Italy 2013: The official thread

[palandio]

A bit late, but here is mine:

Center-left 34%
-PD 29%
-SEL 3.5%
-Others (CD, PSI, SVP, Megafono) 1.5%

Center-right 27%
-PdL 18%
-Lega 4%
-Fratelli 2.5%
-Destra 1%
-Others 1.5%

M5* 22.3%

Center 9.7%
-Civica Monti 6.5%
-UdC 2.5%
-FLI 0.7%

Riv. Civ. 4%
FID 1.5%
Others 1.5%

[SPQR]

Monti below 10% and thus not getting any deputies in the Lower Chamber?
It would be a huge surprise.

[palandio]

If Monti's Coalition fell below the 10% threshold, its three lists would be treated like single parties. Hence the new threshold would be 4% (for each party) and the Monti-Montezemolo list would still make it into the Chamber, while Casini and Fini would probably remain out.

The same holds for Berlusconi's coalition if it fell under 20% in the Tuscany and Emilia Senate elections: The new threshold would be 8% for each single party of the coalition and hence PdL would still get some seats, the votes for the other lists of the coalition would be wasted.

[SPQR]

If Monti's Coalition fell below the 10% threshold, its three lists would be treated like single parties. Hence the new threshold would be 4% (for each party) and the Monti-Montezemolo list would still make it into the Chamber, while Casini and Fini would probably remain out.

The same holds for Berlusconi's coalition if it fell under 20% in the Tuscany and Emilia Senate elections: The new threshold would be 8% for each single party of the coalition and hence PdL would still get some seats, the votes for the other lists of the coalition would be wasted.

Huh,didn't know that.
I thought that if a coalition did not pass 10%,then all the parties within the coalition would authomatically get no deputies.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is down at the 1st measurement at 12:00 local time:

14.8% vs. 16.5% in the 2008 elections

http://elezioni.interno.it/camera/votanti/20130224/Cvotanti.htm

So, we are heading towards 72-78% turnout.

[SPQR]

Historically,high turnout is good for Berlusconi.

[palandio]

One further prediction:
I think that the Center-Right will probably not win in Sicily. They have lost most of the protest vote and many of the people that really count on the regional level have switched allegiance to where the power is now, after the last regional elections.

Turnout will likely be lower than in 2008, which hurts Berlusconi, but on the other hand the 12:00 number are probably depressed by bad weather esp. in the North.
Additionally Grillo will actually win some voters that stayed home in 2008.
(By the way I would not vote Grillo, the 22.3% I gave to him are not wishful thinking.)

[Keystone Phil]

Prediction


Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 29%
M5S - 20%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Others - 3%


I do believe, however, that the center-right will narrowly win the Senate. As stated earlier, I think turnout will be 75%.

Ah,this is fun,since it is mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate.

I haven't seen that mentioned anywhere. No where at all. Not here, not anywhere in the press. So please try to explain without being a condescending prick (like you have been this entire time). Many thanks.

[Diouf]

Prediction


Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 29%
M5S - 20%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Others - 3%


I do believe, however, that the center-right will narrowly win the Senate. As stated earlier, I think turnout will be 75%.

Ah,this is fun,since it is mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate.

I haven't seen that mentioned anywhere. No where at all. Not here, not anywhere in the press. So please try to explain without being a condescending prick (like you have been this entire time). Many thanks.

It's of course not mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate, but it will take an enormous swing when looking at the polling. The Centre-right will have to win regions like Lazio, Sardinia, Liguria and Marche. The last polls in those regions showed a lead for the centre-left on 9.5, 10, 10, and 12 % respectively. That is quite a lot of ground to make up.

[Andrea]

Turnout at 12:00
14.94%   (16.51% in 2008)

By area:

Piedmont 1 (Turin): 15.4%
Piedmont II (the rest of the region) 15.61%
Lombardy 1 (Milan and Monza): 17.76%
Lombardy II (North part of the region): 17.79%
Lombardy III (southern part): 17.27%
Trentino Alto Adigo: 16.46%
Veneto I: 18.71%
Veneto II: 18.22%
Friuli Veneza Giulia: 17.98%
Liguria: 19.2%
Emilia Romaga: 20.41%
Valle d'Aosta: 17.67%
Tuscany: 17.17%
Umbria: 15.49%
Marche: 15.63%
Lazio I (Rome): 15.58%
Lazio II (the rest): 13.22%
Abruzzo: 12.48%
Molise: 12.33%
Campania I (Naples): 10.8%
Campania II (the rest): 10.39%
Apulia: 11.62%
Basilicata: 9.71%
Calabria: 8.07%
Sicily I: 9.26%
Sicily II: 10.61%
Sardinia: 12.49%

Highest provincial score: Ferrara (22.64%)
Lowerst: Reggio Calabria (6.45%)

.........

