Italy 2013: The official thread

[SPQR]

I won't lighten the hell up because these elections actually have an impact on the country I LIVE in,and not only one I am interested in.

Anyhow,in 2006 polls stopped before Berlusconi declared on TV that he would remove the ICI tax.
In 2008,most of the polls showed a lead far above 2 points.

Now,polls had been showing Berlusconi steady at 18-19% before the "2 weeks censorship break",so there was no momentum whatsoever,and in these 2 weeks nothing has happened that could have helped him. At the most,I am prepared to see Grillo perform better than expected,unfortunately.

[Keystone Phil]

Ok, so I'm sure you flipped out when PD had your candidates as super heroes during the primary since this is super serious business.   And, of course, I guess I should have flipped out over every little joke during the U.S. Presidential election since, you know, I live here and not "just" interested in the country.

Exit polls right after voting ended still showed Prodi up by five so the black out rule isn't relevant. And according to one poster, the actual exits only showed Berlusconi only up two. I think it's fair to say that he usually under polls.

[MaxQue]

Ok, so I'm sure you flipped out when PD had your candidates as super heroes during the primary since this is super serious business.   And, of course, I guess I should have flipped out over every little joke during the U.S. Presidential election since, you know, I live here and not "just" interested in the country.

Exit polls right after voting ended still showed Prodi up by five so the black out rule isn't relevant. And according to one poster, the actual exits only showed Berlusconi only up two. I think it's fair to say that he usually under polls.

But if the usual voter which lies to pollsters is a protest voter which finally decide to vote for Berlusconi, what is saying us than they won't vote for Grillo, this time?

[Keystone Phil]

Very fair point but I think the general thought that Grillo is literally a joke might prevent a lot of people from "pulling the trigger." I do, however, think he will be a strong third. Monti is going to be embarrassed.

[Franknburger]

I won't lighten the hell up because these elections actually have an impact on the country I LIVE in,and not only one I am interested in.

Anyhow,in 2006 polls stopped before Berlusconi declared on TV that he would remove the ICI tax.
In 2008,most of the polls showed a lead far above 2 points.

Now,polls had been showing Berlusconi steady at 18-19% before the "2 weeks censorship break",so there was no momentum whatsoever,and in these 2 weeks nothing has happened that could have helped him. At the most,I am prepared to see Grillo perform better than expected,unfortunately.

I fully understand you. And I would actually be glad if some people could stop to clutter up this thread with irrelevant chater and "fun stories".

Over the last days, several questions have been asked on how certain events (corruption scandals, flooding, perceived 'external intervention', etc.) might influence the vote. I remain highly interested in the Italian posters' respective opinion, as well as any other "field reports".

[Keystone Phil]

There have been a few stories about Football. A few. Like it or not, it's been discussed as a factor by serious people. I don't know what else here classifies as a "fun story." The people that most consistently post here like me and Antonio post plenty of other news and questions.

[Franknburger]

Last day of campaigning. It's been fun. Hope there are some entertaining stories today.

I wasn't referring to football alone (i actually joked about that as well). I just think its time all of us reallise that this election is a really important one, and start discussing accordingly.

[Tender Branson]

Anyone else want to try a party prediction ?

[Tender Branson]

My turnout estimate is missing: 77% (-3)

[MaxQue]

Well, about flooding, what there is to add?

Sure, flooded people don't got voting (Canada has two examples of that, in 1997 in the Red River Valley and in 2011 in the Richelieu Valley). But it shouldn't have an effect on the House except if it's very, very tight (less than 0.01%). For Senate, the effect could be bigger if Sicily is close, but I don't believe it will be.

And, sure, the left is the one favorised by that flooding (less right-wingers voting).

[Franknburger]

Did polls (the older ones, or the 'leaked' ones) give any indication on the gender gap? I would imagine that, as in most industrialised countries, the female vote is traditionally more left-leaning (and 'greener') than the male vote, and Berlusconi's scandals may have  widened the gap.

What about Grillo supporters? "Pirate" pattern, i.e. predominantly young, urban males (which would make a 'protest vote' swing from Berlusconi to Grillo plausible), or also reasonably strong female support?

