Italy 2013: The official thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The lot of you'd better calm the fuck down or the thread gets fucking locked at fucking once. Diolch.

[Keystone Phil]

You're right, I shouldn't care about whatever bullsh*t you are posting. From now on, I'll learn the lesson and just ignore you (like everybody else is doing already, mind you). I guess my mistake was to understate your level of silliness. Sorry about that.

Yep, silence those (supposed) contrary opinions (like...you know...Berlusconi, right?) or just ignore them. Glad you're finally slightly getting over yourself and not dwelling on my personal opinions on this. 

You've had your panties in a bunch ever since it became obvious that PD has put up another massive zero. I know it's tough, buddy, but you'll grow up one day. Maybe by the time the next PdL government finishes.

[Keystone Phil]

Note: please do not post any "good news" about PdL/Berlusconi. If and when PdL wins the next election, posting about it is strictly forbidden. This is considered rooting for the "objectively evil" side.

[RogueBeaver]

Guys, please cut it out. I really don't want Sibboleth to lock the thread.

[RogueBeaver]

You can't reconcile the irreconcilable.

[RogueBeaver]

PD is girding for a Renzi-Barca duel. PD's annual conference is in 3 weeks, and the annual primary (leadership review?) in October. I think it'll take a Berlusconi or Grillo Camera (since I doubt anyone's winning the Senate right now) win to wake them up.

http://www.ilgiornale.it/news/interni/bersani-non-molla-pd-si-prepara-duello-renzi-barca-901731.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

Who the hell is Barca? Never heard before.

[RogueBeaver]

Who the hell is Barca? Never heard before.

Stefano Barca, the Bersanist heir apparent.

[Keystone Phil]

You're combining names, my friend. It's Fabrizio Barca, some minor minister that actually served in Monti's government. He was an Independent. The other person you're probably thinking of is Stefano Fassina.

Barca was the subject of a Wall Street Journal write up in January - http://blogs.wsj.com/eurocrisis/2013/01/11/italian-minister-says-he-is-cheering-for-bersani-not-monti/

He's clearly on the left wing as he was debating between joining PD or SEL.

[RogueBeaver]

My bad. Though the point remains that Bersanists are still delusionally stuck in ABR mode.

[Iannis]

I too get the impression that Phil is a secret admirer of Berlusconi, but won't dare admit it.

Yeah, that makes sense. I'm all about liking and defending only non-controversial figures.

It's not about being controversial. You full well realize that there is a difference between Santorum and Berlusconi. It is that one can support Santorum for, say, ideological reasons and stick be respectable, while supporting Berlusconi is incompatible with remaining on speaking terms with anyone, for whom "Western democracy" is moré tan an empty sound. You know it, and know why it is so. But you are tempted.

Claiming something like  "supporting Berlusconi is incompatible with remaining on speaking terms with anyone," is against all the elementary principles of democracy.
Unfortunately Berlusocni still represents the center-right in Italya and everyone has to deal with it, without pretending he doesn't exist, especially in this period of economic crisis.

[RogueBeaver]

Reports that Bersani will probably leave, Renzi laying the groundwork for taking the party leadership. Even Berlusconi's daughter Barbara said he'd be the better PD candidate.

http://www.giornalettismo.com/archives/856601/il-piano-di-renzi/

PD voters have realized their mistake: Renzi now pwns Bersani 66-10.


http://urbanpost.it/sondaggi-renzi-batte-bersani-66-a-10

[RogueBeaver]

Whoa: Bersani saying that he'd step aside if PD feels he's an impediment to forming government, will lead the party at least till its congress in a few weeks. If he does step aside, I'd at least thank him for putting the national and party interest above his own personal ambition.

[RogueBeaver]

PdL now saying that if Bersani won't go Grand- which he completely ruled out this morning- then there's no choice but a June election.

[Keystone Phil]

Bersani says the bid to form a government is now over.

[RogueBeaver]

According to Wiki the presidential election joint session must start no later than the 14th. Does anyone know who the candidates might be? PD is only a dozen votes short in the electoral college, so this shouldn't take long. Then the PD congress in 3 weeks, when the baton will either be passed or start moving that way.

