Why are Republicans so certain of a Romney win?

[WhyteRain]

However, almost every Republican who posts on this board is 100% sure that Obama is going to lose, ignoring the hard evidence for the idea that America will be so enraged by Obamacare that that will be their only issue.  And they might be right, but why are they so certain?

I'm a former Democrat (bluedog variety) and now a registered Independent.  I think the rationale for seeing Obama lose badly is really simple:

The results of the 2010 election.

What's changed since then?

Yes, you're certain to win after the incumbent party has a bad midterm. Just ask presidents Dole, Dukakis, Mondale, Stevenson, Dewey, and Willkie.

You're not much of a reader, are you?

I asked, "What's changed since then?"

Let me help you with a couple of these, focusing on the question, "what changed?": 
1938 and 1940, World War II started.
Between 1946 and 1948, the incumbent transformed his foreign policy from unpopular pro- to popular anti-Soviet.
The 1982 election wasn't much of a "rejection" of Reagan.  His party had won 35 House and 12 Senate seats in 1980.  In 1982, he lost 26 House seats, but 14 of those were due to effective Democratic gerrymandering (I did a 50-page paper on U.S. House gerrymandering, featuring the 1982 election, in law school) and lost no Senate seats at all.
Between 1994 and 1996, the incumbent switched parties in all but name ("the erruh of big gummint is ovah").

Now, to return to my question:

What has changed between Nov. 3, 2010 and now that would give voters good reasons for changing their minds about Obama?

[Sasquatch]

Do black people's opinions not count or something?  I don't get why you just arbitrarily subtract black voters from the electorate like that.

[kenyanobama]

Republicans are confident because of their opponent's horrible record

[WhyteRain]

This is a big part of the reason: http://www.amazon.com/The-Big-Sort-Clustering-Like-Minded/dp/0618689354. When everyone you know thinks that Obama is an Atheist Kenyan Muslim Homosexual Socialist, it's difficult to imagine how there can be so many people out there who think any differently. This is a big part of the reason why so many Democrats and liberals were incredulous and shocked when Bush was reelected in 2004, even though he had been leading in the polls for months (even if not by much).

Excellent point.  I call it the "herd mentality".  It seems to be strongest in urban areas. 

[All Along The Watchtower]

This is a big part of the reason: http://www.amazon.com/The-Big-Sort-Clustering-Like-Minded/dp/0618689354. When everyone you know thinks that Obama is an Atheist Kenyan Muslim Homosexual Socialist, it's difficult to imagine how there can be so many people out there who think any differently. This is a big part of the reason why so many Democrats and liberals were incredulous and shocked when Bush was reelected in 2004, even though he had been leading in the polls for months (even if not by much).

Excellent point.  I call it the "herd mentality".  It seems to be strongest in urban areas. 

lol.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This is a big part of the reason: http://www.amazon.com/The-Big-Sort-Clustering-Like-Minded/dp/0618689354. When everyone you know thinks that Obama is an Atheist Kenyan Muslim Homosexual Socialist, it's difficult to imagine how there can be so many people out there who think any differently. This is a big part of the reason why so many Democrats and liberals were incredulous and shocked when Bush was reelected in 2004, even though he had been leading in the polls for months (even if not by much).

Excellent point.  I call it the "herd mentality".  It seems to be strongest in urban areas. 

Yeah, I've noticed it in the Birmingham, Dallas, and Salt Lake City metro areas too, actually.

[WhyteRain]

This is a big part of the reason: http://www.amazon.com/The-Big-Sort-Clustering-Like-Minded/dp/0618689354. When everyone you know thinks that Obama is an Atheist Kenyan Muslim Homosexual Socialist, it's difficult to imagine how there can be so many people out there who think any differently. This is a big part of the reason why so many Democrats and liberals were incredulous and shocked when Bush was reelected in 2004, even though he had been leading in the polls for months (even if not by much).

Excellent point.  I call it the "herd mentality".  It seems to be strongest in urban areas. 

Yeah, I've noticed it in the Birmingham, Dallas, and Salt Lake City metro areas too, actually.

Just look for voting patterns (like when 75 or 80% of residents vote for same party/candidate) and for patterns of intolerant laws involving personal behavior (smoking, sugar intake, painting your house purple, etc.).  When you see that, you'll know you're in herd-land.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

This thread needs to be killed with fire. Nothing can redeem it.

[Wisconsin+17]

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You mean people aren't color coded by the herd? 95 percent of black people voted for Obama. Seems that's the strongest herd behaviour for anything.

[kenyanobama]

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You mean people aren't color coded by the herd? 95 percent of black people voted for Obama. Seems that's the strongest herd behaviour for anything.

AMEN

[All Along The Watchtower]

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You mean people aren't color coded by the herd? 95 percent of black people voted for Obama. Seems that's the strongest herd behaviour for anything.

Solidarity.

[7,052,770]

This is a big part of the reason: http://www.amazon.com/The-Big-Sort-Clustering-Like-Minded/dp/0618689354. When everyone you know thinks that Obama is an Atheist Kenyan Muslim Homosexual Socialist, it's difficult to imagine how there can be so many people out there who think any differently. This is a big part of the reason why so many Democrats and liberals were incredulous and shocked when Bush was reelected in 2004, even though he had been leading in the polls for months (even if not by much).

Excellent point.  I call it the "herd mentality".  It seems to be strongest in urban areas. 

Yeah, I've noticed it in the Birmingham, Dallas, and Salt Lake City metro areas too, actually.

Just look for voting patterns (like when 75 or 80% of residents vote for same party/candidate) and for patterns of intolerant laws involving personal behavior (smoking, sugar intake, painting your house purple, etc.).  When you see that, you'll know you're in herd-land.

What about areas where 90% of the people vote against gay marriage because their preacher tells them to?