New JZ Analytics Poll With Commentary by John Zogby
Obama Has Four Point Lead Over Romney, 47-43%Lead remains at 13% among women and 90% among African Americans
President Barack Obama ekes out a slim 4-point lead over main GOP challenger former Governor Mitt Romney, according to a new JZ Analytics Online Poll conducted over the past weekend.
The poll was conducted June 15-18 among 1149 likely voters and has a margin-of-sampling error of +/-3 percentage points.
The new poll maintains the gender gap, with Obama continuing his 13 point lead among women (50%-37%). In other findings, the President garners 90% support among African Americans (to Romney's 5%), an increase to 67% among Hispanics (to Romney's 29%), 53% of moderates (to Romney's 32%), and 64% of 18-29 year olds (to Romney's 32%).
In other findings President Obama maintained his 46% job approval rating, with 51% disapproving of his performance. Only 41%, the same as our polls in early March and April, feel the President deserves re-election, and 29% say the U.S. is headed in the right direction, while 57% say things are on the wrong track.
In the Congressional generic ballot, 41% say they intend to vote the Democratic candidate in their district, while 37% will vote for the Republican.
Pollster John Zogby: Among the demographics I'm following most closely the president now leads: 67-29 among Hispanics, 90-5 among African Americans, 64 to 32 among 18-29 year olds, and 53-32 among moderates.
All of these put the President within striking distance of the percentages he won in 2008 but he obviously has not closed the deal. His re-elect at 41% is troublesome for him.
Another important finding, albeit a very small subgroup, is that 68% of Jewish voters give him a positive job rating. The fact that independents now slightly favor Obama over Romney is a big turn.
Methodology
JZ Analytics conducted an online survey from June 15-18 of 1149 likely voters in the US. Using trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time .Using information based on census data, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1149 is +/- 3.0 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
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