[palandio]

Whoa: Bersani saying that he'd step aside if PD feels he's an impediment to forming government, will lead the party at least till its congress in a few weeks. If he does step aside, I'd at least thank him for putting the national and party interest above his own personal ambition.

From what I get Bersani is a "party soldier", who would put the interest of the traditionalist wing of his party above his personal ambition.

So for him there are the following scenarios:
1) he stays PD leader and eventually gets Presidente del Consiglio in a Grand Coalition -- would damage the PD brand, have to share government with Berlusconi, would help Grillo, not so good!
2) he stays PD leader, wins the next general election -- unlikely!
3) he stays PD leader, loses the next general election -- bad both for the party and its traditionalist wing!
4) Renzi gets PD leader and wins the next election -- good, at least for his party, which desperately wants to govern.
5) Renzi gets PD leader and loses the next election -- bad for the party as a whole, but at least it would weaken the PD modernists, and remember that a majority of core PD supporters (those that would turn out in the primaries) are left-leaning voters who might support Renzi only because of electability concerns.
6) A new left-leaning candidate like Barca or Fassina gets PD leader and wins the general election -- This is a relatively risky strategy. On the one hand Pisapia, De Magistris, Vendola, Zedda ecc. have shown that being a left-winger per se is not necessarily a liability when it comes to electability. On the other hand the people mentioned before have been elected before the big Grillo wave and if the new candidate becomes to closely tied to the apparatchik wing of the PD in the public opinion he could lose most of his appeal. (Remember though that many undecideds are not centrists.)
7) A new left-leaning candidate gets PD leader and loses the general election -- This would be an utter desaster for the PD left wing: General election lost, young, hopeful candidate burnt and probably right wing of the party in the pole position.

[RogueBeaver]

Either way very unlikely he leads the party for much longer. His best bet would be stepping aside for another leftist candidate and hoping that person wins. Doesn't seem likely for now.

Questions for the Italians: Will leadership be a topic at the PD congress in 3 weeks?

[palandio]

another leftist candidate

Bersani is culturally a representant of PCI orthodoxy. When it comes to ideology he is not so different from Renzi.

Fassina on the other is quite leftist.

A simple left-right spectrum would be insufficient to depict all PD factions and the difference between Renzi and Bersani. (Though it is true that most social democrats and socialists in the PD have supported Bersani.) If you have some knowledge of Italian you might take a look at the Wikipedia entry "Correnti del Partito Democratico" (fancy!).

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, I know. Their candidate doesn't necessarily share their views, that's what I was saying in shorthand. Bersani offered to meet with Berlusconi but Alfano said no because the only real reason to talk was grand coalition, which PD has wisely refused. When do the 10 Wise Men report?

[SPQR]

Berlusconi will never run against Renzi (a charismatic candidate half his age),so any poll as of now is worthless.

M5S's behaviour keeps on being close to ridicolous, saying no to EVERYTHING.
On the other side, PDL trying to appear as the "responsible party" after having occupied Milan's Palace of Justice, and after promising to give back IMU cash to all citizens...and after the last 20 years,it's pretty damn pathetic.

[RogueBeaver]

The poll was a hypothetical primary rematch between Bersani and Renzi, not a general election matchup. Otherwise agreed that polls aren't too valuable right now.

M5S: They're a protest party. As for PdL, they're just being PdL.

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi's financial report for his foundation is out. Raised 865k Euros. Apparently he got 100k of that from a financial institution, which is causing some buzz. What exactly is Renzi's foundation about? Is this a fundraising organization? Not familiar with Italian campaign finance law.

http://corrierefiorentino.corriere.it/firenze/notizie/politica/2013/2-aprile-2013/a-renzi-100mila-euro-finanziere-serra-212456508727.shtml

[Antonio the Sixth]

This "wise men" pull by Napolitano is pretty pathetic, honestly. What the hell are they gonna do? Convince PD that PdL is not actually a bunch of thugs and can actually be acceptable coalition partners? Convince PdL to drop Berlusconi under the bus, which could easily open way to negotiations? None of this is gonna happen. Let's elect a left-wing, morally irreproachable President, and then go back to the polls. Hopefully with Renzi.

[RogueBeaver]

Pro forma, obviously. We still haven't heard of any presidential candidates proposed by either side.