Bloomberg/Selzer: Obama leads by double-digits nationally (among likely voters)

[Tender Branson]

Obama Approval:

53-44

...

53-40 Obama/Romney

...

55-42 Obama favorable ratings
39-48 Romney favorable ratings

...

Sample:

38% DEM
33% GOP
26% IND
  3% Refused/Not Sure

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-20/obama-leads-in-poll-as-voters-view-romney-as-out-of-touch.html

[Tender Branson]

There are many strange polls out recently:

This one has Obama ahead by 13.

Rasmussen has Romney ahead by 4.

I think we need to average them and we get Obama by 4.5 points nationally.

[morgieb]

lol this sounds like bullsh**t.

[Tender Branson]

lol this sounds like bullsh**t.

Most likely.

It would be interesting to see how they got to a 53-40 result with this sample.

Assuming that Obama gets 92% of Dems (38%) - it is about 35% support.

Assuming that Obama gets about 10% of Republicans (33%) - it is about 38.3% now.

53 minus 38.3 = 14.7 points for Independents.

Which means 26/14.7 = 57%

Obama probably has to lead among Independents with at least 57% for an overall 53-40 result.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Yeah, this sounds junkish... does Bloomberg/Selzer have a very good record?

[pbrower2a]

Yeah, this sounds junkish... does Bloomberg/Selzer have a very good record?

Ignore Bloomberg -- it is Selzer that matters. Selzer had a great track record in 2008. It has polled little so far. Pollsters getting back into action can have some cobwebs to shake off.

53-40 Obama? No way -- but if a bunch of other pollsters corroborate this, then it indicates a landslide in the popular vote characteristic of Eisenhower in 1956.

53 is about what President Obama won in 2008, and 40 is the floor for loser nominees in blowout landslides in two-way races (Landon, Goldwater, McGovern).  Does anyone here see a Romney collapse? I don't; I see him consolidating the Bachmann/Gingrich/Perry/Santorum supporters behind him. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama is still ahead but no more than 4 pts

[President von Cat]

Yeah, junk poll. I love the Republican angst over it though. If this was 54-40 for Romney, I doubt many on the right would be nearly as skeptical.

[tmthforu94]

Yeah, junk poll. I love the Republican angst over it though. If this was 54-40 for Romney, I doubt many on the right would be nearly as skeptical.

Anyone on either side who would use a poll with one ahead by double-digits, either in talking points or finding an average, like Tender suggested, is ridiculously biased. There is absolutely no way either is leading by more than 5 points, let alone 10.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I just wonder how they conducted a poll and came up with this.  Any and all coverage of this poll on the major news networks is the only thing that's going to matter.

[Niemeyerite]

However, energized voters go to Romney by 2... This poll is a bit weird.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

"JUNK JUNK JUNK LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!"

Delusion springs eternal in conservaworld.

[mondale84]

Seems legit.

[/sarcasm]

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

"JUNK JUNK JUNK LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!"

Delusion springs eternal in conservaworld.

Uh, this genuinely is a ridiculously nonsensical and atrocious poll.

[NVGonzalez]

Ha! I wish!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ha! I wish!

[5280]

Where did they polls these people from, MSNBC office or in New York? lol

[NHI]

Where did they polls these people from, MSNBC office or in New York? lol

MSNBC office and the White House

[The Vorlon]

Summer polls, in general, are basically junk.

The problem is that the bulk of the electorate is so weakly engaged that the "likely voter" screening questions simply work very, very poorly.

Rasmussen (despite a myriad of other flaws that have crept in over time) right now actually has the "likely voter" screen down pretty good.  Rasmussen's likely vote screen is pretty mild and should probably be renamed "The pool of potential voters"

There is about 30% of the population that, essentially, never vote, and about 40% who just about always vote.

Of the 30% left in the middle, right now it's darn near impossible this far out to pick and choose  who will actually show up on election day, and any attempt to do a likely voter screen on these folks is essentially asking "Who had a good week?" on the campaign trail as opposed to any meaningful sort for election day. (See 15% post convention "bounces" that evaporate in two weeks)

This is also why (as some of you may remember) the Gallup Tracking Poll in the summer used to swing 15 points is 3 or 4 days because they tried to use a eve of the election likely voter screen on a more or less tuned out summertime electorate.

An approach that works fairly well right now (and the one most of the campaign pollsters use) is an "unaided ballot" on the universe of registered voters.

Rather than giving folks a choice, they essentially just say "who are you going to vote for?" - if somebody in this situation says unprompted  "Obama" or "Romney" it likely means something, and restricting the pool to RVs sifts out a bunch of the folks who never vote. - Still far from perfect, but better than the other choices.

[Wisconsin+17]

Finally a decent poll.

[Tender Branson]

Obama's own pollster says this poll is a joke:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Wisconsin+17]

And Obama's cabinet believed that the stimulus would hold unemployment under 8 percent.

When's the last time they correctly predicted anything?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They could have just not released this and no one would have laughed at them.