Gender mix of "undecideds"? In the 2008 and 2012 US elections, they were primarily lower-class, less educated females (the supermarket cashier / waitress / nurse demographics), and went heavily for Obama. Can a similar pattern be expected for Italy (neither Bersani nor Monti appear to be the type of politician that has particular appeal to such women) ?

[You kip if you want to...]

This sort've reminds me of France last year. The gap closing to an eye-watering level, but the favourite eventually just getting over the line.

[Keystone Phil]

Last day of campaigning. It's been fun. Hope there are some entertaining stories today.

I wasn't referring to football alone (i actually joked about that as well). I just think its time all of us reallise that this election is a really important one, and start discussing accordingly.

It's been an exciting watch. We're political nerds. You should know what "fun" means in this context. Some of you need to relax.

And, again, important things have been discussed throughout this thread.

Anyway, I'll probably do a party result prediction later today. I will say that I expect turnout to be down to 75%. Remarkable that that's considered "low" for a national election.

[Andrea]

Anyhow,in 2006 polls stopped before Berlusconi declared on TV that he would remove the ICI tax.In 2008,most of the polls showed a lead far above 2 points.

IIRC the exit poll in 2006 had Prodi winning 52 to 48%.

However, I can't recall the race being down to 2% in 2008. IIRC the impression at the time was always that Berlusconi was comfortably in the lead.


Poor weather expected tommorrow in many areas. It can impact turnout.
Maybe those claiming "I don't know. It's really hard this time. I'm undecided" (which usually means they will vote Berlusconi) won't show up if they have to overcome some snowballs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As far as I'm concerned, I can't emphasize enough how much this campaign has disappointed me. Not so much because of Berlusconi's shenanigans, because Monti proved to be a total idiot,  because Bersani's campaign was as dull as you can possibly imagine, or because the useless lefty outfit is going to spoil tons of votes. Because of all of this, but mainly because, after all the crazy, unthinkable stuff that happened in the past 2 years, scandal and drama of all sorts, this all ends up being the exact same campaign as usual. This is basically 2006 and 2008 all over again, except with a couple more second-class players who'll do nothing but spoil the results. The campaign was the usual sh*tfest full of useless bickering over the scandal-of-the-day or the insane-idea-of-the-day. I know I should never have expected more in the first place, but see, for a few months I actually thought this was really the beginning of the Third Republic. I thought that voters had clearly decided they wanted to put an end to the way politics had been done in the past 20 years. But ultimately all we have seen in this campaign is the usual stuff (apart from Grillo, but that's not much better). Whatever the result is, this is already a massive failure for Italy.

[Franknburger]

As far as I'm concerned, I can't emphasize enough how much this campaign has disappointed me. Not so much because of Berlusconi's shenanigans, because Monti proved to be a total idiot,  because Bersani's campaign was as dull as you can possibly imagine, or because the useless lefty outfit is going to spoil tons of votes. Because of all of this, but mainly because, after all the crazy, unthinkable stuff that happened in the past 2 years, scandal and drama of all sorts, this all ends up being the exact same campaign as usual. This is basically 2006 and 2008 all over again, except with a couple more second-class players who'll do nothing but spoil the results. The campaign was the usual sh*tfest full of useless bickering over the scandal-of-the-day or the insane-idea-of-the-day. I know I should never have expected more in the first place, but see, for a few months I actually thought this was really the beginning of the Third Republic. I thought that voters had clearly decided they wanted to put an end to the way politics had been done in the past 20 years. But ultimately all we have seen in this campaign is the usual stuff (apart from Grillo, but that's not much better). Whatever the result is, this is already a massive failure for Italy.

I don't know if this will be any condolence to you, but I am looking forward to a pretty similar experience in the German elections this autumn. Austria doen't look much better, and my guess is that the French might share your feeling as well.

Welcome to the European mainstream, Italy !