I went to vote at 10 AM ("village" north of Monza). Not many people around polling stations but not empty either. It was already snowing.
I took my grandmother to vote at 11:30 (village west of Milan). It wasn't snowing yet there. Lots of people around. Queues. There was barely room in the hallways. But the mass just finished and the church was 5 minutes by walk away from polling station. Now it's snowing there too, so I guess it can slow down now.

[Keystone Phil]

It's of course not mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate, but it will take an enormous swing when looking at the polling. The Centre-right will have to win regions like Lazio, Sardinia, Liguria and Marche. The last polls in those regions showed a lead for the centre-left on 9.5, 10, 10, and 12 % respectively. That is quite a lot of ground to make up.

That's what I figured (though I didn't know they had to win that many challenging areas). Thanks for informing me and respectfully making the point as opposed to someone that comes in here, bitches the entire time at people he sees as the "enemy" (a lot like Silvio) then wants to lecture about the tone of the thread.

[Keystone Phil]

Shirtless feminist activists protested Berlusconi at his polling place. I'm not sure he minded though. 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Shirtless feminist activists protested Berlusconi at his polling place. I'm not sure he minded though. 

Depends on whether they were Moroccan.

[Keystone Phil]

Antonio should post the link Tender shared - http://elezioni.interno.it/camera/votanti/20130224/Cvotanti.htm - in the first post if we aren't going to have a results thread. The ministry did a great job: all the information you need and a very easy-to-navigate layout.

[Zuza]

Maybe it's too late, but I try to predict results too:
Bersani - 34.3%
   PD - 30.0%
   SEL - 3.4%
   DC - 0.5%
   SVP - 0.4%
Berlusconi - 29.3%
   PdL - 19.5%
   LN - 5.2%
   LD - 1.7%
   FdI - 1.6%
   Others - 1.3%
M5S - 18.9%
Monti - 10.3%
   SC - 6.9%
   UdC - 2.7%
   FLI - 0.7%
RC - 3.4%
FID - 2.4%
AGL - 0.5%
Others - 0.9%

[SPQR]

Prediction


Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 29%
M5S - 20%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Others - 3%


I do believe, however, that the center-right will narrowly win the Senate. As stated earlier, I think turnout will be 75%.

Ah,this is fun,since it is mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate.

I haven't seen that mentioned anywhere. No where at all. Not here, not anywhere in the press. So please try to explain without being a condescending prick (like you have been this entire time). Many thanks.

To get a majority in the Senate,he has to win Lazio,Puglia,Piemonte,Calabria,Friuli..other than the known battlegrounds of Sicilia,Lombardia,Campania and even Veneto.
So yeah,like Piepoli said in an interview to a Swiss newspaper,it is mathematically impossible for the center-right to win a majority.

Unless of course there is a 15-20% swing today and tomorrow,who knows.

[Vosem]

Berlusconi is seventy-six already, Vosem.

Still.

[RogueBeaver]

What are the odds of a centre-right upset in the Chamber of Deputies? I'd say no more than 10-15% myself, but curious as to what others think.

[Andrea]

Let's join the prediction game...

Bersani 34% (PD 30% SEL 3%)
Berlusconi 28% (PDL 20% Lega 4% I don't know have a clue on which will come out on top between Storaca and Meloni)
Grillo 20%
Monti 11% (Monti 6% UDC 4% Fini 1.something%)
Ingroia 3.something%

[Keystone Phil]

Maybe turnout won't be down that much. The 19:00 numbers are in: in 2008, they were at 45.62% at this time. Now, it's 44%.

[Tender Branson]

Maybe turnout won't be down that much. The 19:00 numbers are in: in 2008, they were at 45.62% at this time. Now, it's 44%.

Of course only a small fraction of towns have reported so far. Reporting just started 6 minutes ago.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, I just noticed that. I thought it was like an exit poll and an estimate was dumped all at once.

What I don't understand (even though it's a minor difference): they had turnout listed at 45.62% at this point in 2008. Now it's down to 45.6%. The 2008 numbers couldn't suddenly change. Typo, perhaps?

[Tender Branson]

Marche, Molise and Turin actually have higher turnout compared with 2008, with the towns already reporting.

[Tender Branson]

What I don't understand (even though it's a minor difference): they had turnout listed at 45.62% at this point in 2008. Now it's down to 45.6%. The 2008 numbers couldn't suddenly change. Typo, perhaps?

It's not a typo, it's a rolling update. They are using 2008 figures compared with the towns already counted. The more towns are counted, the 2008 figures are updated as well.

For example if there are 200 out of 400 towns counted in 1 region with 50% turnout and then another 50 towns are added with 55% turnout from 2008, the overall updated 2008 turnout figure also increases.

[Keystone Phil]

I just don't understand why they wouldn't have each town's/the national turnout percent at this point in 2008 already pumped in and then just update the current percent.