AZ-PPP/Project New America (D): Obama down by 3

[Tender Branson]

The poll, which surveyed 791 likely Arizona voters from June 4-5, showed Mitt Romney with a 49-46 lead over Obama, and Jeff Flake with a 43-41 lead over Richard Carmona. Both races are within the poll’s +/-3.5% margin of error.

http://projectnewamerica.com/PNAAZPollJune2012.pdf

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Translates to a 53-47 Romney win.  I can believe that.  It was 54-44 with McCain's homestate advantage in 2008. 

[tmthforu94]

This is a joke, especially the Senate numbers. Only Obama supporters believe PPP polls anymore, because its the only firm that's trying to say Obama is on track for an eas victory.

This poll was done for Project New America.

[Tender Branson]

In before Krazen:

So, actually Romney by 7/8 ...

[DrScholl]

It's all a lie, Romney will win by 20.

[5280]

Romney might win around 55% or 60% of the vote in the state.

[Miles]

I think Romney really should be up by about 6, but I entered in the poll.

[timothyinMD]

Same critique as their CO poll.  With national polls tied Romney would be up around 8 in Arizona probably 

[NVGonzalez]

Romney might win around 55% or 60% of the vote in the state.

Lol

[5280]

Romney might win around 55% or 60% of the vote in the state.

Lol

Keep laughing, that doesn't help your cause.

[Adam Griffin]

Anyone who thinks Romney is on track to get a higher % of the vote in Arizona than he will in my home state is delusional.

[Kevin]

Anyone who thinks Romney is on track to get a higher % of the vote in Arizona than he will in my home state is delusional.

No but Romney should win AZ by at least the same margin McCain carried it in 2008.

Obama is simply not going to win any states this cycle that he ddidn't win last time.

[5280]

Lets just say Romney can win between + or - 3.5% from McCain's 53% in 2008.  That would make it 50-56%

[Umengus]

Romney wins blacks by 15... gay mariage lol

Junk poll...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Romney is gonna win AZ, but that AZ senate race should be a race close looking at.

[Miles]

I don't see how Romney gets any better than Bush's 55-44 in 2004.

58% or 60%? No way.

[timothyinMD]

A high 50s Romney vote in AZ is definitely possible.. it's called SWING.  In 2008 the country swung Democrat, and those of us who predict a Romney win are predicting a swing to Republican.  If Romney wins 52% of the popular vote, he's going to get some high numbers in the Republican states just like Obama did in the Dem states

[Adam Griffin]

A high 50s Romney vote in AZ is definitely possible.. it's called SWING.  In 2008 the country swung Democrat, and those of us who predict a Romney win are predicting a swing to Republican.  If Romney wins 52% of the popular vote, he's going to get some high numbers in the Republican states just like Obama did in the Dem states

The country swung Democratic in 2008 due to many factors, none of which Romney has successfully been able to replicate. Romney winning with 52% of the vote would only be the result of a massive economic event in the next four months. Obama's "landslide" only got him 52.87% of the PV in 2008.

AZ remained virtually the same between 2004 and 2008; Obama's effect was cancelled out by McCain's home state advantage. In 2012, it would be just as likely that any slight Romney gain would be cancelled out by slight demographic shifts in favor of Democrats.

In other words:

I don't see how Romney gets any better than Bush's 55-44 in 2004.

58% or 60%? No way.

This.

[5280]

A high 50s Romney vote in AZ is definitely possible.. it's called SWING.  In 2008 the country swung Democrat, and those of us who predict a Romney win are predicting a swing to Republican.  If Romney wins 52% of the popular vote, he's going to get some high numbers in the Republican states just like Obama did in the Dem states

The country swung Democratic in 2008 due to many factors, none of which Romney has successfully been able to replicate. Romney winning with 52% of the vote would only be the result of a massive economic event in the next four months. Obama's "landslide" only got him 52.87% of the PV in 2008.

AZ remained virtually the same between 2004 and 2008; Obama's effect was cancelled out by McCain's home state advantage. In 2012, it would be just as likely that any slight Romney gain would be cancelled out by slight demographic shifts in favor of Democrats.

In other words:

I don't see how Romney gets any better than Bush's 55-44 in 2004.

58% or 60%? No way.

This.

Demographic shifts aren't assured when economic policies are most important topics for 2012.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Romney doesn't have to replicate what Obama did in 2008. Obama just has to be a miserable failure with a poor economic record. Oh wait...

If Obama loses this election, it isn't because Mitt Romney is great.

[tmthforu94]

Romney doesn't have to replicate what Obama did in 2008. Obama just has to be a miserable failure with a poor economic record. Oh wait...

If Obama loses this election, it isn't because Mitt Romney is great.

Correct, that's just a contributing factor.

[krazen1211]

I don't see how Romney gets any better than Bush's 55-44 in 2004.

58% or 60%? No way.

Easy. By winning a huge margin among whites.

[5280]

Bush senior in '88 won AZ with 59.95% of the vote compared to 38.74% Dukakis. Reagan got 60.61% of the vote in '80, it's possible to happen in 2012.

[DrScholl]

Romney won't get more than Bush or McCain got, it's not really possible. Who is going to vote for Romney that didn't vote for Bush or McCain? Most of Arizona's Democratic vote in presidential is settled.

Clinton 46%
Gore 44%
Kerry 44%
Obama 45%

[5280]

Romney won't get more than Bush or McCain got, it's not really possible. Who is going to vote for Romney that didn't vote for Bush or McCain? Most of Arizona's Democratic vote in presidential is settled.

Clinton 46%
Gore 44%
Kerry 44%
Obama 45%

Retirees that move to AZ mainly, can't think of anything else.  AZ is Florida of the west.