If Obama wins, he will be the first President to be re-elected with a reduced...
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Author Topic: If Obama wins, he will be the first President to be re-elected with a reduced...  (Read 2301 times)
Indy Prez
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« on: June 15, 2012, 06:13:48 PM »
electoral college and popular vote since FDR in 1940. But I'm not sure I count that since it was an unprecedented unbested third term, so maybe Wilson? But then again he did win a larger popular vote share in 1916. So you've got to go back more than a century to find..? Anybody know?
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2012, 06:30:23 PM »
It's June. For all we know, Obama could win Kansas or he could lose Maryland.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2012, 06:57:39 PM »
IF is the key-word here.

I don't think Obama will be able to pull it off this time around.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2012, 07:25:04 PM »
Oh wow, Indy Prez, I didn't know you could predict the future. What a valuable talent! You think you could share some lottery numbers with us?
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Napoleon
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« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2012, 07:38:47 PM »
Quote from: Snowstalker on June 15, 2012, 06:30:23 PM
It's June. For all we know, Obama could win Kansas or he could lose Maryland.
 
we know neither of those will happen.
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5280
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« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2012, 07:39:14 PM »
Before the primaries, Obama had about a 75% chance of getting reelected.  After the primaries and the dismal jobs report for May and bad spring news for Obama, he has about 45% winning reelection.  I just don't see how he's going to pull this off.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2012, 07:40:32 PM »
I don't think any president has ever won a *second* term with a reduced popular vote and electoral vote %age from his first election (as you mention, FDR did that for his 3rd term, but not his 2nd).  It's happened where they'll win with a reduced popular vote but increased electoral vote and vice versa, but whenever both go down, then the incumbent loses.  So if both go down for Obama and he still wins, it would be a first.
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NHI
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« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2012, 07:42:35 PM »
Quote from: Rockefeller on June 15, 2012, 06:57:39 PM
IF is the key-word here.

I don't think Obama will be able to pull it off this time around.
It's going to be a tough fight, but I agree, Obama's going to lose.
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mondale84
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« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2012, 07:47:12 PM »
Quote from: NHI on June 15, 2012, 07:42:35 PM
Quote from: Rockefeller on June 15, 2012, 06:57:39 PM
IF is the key-word here.

I don't think Obama will be able to pull it off this time around.
It's going to be a tough fight, but I agree, Obama's going to lose.

You guys are going to regret these hasty predictions...
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Penelope
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« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2012, 07:50:15 PM »
Quote from: Snowstalker on June 15, 2012, 06:30:23 PM
It's June. For all we know, Obama could win Kansas or he could lose Maryland.

Both of those are incredibly unlikely to happen. Yes, 'for all we know', and all that, but Maryland going for Romney is about as possible as Obama being revealed to be a reptilian alien during the second debate.

Now I do agree, though, with the larger point here. It's June, we've had no debates, and yet people are acting like this election is pretty much over.
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NHI
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2012, 08:31:27 PM »
Quote from: mondale84 on June 15, 2012, 07:47:12 PM
Quote from: NHI on June 15, 2012, 07:42:35 PM
Quote from: Rockefeller on June 15, 2012, 06:57:39 PM
IF is the key-word here.

I don't think Obama will be able to pull it off this time around.
It's going to be a tough fight, but I agree, Obama's going to lose.

You guys are going to regret these hasty predictions...
I don't think so.
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President von Cat
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2012, 09:21:25 PM »
To the opening post, I say..

So what?
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nhmagic
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« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2012, 10:07:31 PM »
Quote from: NHI on June 15, 2012, 08:31:27 PM
Quote from: mondale84 on June 15, 2012, 07:47:12 PM
Quote from: NHI on June 15, 2012, 07:42:35 PM
Quote from: Rockefeller on June 15, 2012, 06:57:39 PM
IF is the key-word here.

I don't think Obama will be able to pull it off this time around.
It's going to be a tough fight, but I agree, Obama's going to lose.

You guys are going to regret these hasty predictions...
I don't think so.
NHI, did you go to the rally in Stratham today?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2012, 10:08:08 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on June 15, 2012, 07:40:32 PM
I don't think any president has ever won a *second* term with a reduced popular vote and electoral vote %age from his first election (as you mention, FDR did that for his 3rd term, but not his 2nd).  It's happened where they'll win with a reduced popular vote but increased electoral vote and vice versa, but whenever both go down, then the incumbent loses.  So if both go down for Obama and he still wins, it would be a first.


I think Wilson did...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2012, 10:18:38 PM »
Quote from: President Polnut on June 15, 2012, 10:08:08 PM
Quote from: Mr. Morden on June 15, 2012, 07:40:32 PM
I don't think any president has ever won a *second* term with a reduced popular vote and electoral vote %age from his first election (as you mention, FDR did that for his 3rd term, but not his 2nd).  It's happened where they'll win with a reduced popular vote but increased electoral vote and vice versa, but whenever both go down, then the incumbent loses.  So if both go down for Obama and he still wins, it would be a first.


I think Wilson did...

No, his popular vote %age went up from 1912 to 1916.  Of course, there was the special circumstance of having such a strong 3rd party candidate in 1912, but it still doesn't quite meet the criteria being described here.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #15 on: June 15, 2012, 10:19:38 PM »
Wilson's margin in the PV went down, but he won a greater percentage of it overall.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #16 on: June 15, 2012, 10:22:35 PM »
Quote from: RockyIce on June 15, 2012, 07:39:14 PM
Before the primaries, Obama had about a 75% chance of getting reelected.  After the primaries and the dismal jobs report for May and bad spring news for Obama, he has about 45% winning reelection.  I just don't see how he's going to pull this off.

Didn't W. Bush had the same 45% chance at this time in 2004?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #17 on: June 15, 2012, 10:27:18 PM »
In fact, if you ignore the electoral college and consider just the popular vote, then the last incumbent president to win a second term with a reduced popular vote %age from his first victory was Andrew Jackson in 1832.  And I guess he was the only one to do it, since there was no popular vote before the 1820s.
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jfern
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« Reply #18 on: June 15, 2012, 10:52:36 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on June 15, 2012, 10:27:18 PM
In fact, if you ignore the electoral college and consider just the popular vote, then the last incumbent president to win a second term with a reduced popular vote %age from his first victory was Andrew Jackson in 1832.  And I guess he was the only one to do it, since there was no popular vote before the 1820s.


The popular vote existed in some states before then. Washington and Madison had huge drops.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2012, 01:14:56 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on June 15, 2012, 10:27:18 PM
In fact, if you ignore the electoral college and consider just the popular vote, then the last incumbent president to win a second term with a reduced popular vote %age from his first victory was Andrew Jackson in 1832.  And I guess he was the only one to do it, since there was no popular vote before the 1820s.


I'm imagining an "Atlas Forum 1820 Election" board.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2012, 02:30:03 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on June 15, 2012, 07:40:32 PM
I don't think any president has ever won a *second* term with a reduced popular vote and electoral vote %age from his first election (as you mention, FDR did that for his 3rd term, but not his 2nd).  It's happened where they'll win with a reduced popular vote but increased electoral vote and vice versa, but whenever both go down, then the incumbent loses.  So if both go down for Obama and he still wins, it would be a first.


I know this goes waaaaay back, but James Madison barely won a second term.
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