The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread

[Del Tachi]

Where are you guys getting the religious data?

Try and guess this one which is a real city in Southern California:

Type: Suburban
Region: Southern California
Population: 48,527
Race: White (38%), Black (2.3%), Asian (17.8%), Hispanic (39.7%)
Median Household Income: $79,347

La Mirada?

[tpfkaw]

Where are you guys getting the religious data?

Was googling "town name religious demographics," but it turns out the website with that data was for the county, not the town.

[Del Tachi]

Here’s a fictional one:

DEMOGRAPHICS
Name: Midtown
Type: Small town
Region: Upper South/Appalachia/Rust Belt
Population: 16,523
Race: White (93%), Black (5%), Other (2%).  Hispanics represent 11% of the population.
Age distribution: Under 18 (20%), Ages 18 to 34 (14%), Ages 35 to 64 (50%), Over 65 (16%)
Percent of married couple households: 67.2%

ECONOMICS
Percent of population of “workable” age (16-64): 66%
Percent of workforce per economic sector:  Manufacturing and Mining (37%), Services-Health Care, Childcare, Education, and Government (29%), Services-Retail (20%), Services-Finance and Marketing (6%), Services-Hospitality and Benevolence (3%), Agriculture (3%), Other (2%)   
Unemployment rate (male, ages 18-64): 20.6%
Unemployment rate (female, ages 18-64): 12.4%
Percent unionized (all workers): 26.9%
Percent unionized (manufacturing only): 38.5%
Median household income: $27,606

RELIGION
Do You Believe in God?: 94% Yes
Percent claiming religious affiliation: 54%
Percent participating in religious services at least “twice monthly”: 32%
Largest religious groups (of those claiming affiliation): Catholic (61%), Evangelical Protestant (25%), Mainline Protestant (13%), Other (1%) 

EDUCATION
Students enrolled in city public schools: 2,314 (97.7%)
Students enrolled in private schools within city limits: 0 (0%)
Students homeschooled: 56 (2.2%)
Students otherwise educated: 16 (0.1%)
High School Graduation Rate: 73.4%
Size of most recent high school graduating class (2012): 143 students
University placement for most recent high school graduating class: 30.4%
Percent of adult population with college degree of any kind (Associates, Bachelor’s, Master’s, Doctoral) : 22%
High School Mascot: Midtown Miners   

LOCAL POLITICS
County Seat? : Yes
Government type: Mayor-Council (weak mayor)
Mayor: Democrat
State House seat: Democrat
State Senate seat: Democrat
Public perception of local government: Locals see their local government as a method by which their town’s social “elite”--in this case representing well-connected individuals whose families have lived in the area for generations--are able to maintain control over their city’s social institutions.  Voter participation and civic engagement are dangerously low and very seldom do incumbents lose reelection.   

[Stranger in a strange land]

^sounds like a mining town with a Democratic Union Machine, the type that would have been reliably Democratic prior to 2000, but less so in recent years. Probably votes around 55-45 Romney, with low turnout.

[morgieb]

Not a real place:

Type: Large town
Region: North-East/New England
Population: 114,634
Race: White (91%), Black (3%), Asian (1%), Other (5%). Hispanics represent 9.2% of the population.
Median Household Income: $40,774
Percentage of married couple households: 62%
Unemployment: 12%
Percentage of working age working: 70.4%
Percent unionized: 19%
Percent claiming religious affiliation: 55%
Percent believing in God: 91%
Largest religious groups (of those claiming affiliation): Catholic (59.6%), Evangelical Protestant (9.4%), Mainline Protestant (27.6%), Jewish (1.3%), Other (2.1%)
Percent of adult population with college degree of any kind (Associates, Bachelor’s, Master’s, Doctoral): 43%
Mayor: Independent (former Republican)
State House seat: Republican
State Senate seat: Democrat

[Stranger in a strange land]

Not a real place:

Type: Large town
Region: North-East/New England
Population: 114,634
Race: White (91%), Black (3%), Asian (1%), Other (5%). Hispanics represent 9.2% of the population.
Median Household Income: $40,774
Percentage of married couple households: 62%
Unemployment: 12%
Percentage of working age working: 70.4%
Percent unionized: 19%
Percent claiming religious affiliation: 55%
Percent believing in God: 91%
Largest religious groups (of those claiming affiliation): Catholic (59.6%), Evangelical Protestant (9.4%), Mainline Protestant (27.6%), Jewish (1.3%), Other (2.1%)
Percent of adult population with college degree of any kind (Associates, Bachelor’s, Master’s, Doctoral): 43%
Mayor: Independent (former Republican)
State House seat: Republican
State Senate seat: Democrat

Obama 55/Romney 43

[Sbane]

Where are you guys getting the religious data?

Try and guess this one which is a real city in Southern California:

Type: Suburban
Region: Southern California
Population: 48,527
Race: White (38%), Black (2.3%), Asian (17.8%), Hispanic (39.7%)
Median Household Income: $79,347

La Mirada?

Yup

[tpfkaw]

Another real place:

Type: Small city
Region: West
Population: 55,000
Race: White (71%), Hispanic (21%), Asian (2%), American Indian (2%), Black (2%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $52,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 37%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (57%), Evangelical Protestant (18%), Mainline Protestant (13%), Others (11%, mainly Mormon) - actually is for the location in question this time!
Percent of married couple households: 46%

[morgieb]

60-40 Romney, most likely. Sounds like some place in Colorado, probably a more conservative one.