[Antonio the Sixth]

As far as I'm concerned, I can't emphasize enough how much this campaign has disappointed me. Not so much because of Berlusconi's shenanigans, because Monti proved to be a total idiot,  because Bersani's campaign was as dull as you can possibly imagine, or because the useless lefty outfit is going to spoil tons of votes. Because of all of this, but mainly because, after all the crazy, unthinkable stuff that happened in the past 2 years, scandal and drama of all sorts, this all ends up being the exact same campaign as usual. This is basically 2006 and 2008 all over again, except with a couple more second-class players who'll do nothing but spoil the results. The campaign was the usual sh*tfest full of useless bickering over the scandal-of-the-day or the insane-idea-of-the-day. I know I should never have expected more in the first place, but see, for a few months I actually thought this was really the beginning of the Third Republic. I thought that voters had clearly decided they wanted to put an end to the way politics had been done in the past 20 years. But ultimately all we have seen in this campaign is the usual stuff (apart from Grillo, but that's not much better). Whatever the result is, this is already a massive failure for Italy.

I don't know if this will be any condolence to you, but I am looking forward to a pretty similar experience in the German elections this autumn. Austria doen't look much better, and my guess is that the French might share your feeling as well.

Welcome to the European mainstream, Italy !

Italy is different though, because we were starting from much lower. Becoming like France or Germany politically would already be a MASSIVE improvement.

[Keystone Phil]

Prediction


Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 29%
M5S - 20%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Others - 3%


I do believe, however, that the center-right will narrowly win the Senate. As stated earlier, I think turnout will be 75%.

[RogueBeaver]

My prediction: IBC wins by 5-6 in the Chamber, forced into a formal Senate coalition with Monti.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right, I guess I have to make a try at predicting what happens on Monday. Don't expect me to be objective, though. Considering the circumstances, it's beyond my abilities.

Left: 34% (PD 29%, SEL 4%, others 1%)
Right: 27% (PdL 18%, Lega 4%, LD 1.5%, FdI 1.5%, others 2%)
M5S: 21%
Monti: 12% (Monti 8%, UDC 3%, FLI 1%)
RC: 3%
FiD: 1%
Others: 2%

In the Senate, I'd say left wins Lazio and Campania, Lombardia is a tossup and the right wins Sicilia.

[Vosem]

Some predictions, in no particular order:

• Bersani will place first.
• It will be closer than predicted; someone -- either the right or Grillo -- will place decisively second.
• Berlusconi and Grillo will continue to influence Italian politics for some time yet. Bersani will only last a couple of years before leaving and either being forgotten or remembered very unfavorably by everyone.
• The Senate will be a complete cluster. Nobody will exercise any real control.
• Not at this election, but at some point in the future, Berlusconi will be Prime Minister again.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Berlusconi is seventy-six already, Vosem.

[SPQR]

Prediction


Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 29%
M5S - 20%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Others - 3%


I do believe, however, that the center-right will narrowly win the Senate. As stated earlier, I think turnout will be 75%.

Ah,this is fun,since it is mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate.

[SPQR]

Last day of campaigning. It's been fun. Hope there are some entertaining stories today.

I wasn't referring to football alone (i actually joked about that as well). I just think its time all of us reallise that this election is a really important one, and start discussing accordingly.

This.

Anyway,floodings are not that severe in Sicily. If they do have an impact,it will be against Berlusconi,since Catania's area is (was) a PdL stronghold.

As for the gender gap,I honestly don't know. My perception is that here it is much smaller than in the US or elsewhere.

Exit polls in 2008: no exit poll showed a 2% lead; I remember the first exit poll said that Berlusconi's lead was somewhere within 2% and 5-6%,and they did not give exact numbers because of 2006's debacle. And again,now it is much different from 2006 or 2008,Berlusconi has no momentum,and there are many alternatives from the two main coalitions.

[SPQR]

My predictions:

Italia Bene Comune : 35%
PD 30%
SeL 4%
Centro Democratico + PSI 1%

Berlusconi: 27%
PdL 19%
Lega Nord 4%
Fratelli d'Italia 2%
La Destra 1%
Others 1%

M5S 21%

Monti: 12%
Scelta Civica 8%
UdC 3%
FLI 1%

Rivoluzione Civile 3%
Fare per Fermare il Declino 1%
Others 1%