The most important swing county in each state

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

In other words, which county in each swing state is most likely to either decide the state, or if the state is more of a lean state, be a bellwether for national trends? I'll go with:

Colorado: Jefferson
Florida: Hillsborough
Indiana: Vigo
Iowa: Marshall (this was really hard to pick)
Michigan: Oakland
Missouri: Jefferson
Nevada: Washoe
New Hampshire: Merrimack
North Carolina: Wake
Ohio: Hamilton
Pennsylvania: Bucks
Virginia: Henrico
Wisconsin: Kenosha

[Kushahontas]

Texas - Harris

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

South Carolina: Florence is the one that tends to most closely mirror the statewide results in November.

[5280]

Colorado - Arapahoe, Jefferson, Larimer

[Napoleon]

CT is safe Obama, but if Romney does good enough in Fairfield County it will probably signal a strong national result in key suburban counties.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

San Benito county is California's bellwether.

[BaldEagle1991]

Texas - Harris

Yep.

Also Georgia - Gwinett

[TJ in Oregon]

Hamilton County is a terrible metric to compare the state of Ohio to, since it's voted for the candidate that ended up losing the state nearly as often as the winner in close statewide races. Bob Dole won it in '96 and so did both Mike DeWine and Ken Blackwell in '06, despite losing the state badly (in fairness Blackwell was from Hamilton County). It's demographics, while close to even in partisan politics just like the entire state of Ohio, are very different from the entire state's.

I would say the most important swing county in Ohio is Lake County. On the presidential level, the winner of Lake County has carried the state every presidential election since 1960 except for 1992, which was sort of a strange election. In addition it has voted for the winning gubernatorial and senatorial candidate every election at least since 1990 and possibly further.

[bgwah]

For Washington, I'd have to say Snohomish.

[Donerail]

Florida: I'd say Pinellas-Hillsborough. Both are I-4 corridor counties. St. Pete has heavily Democratic areas & to a lesser extent heavily Republican ones; most precincts are toss-ups. Hillsborough is almost a microcosm of America: Solid D/minority-heavy central city, outlying areas including rural portions that are very R, and tossup suburban areas.

[LastVoter]

Denton County for Texas.

[tmthforu94]

Indiana - Obama has become a popular figure in Vigo county, mainly thanks to his multiple stops here. Unless Romney visits Terre Haute once or twice, I expect Obama to win Vigo county in any sort of close election. Vigo county will lose its bellweather status in 2012.

For Indiana, I don't know. Madison county is a possibility. St. Josephs county will certainly be interesting as well.

[NVGonzalez]

Nevada: Washoe

Yup my home County is the most important County here.

[Joe Republic]

Nevada: Washoe

Yup my home County is the most important County here.

The most important swing county, you mean. 

[tpfkaw]

Massachusetts:  Barnstable (national bellweather, though a case could be made for Norfolk or Essex given Romney's home state advantage), Hampden (decides state)

[BaldEagle1991]

Massachusetts:  Barnstable (national bellweather, though a case could be made for Norfolk or Essex given Romney's home state advantage), Hampden (decides state)

Plymouth is more of a bellweather than any of these I think. 

Also Florida - Duval, which contains Jacksonville. I think whoever wins Jacksonville this time around will win Florida.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

For Kentucky, I would say Marion County, but I think it's almost a given that Obama will pick it up.

[tpfkaw]

Massachusetts:  Barnstable (national bellweather, though a case could be made for Norfolk or Essex given Romney's home state advantage), Hampden (decides state)

Plymouth is more of a bellweather than any of these I think.

No, Plymouth has been heavily trending Republican (Obama won it by the same margin as nationally last time, compared to Kerry who did 11% better than nationwide, and Gore who did 15% better).

[Donerail]

Also Florida - Duval, which contains Jacksonville. I think whoever wins Jacksonville this time around will win Florida.

Duval is Republican and will continue to go Republican. Duval has gone Democratic twice in the last 52 years, once in 1960 and once in 1976 (and bonus racist points for going for Wallace in 68). Some swing county. Flagler or Osceola County might be a better bellwether as well (or even Pasco/Hernando).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's not how elections work.

[NVGonzalez]

Nevada: Washoe

Yup my home County is the most important County here.

That too

[cinyc]

I calculated this for states that held Senate elections in 2010 by using state PVIs here.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I calculated this for states that held Senate elections in 2010 by using state PVIs here.

Those were just the counties closest to the statewide average for one election. Alpine, Calfiornia certainly fails as a bellwether long term.

[Donerail]

I calculated this for states that held Senate elections in 2010 by using state PVIs here.

Madison County isn't really a swing or bellwether county, but I'd agree with your analysis for Hillsborough and Flagler. Jefferson might be a bit better than Madison, actually.

[cinyc]

I calculated this for states that held Senate elections in 2010 by using state PVIs here.

Those were just the counties closest to the statewide average for one election. Alpine, Calfiornia certainly fails as a bellwether long term.

I used PVIs, so it's the counties closest to the statewide average over the past two Presidential elections, not just 2008.  By definition, that shows recent trends, not long-term trends.  Alpine, California was a decent bellwether for recent Presidential elections - as good as Santa Barbara and Imperial and slightly better than San Benito, which was pretty decent, too.