D)
Ohio 10: Martin Hoke (R ) reelected
Oklahoma 2: Virgil Cooper (D) reelected
Oregon 5: Catherine Webber (D) reelected
Pennsylvania 13: Jon Fox (R ) defeats Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky (D)
Pennsylvania 21: Bill Leavens (D) reelected
Texas 1: Ed Merritt (R ) retiring-replaces Jim Chapman (D)
Texas 17: Rudy Izzard (R ) defeats Charles Stenholm (D)
Washington 1: Maria Cantwell (D) reelected
Washington 5: Duane Alton (R ) defeats Tom Foley (D)
Washington 9: Mike Kreidler (D) reelected
Wisconsin 3: James Harsdorf (R ) retiring-replaces Steve Gunderson (D)
Wisconsin 8: David Prosser, Jr. (R ) retiring-replaces Toby Roth (R )
Wyoming at-Large: Dick Cheney (R ) reelected

¹True, although sometimes forgotten.

[GLPman]

This is great! I finished reading Cheney's autobiography a few months ago and remember wondering at one point what would have happened if he had remained in the House.

[Jerseyrules]

More please