[traininthedistance]

Another real place:

Type: Small city
Region: West
Population: 55,000
Race: White (71%), Hispanic (21%), Asian (2%), American Indian (2%), Black (2%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $52,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 37%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (57%), Evangelical Protestant (18%), Mainline Protestant (13%), Others (11%, mainly Mormon) - actually is for the location in question this time!
Percent of married couple households: 46%

If it wasn't for the relatively high Mormon population, I'd guess you're trying to trick us into saying it's a Republican town when in fact it's super-D Santa Fe.  But there can't be that many Mormons in Santa Fe... can there?

edit:  Never mind, I found the city you're referring to.  It is pretty Republican most of the time, but Obama barely won it in 2008.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Another hypothetical place.

Type: Suburb
Region: West
Population: 52,000
Race: White (84%), Hispanic (11%), Asian (3%), Black (1%), Other (1%)
Median household income: $78,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 41%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (52%), Evangelical Protestant (23%), Mainline Protestant (16%) , Others (9%)
Percent of married couple households: 61%
Educational levels of adults: High school graduate (92%), College graduate (56%), Graduate degrees (18%)
 
 

[Sbane]

The west is hard to tell. If the place PR posted was in Socal (which it probably isn't due to the low Hispanic population) it would be Republican. In the Bay Area it would be Democrat. It's probably up in the northwest though and probably votes Republican but voted for Obama. Correct?

Also where are you getting religious data for cities?

[Napoleon]

60-40 Romney, most likely. Sounds like some place in Colorado, probably a more conservative one.

Its Carson City, I'm pretty sure. 55% Romney.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The west is hard to tell. If the place PR posted was in Socal (which it probably isn't due to the low Hispanic population) it would be Republican. In the Bay Area it would be Democrat. It's probably up in the northwest though and probably votes Republican but voted for Obama. Correct?

Also where are you getting religious data for cities?

I was actually thinking of certain suburbs of Denver in Colorado when I posted that.

[Sbane]

That makes sense too. Also didn't notice you said it was hypothetical.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

In this thread, describe a hypothetical place in the US using demographic data, and have other posters guess how it would vote.

Type: Suburban
Region: Midwest
Population: 105,000
Race: White (75%), Latino (11%), Black (10%), Asian (2%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $63,441
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 47%
Religion: Catholic (56%), Mainline Protestant (23%), Evangelical Protestant (14%), Other (7%)
Percentage of married couple households: 72%

Midwest and suburban huh?  That alone gives the answer away... Democrat.

[BlueDog Bumble]

Type: Rural
Region: West
Population: 34,000
Race: White (88%) Latino (7%) Black (2%) (Asian 2%) Other (1%)
Median household income: $52,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 54%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (38%), Evangelical Protestant (27%), Mainline Protestant (21%) , Mormon (7%) Jewish (1%) Other (6%)
Percent of married couple households: 66%
Educational levels of adults: High school graduate (90%), College graduate (49%), Graduate degrees (14%)

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Type: Rural
Region: West
Population: 34,000
Race: White (88%) Latino (7%) Black (2%) (Asian 2%) Other (1%)
Median household income: $52,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 54%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (38%), Evangelical Protestant (27%), Mainline Protestant (21%) , Mormon (7%) Jewish (1%) Other (6%)
Percent of married couple households: 66%
Educational levels of adults: High school graduate (90%), College graduate (49%), Graduate degrees (14%)

Republican.

[frihetsivrare]

Type: Small city
Region: Great Plains
Population: 121,000
Race: White (46%) Latino (22%) Oriental (11%) Black (11%) Indian (4%) First Nation (3%) Other (3%)
Median household income: $42,000 with low cost of living
Religious population: 67%
Religion: Protestant (37%) Catholic (24%) Mormon (21%) Jewish (9%) Hindu (4%) Animist (4%) Other (1%)
Percent of adults married: 70%
Percent of total population under 18: 28%
Education level: High school (83%), Bachelor's (38%), Master's and above (6%)

The community is also heavily self-reliant and distrusts outside influence.

[Sbane]

A 4% Hindu city on the Great Plains?

[frihetsivrare]

A 4% Hindu city on the Great Plains?

Yes, I tried to make up very unrealistic demographics. 

[muon2]

Type: Small city
Region: Great Plains
Population: 121,000
Race: White (46%) Latino (22%) Oriental (11%) Black (11%) Indian (4%) First Nation (3%) Other (3%)
Median household income: $42,000 with low cost of living
Religious population: 67%
Religion: Protestant (37%) Catholic (24%) Mormon (21%) Jewish (9%) Hindu (4%) Animist (4%) Other (1%)
Percent of adults married: 70%
Percent of total population under 18: 28%
Education level: High school (83%), Bachelor's (38%), Master's and above (6%)

The community is also heavily self-reliant and distrusts outside influence.

A 4% Hindu city on the Great Plains?

Yes, I tried to make up very unrealistic demographics. 

The 4% Hindu is not as strange as other aspects of the hypothetical. There are a number of pockets of Indian population in the Midwest, though it's more common in bug suburbs than in isolated small cities. For me the stranger aspect is the large mix of minority groups. Except for university towns that's fairly rare. Here's a real set of demographics from a real Midwest city that somewhat matches your population, income, and educational levels, and isn't a suburb.

Population 100-150K
Race: White (60%) Latino (5%) Asian (5%) Black (27%) Other/Multiracial (3%)
Median Household Income $46K
Education level age over 25: High School (88%), Bachelor's (32%)