If, as in 00 and 04, this election comes down to one state...

[Indy Prez]

Cast your vote for each of them if you think they will all be of equal importance come the fall (pussy).

[politicus]

Voted Virginia as the most likely. Think Romney will win Florida and Ohio and then Virginia could very well be the decisive state (But obviously he would need more swing states).
I cant really imagine Romney winning, if Obama keeps Viginia.

You should have given Colorado as an option as well.

[You kip if you want to...]

Virginia or Colorado, but Colorado seems like it'll be leaning to the President. It's gone through a weird transformation politically, just look at 2010...

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Ohio, Virginia, or Colorado.

[politicus]

Ohio, Virginia, or Colorado.

Playing safe

[TomC]

Ohio

[WalterMitty]

virginia.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Colorado. Romney I think will be able to carry Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. It's the final state he needs that will be close, and I think that state is CO.

[Donerail]

If it comes down to just one state, it will be Colorado.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Virginia

[pbrower2a]

Ohio and Virginia can both match the national average.

[muon2]

My signature tie has all but VA on the list to Romney, so I would have to vote VA as the one to flip in that direction to decide it for Romney. However, CO would be my vote in that direction if it were on the list.

From my tie point I think NV would be most likely back to Obama so that gets my other vote. I'd give NH some consideration if it were on the list, but it is earlier to report than NV so I'd still go with NV.

[The Mikado]

This is a weird question, because it basically comes down to "How many electoral votes will the election be decided by?"  Obviously, any race that could be swung by Virginia could be swung by Ohio, any election that could be swung by Ohio could be swung by Florida...

To me, the logical answer is a tie between VA and OH.  I just don't realistically see Romney winning unless he carries both of these, so Obama pulling out one or the other is the silver bullet he'll seek for the rest of the campaign.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I'd say VA

NV - Obama will win this if its close   257
IA    263
VA
CO & OH   262
FL - Romney will win this if its close   235

[muon2]

This is a weird question, because it basically comes down to "How many electoral votes will the election be decided by?"  Obviously, any race that could be swung by Virginia could be swung by Ohio, any election that could be swung by Ohio could be swung by Florida...

To me, the logical answer is a tie between VA and OH.  I just don't realistically see Romney winning unless he carries both of these, so Obama pulling out one or the other is the silver bullet he'll seek for the rest of the campaign.

I was looking at the question from a slightly different perspective. I imagined that like '00 or '04 there was a state counting late into the night (or month in 2000) that needed to be known to call the race. I could see a scenario where OH and VA split and both are called while there are enough other uncertain slower counting states outstanding.

[Maxwell]

Ohio and Virginia. Florida seems pretty likely Romney state.

[milhouse24]

Colorado. Romney I think will be able to carry Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. It's the final state he needs that will be close, and I think that state is CO.

Nevada and Colorado should go to Romney, but are surprisingly strong for Obama.  I would have expected the Mormons would be better at GOTV.  In theory, Romney should be stronger there. 

I actually think if Romney wins, he should be ahead in Virginia.  George Allen will probably win, so that will help Romney.  It will be close and there are a lot of liberal carpetbaggers in nova, but I think the states goes back to Red. 

I think Ohio will be close because Obama has some strong regional strength, and Romney is somewhat unknown and anti-Union.  But I also think Ohio should go to Romney in the end based on economic policies. 

Therefore if VA and Ohio go to Romney, then Nevada and Colorado are the swing states that will decide the election. 

[morgieb]

Colorado. Romney I think will be able to carry Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. It's the final state he needs that will be close, and I think that state is CO.

Nevada and Colorado should go to Romney, but are surprisingly strong for Obama.  I would have expected the Mormons would be better at GOTV.  In theory, Romney should be stronger there. 

I actually think if Romney wins, he should be ahead in Virginia.  George Allen will probably win, so that will help Romney.  It will be close and there are a lot of liberal carpetbaggers in nova, but I think the states goes back to Red. 

I think Ohio will be close because Obama has some strong regional strength, and Romney is somewhat unknown and anti-Union.  But I also think Ohio should go to Romney in the end based on economic policies. 

Therefore if VA and Ohio go to Romney, then Nevada and Colorado are the swing states that will decide the election. 

No they're not - Hispanic influnce >> Mormon influence.

[WhyteRain]

I voted Nevada, but would've voted Colorado if I could.

[modify:]  Since Florida is getting no votes (yet, at least), maybe you should replace it with Colorado?

[WhyteRain]

Virginia or Colorado, but Colorado seems like it'll be leaning to the President. It's gone through a weird transformation politically, just look at 2010...

California refugees cost the GOP three Senate seats in 2010 -- Nevada, Washington, and Colorado.  This is the cost of the California implosion -- the diaspora of deeply stupid people.

[WhyteRain]

Ohio and Virginia. Florida seems pretty likely Romney state.

I agree that Florida is going for Romney, but if he needs Ohio and Virginia to win then it won't be a close election.

[Donerail]

Ohio and Virginia. Florida seems pretty likely Romney state.

I agree that Florida is going for Romney, but if he needs Ohio and Virginia to win then it won't be a close election.

How so? Romney definitely OH and VA to win. Here's a plausible Romney path to victory:

And it doesn't work without FL, OH, or VA.

[WhyteRain]

Ohio and Virginia. Florida seems pretty likely Romney state.

I agree that Florida is going for Romney, but if he needs Ohio and Virginia to win then it won't be a close election.

How so? Romney definitely OH and VA to win. Here's a plausible Romney path to victory:

And it doesn't work without FL, OH, or VA.

Good point, well taken.  I just don't think any of those three will be as close as, say, NV, MN, or even ME and PA.

[Donerail]

Ohio and Virginia. Florida seems pretty likely Romney state.

I agree that Florida is going for Romney, but if he needs Ohio and Virginia to win then it won't be a close election.

How so? Romney definitely OH and VA to win. Here's a plausible Romney path to victory:

And it doesn't work without FL, OH, or VA.

Good point, well taken.  I just don't think any of those three will be as close as, say, NV, MN, or even ME and PA.

Assuming 1 state is decisive, Ohio would likely be as close for Romney as Nevada/Iowa is for Obama, while Minnesota/Pennsylvania would be about as close for Obama as Florida/Virginia is for Romney. As for Maine, Obama will win there with about the same margins (assuming that one state is decisive) as Romney gets in Arizona and North Carolina.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Ohio and Virginia. Florida seems pretty likely Romney state.

I agree that Florida is going for Romney, but if he needs Ohio and Virginia to win then it won't be a close election.

How so? Romney definitely OH and VA to win. Here's a plausible Romney path to victory:

And it doesn't work without FL, OH, or VA.

If Romney wins, I think this is how he'll do it.