Italy 2013: The official thread

[Keystone Phil]

It's likely that centrist parties (I take it UdC is included) won't join either coalition? I can understand M5S (I still think they'll have a significant drop in support) but I figured the others would have to align with one of the two to form a government.

[Keystone Phil]

...or is the system where the party with a plurality of the vote gets ~54% of the seats going to remain in place?

[SPQR]

...or is the system where the party with a plurality of the vote gets ~54% of the seats going to remain in place?

This.

Berlusconi's only allies will be La Destra (The Right) and, as usual, the Lega Nord (Northern League).

[Keystone Phil]

Berlusconi is apparently at risk of being expelled from the EPP.

Meanwhile, it looks like PD is having a primary for MPs on December 29th and 30th.

[Andrea]

Latest poll

ISPO (fieldwork: 10 December)

PD 33.1%
5 Stelle 18.2%
PdL 16.3%
Lega 5.9%
SEL 5.4%
UDC 5.2%
Di Pietro 3.5%
Montezemolo 2.1%
La Destra 2%
Commies 1.9%
Fini 1.5%
Pannella-Bonino 1%


49% were don't know/won't vote

[Keystone Phil]

Was Berlusconi drunk earlier today? He said he'd back Monti if he ran as the candidate for the center-right.

And apparently LN isn't going to run with PdL with Berlusconi as the leader. Maroni said Silvio stepping aside would guarantee it though.

[RogueBeaver]

Was Berlusconi drunk earlier today? He said he'd back Monti if he ran as the candidate for the center-right.

And apparently LN isn't going to run with PdL with Berlusconi as the leader. Maroni said Silvio stepping aside would guarantee it though.

So he's screwed, no pun intended. Without LN no way he surpasses PD unless M5S almost completely collapses (and I'm sure they all wouldn't go PdL even if M5S vanished tomorrow) and gets a chunk of undecideds. Though in his miracle scenario I'm fairly sure that LN would crawl back and at least give him confidence.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Was Berlusconi drunk earlier today? He said he'd back Monti if he ran as the candidate for the center-right.

WHAT?!? Wait a minute... Eureka! Now I understand!

He's trying to look insane so that he's declared legally irresponsible, so that he can avoid prosecution for his trials! Everything makes sense then.


Seriously though, this is utterly pathetic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Movimento 5 Stelle is also in turmoil however. Grillo decided thinks of himself as the Dear Leader of the party and expelled 2 prominent members who had voiced criticism over his new leadership. Unsurprisingly, it turns out Italy's "new", "dynamic" and "vibrant" political movement is actually a little dictatorship ran by a madman who thinks he's the messiah.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unsurprisingly, it turns out Italy's "new", "dynamic" and "vibrant" political movement is actually a little dictatorship ran by a madman who thinks he's the messiah.

Ah, right. So he's going to win the election, then.

[minionofmidas]

Unsurprisingly, it turns out Italy's "new", "dynamic" and "vibrant" political movement is actually a little dictatorship ran by a madman who thinks he's the messiah.

Ah, right. So he's going to win the election, then.

Worse outcomes are possible.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, what's the deal with Grillo? He decided that two of the candidates weren't "true" party members or something?

[SPQR]

Grillo got mad because they went on TV and released interviews.
But the M5S is just a big bluff,with Grillo as the supreme leader and the other ones being common citizens whose only job is to adore him and never ever disobey.

Anyway,just to be clear,the M5S will not make ANY alliance with ANY party.

[Iannis]

...or is the system where the party with a plurality of the vote gets ~54% of the seats going to remain in place?

Yes, but for the Senate the same system is at regional level, so a coalition (or party) can win a region and have the majority of seats and lose in another region and have the minority, so the outcome in seats of the senate can be different from the Chamber of Deputies. That's because for the Constitution the Senate must represent regional equilibriums and the seat distribution can't depend from national outcome. With this system a coalition can have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies but not necessarily in the Senate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Italian Senate is a complete joke and should be abolished. That won't happen, obviously, because it would drive the Lega insane.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The Italian Senate is a complete joke and should be abolished. That won't happen, obviously, because it would drive the Lega insane.

Too be fair to the Senate though, the entire voting system (and the political system over-all) is a joke in Italy.

[SPQR]

There were talks of making the Senate a "Federal Senate",and thus have it work exclusively on regional issues,but then nothing happened.

[Keystone Phil]

That's because for the Constitution the Senate must represent regional equilibriums and the seat distribution can't depend from national outcome. With this system a coalition can have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies but not necessarily in the Senate.

But Senate seats are still distributed proportionally based on regional population, correct?

[Iannis]

That's because for the Constitution the Senate must represent regional equilibriums and the seat distribution can't depend from national outcome. With this system a coalition can have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies but not necessarily in the Senate.

But Senate seats are still distributed proportionally based on regional population, correct?

Yes

[Iannis]

The Italian Senate is a complete joke and should be abolished. That won't happen, obviously, because it would drive the Lega insane.

Too be fair to the Senate though, the entire voting system (and the political system over-all) is a joke in Italy.

For sure i wpuld be in favour of a proportional system like in Sweden, but compared to uninominal UK system, or also french one, italian one is a paradise of democracy

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unsurprisingly, it turns out Italy's "new", "dynamic" and "vibrant" political movement is actually a little dictatorship ran by a madman who thinks he's the messiah.

Ah, right. So he's going to win the election, then.

Worse outcomes are possible.

This is very true...

[Antonio the Sixth]

So apparently, EPP leaders had a rally today and they offered their public endorsement to Monti to lead a centre-right coalition. I still have high doubts that this could be feasible in Italy's political climate, but in any case this is a major failure for Berlusconi. He doesn't even seem to be so widely supported among his party.

Also, election day will be on Feb. 17, and regional elections in Lombardia and Lazio will also be held that day.

[Keystone Phil]

So apparently, EPP leaders had a rally today and they offered their public endorsement to Monti to lead a centre-right coalition. I still have high doubts that this could be feasible in Italy's political climate, but in any case this is a major failure for Berlusconi. He doesn't even seem to be so widely supported among his party.

Also, election day will be on Feb. 17, and regional elections in Lombardia and Lazio will also be held that day.

Thank God for February 17th for personal reasons. Those regional elections should be really tough though.

I didn't know this EPP thing was actually a rally; I thought a bunch of them just released statements bashing Silvio. This is even more embarrassing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So apparently, EPP leaders had a rally today and they offered their public endorsement to Monti to lead a centre-right coalition. I still have high doubts that this could be feasible in Italy's political climate, but in any case this is a major failure for Berlusconi. He doesn't even seem to be so widely supported among his party.

Also, election day will be on Feb. 17, and regional elections in Lombardia and Lazio will also be held that day.

Thank God for February 17th for personal reasons. Those regional elections should be really tough though.

I didn't know this EPP thing was actually a rally; I thought a bunch of them just released statements bashing Silvio. This is even more embarrassing.

From what I understand, they actually invited Monti and spent all the even praising him while shunning Berlusconi, who was also present. Epic fail doesn't even begin to describe it...

As for me, I'll be in SF by February, so this means my parents will have to cast the ballot for me. I'm really pissed off. Tell me guys, why couldn't you hold it in January instead?

[Keystone Phil]

Is it definitely February 17th? One of my friends (a PD activist) said it "may be" that date so that led me to believe it's still between then and February 24th. I also didn't see anything on the newspaper websites stating a definitive date.