WI: Rasmussen: Romney now leads

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Wisconsin is only in play because of Walker's success.

Did everyone get amnesia about how close Wisconsin was in 2000 and 2004?  Wisconsin is very much in play.  2008 was an anomaly

2000 was close only because of Nader. 1992 and 1996 are also problematic comparison years because of Perot.

Wisconsin margin compared to national margin.
2008 D+8
2004 D+3
2000 R+0
1996 D+2
1992 R+1
1988 D+11
1984 D+7

There ain't gonna be a significant third party candidacy this year.  While I don't expect Wisconsin to be D+8 this year, neither do I expect it be R+anything.  D+2 to D+4 is what I expect.  Wisconsin is not likely to provide Romney with his 270th EV.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Wisconsin is only in play because of Walker's success.

Did everyone get amnesia about how close Wisconsin was in 2000 and 2004?  Wisconsin is very much in play.  2008 was an anomaly

2000 was close only because of Nader. 1992 and 1996 are also problematic comparison years because of Perot.

Wisconsin margin compared to national margin.
2008 D+8
2004 D+3
2000 R+0
1996 D+2
1992 R+1
1988 D+11
1984 D+7

There ain't gonna be a significant third party candidacy this year.  While I don't expect Wisconsin to be D+8 this year, neither do I expect it be R+anything.  D+2 to D+4 is what I expect.  Wisconsin is not likely to provide Romney with his 270th EV.

So republicans winning an election here every 60 days for the last year is irrelevant then? 

No, that's why I expect a 4 to 6 point swing towards the Republicans in Wisconsin above and beyond any national swing.  But unless Walker replaces Romney as the GOP presidential nominee, it ain't gonna be more than that.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Something like ~20% of committed Obama supporters backed Walker and were anti-recall.

No.  The flawed exit poll might say that, which is flawed.  Most probably didn't "back" Walker, but simply didn't vote.  You might be talking 1 to 2 percentage points for Walker, which is what he improved from 2010. 

Wisconsin is only in play because of Walker's success.

Did everyone get amnesia about how close Wisconsin was in 2000 and 2004?  Wisconsin is very much in play.  2008 was an anomaly

2000 was close only because of Nader. 1992 and 1996 are also problematic comparison years because of Perot.
Wisconsin margin compared to national margin.
2008 D+8
2004 D+3
2000 R+0
1996 D+2
1992 R+1
1988 D+11
1984 D+7
There ain't gonna be a significant third party candidacy this year.  While I don't expect Wisconsin to be D+8 this year, neither do I expect it be R+anything.  D+2 to D+4 is what I expect.  Wisconsin is not likely to provide Romney with his 270th EV.

So republicans winning an election here every 60 days for the last year is irrelevant then? 

No, that's why I expect a 4 to 6 point swing towards the Republicans in Wisconsin above and beyond any national swing.  But unless Walker replaces Romney as the GOP presidential nominee, it ain't gonna be more than that.

So, Republicans won the only open state wide race in 2006
VanHollen  2006  AG       R + 0.41
Doyle         2006 Gov      D + 7.39
Kohl unopposed Sen      D + 37.83

Walker      2010  Gov      R + 5.77
Johnson    2010  Sen      R + 4.8
VanHollen 2010  AG        R + 15.6

Prosser     2011 S.C.     NP + 0.47
*I include this Non partisan race because it was hyper partisan. 

Walker      2012  Gov      R + 6.8
(polling Thompson Sen =R + 10 minimum)

So, republicans have won every statewide race since 2010 (5of5), will add another US senator in November (6of6), and if you want to go back to 2006 they still won an open race (7of9).  How you translate that to D+1, I don't understand.  Looks more R+2 to me.  The prospect of Tommy on the ballot at the same time as the Presidential election for the first time ever, is bringing a smile to my face.  Hard to see Romney losing if Thompson wins by 10+.         

You're comparing apples and oranges.  First off, statewide and national races often have a disconnect.  Second, my figure of D+2 to D+4 is not a statement that Obama will win Wisconsin by 2 to 4 percentage points.  I'm saying I expect him to do 2 to 4 points better in Wisconsin than he does nationally.  If Romney wins nationally by 6 points then I expect Romney to win Wisconsin by 2 to 4 points.  If Obama wins nationally by 6 points, then I expect Obama to win Wisconsin by 8 to 10 points.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

That's not how PVI works. You can't use it that way.

Wisconsin had a big trend to the Obama in 2008. I guess the issue now is whether it is in snapback country.

No, the issue is how big the snapback will be.