Reports: Romney giving up on Pennsylvania (?!)

[Tender Branson]

Evidence is mounting that one traditional battleground state isn't a top target for the Romney campaign: Pennsylvania.

The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the Republican challenger's campaign outlined an array of states where it thinks it can reverse President Obama's victory from four years ago, primarily Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. The presentation, the paper reported, also included the names of six other states where Team Romney hopes to steal a win: Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

Not included on the list? The Keystone State, where Obama cruised to a 10-point triumph in 2008.
The article was just the latest indication Pennsylvania isn't a top target for the former Massachusetts governor's campaign, at least not at the general election's onset. At the beginning of May, the state's own GOP chairman, Rob Gleason, said Romney told him personally that he doubted he could win the state. Gleason didn't appear to disagree vehemently.

"I don't think anyone thinks we can carry Pennsylvania, I don't think even Romney thinks we can win Pennsylvania," he told The Allentown Morning Call.

The Romney campaign's initial ad buy, which includes a pair of television spots, also won't air in Pennsylvania (although to be fair, the spots are running in only four states - Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa, and he has visited the state twice since locking up the GOP nomination, according to the Hotline candidate schedule tracker).

Understanding why the GOP candidate might be skeptical about Pennsylvania isn't difficult. A Republican presidential nominee hasn't triumphed there since George H.W. Bush in 1988, and, as mentioned, Obama won easily there four years ago despite a heavy investment of time and money from the McCain campaign. The state has more than a million more registered Democrats than Republicans, and an early May poll from Quinnipiac University found the president leading over Romney 47 percent to 39 percent.

When the Romney campaign assesses the electoral map, other states, even traditionally blue ones, could look more appealing. Romney, for instance, grew up in Michigan, where his father served as governor, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's expected victory in his recall election next week might signal the Badger State is poised to turn red in the fall. The two men are also locked in a dead heat in a duo of key Mountain West states, Nevada and Colorado, according to an NBC/Marist poll released Thursday.

Romney's skepticism toward Pennsylvania shouldn't be taken as an indication of weakness in his campaign -- he can still easily reach 270 electoral votes without winning there. In fact, if Romney did beat Obama in Pennsylvania, it's a likely indication that he not only won the presidential election, but he did so in a landslide. But it's an interesting representation of the electoral map's shifting ground, swinging away from predominantly white states like Pennsylvania and toward new battlegrounds in more diverse states like Virginia and Colorado.

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/05/romney-down-on-the-keystone-st.php

[NVGonzalez]

Yet he's going for Michigan? Wow.

[tpfkaw]

That's a nonsensical campaign strategy; winning Penna makes it *much* easier to get to 270.  I'd guess either this story is false/exaggerated or they're really doing terribly with their internal polling.

Edit:  Also possible that their internal polling in Michigan is very good.

[The Mikado]

The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the Republican challenger's campaign outlined an array of states where it thinks it can reverse President Obama's victory from four years ago, primarily Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. The presentation, the paper reported, also included the names of six other states where Team Romney hopes to steal a win: Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

I decided to see what the result would be if Romney won back the four states he mentioned on his primary list but none of the ones on the secondary list.  Other changes from 2008 include me ceding Romney Indiana and that one Nebraska district, both of which I think Romney didn't mention because their reversion to R goes without saying.

Obama 272, Romney 266.

You know, when you need states on your secondary list to win, it's not a secondary list.

[Brittain33]

Yet he's going for Michigan? Wow.

He has to compete for his home state even if he won't win it. It would look terrible if he ditched it.

[Brittain33]

In 2012, does it matter if Romney "gives up" on a state? Sheldon Adelson or Foster Friess or some other gazillionaire can mount a Mitzkrieg attack on Obama on all the state's tv networks from Labor Day until Election Day.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the Republican challenger's campaign outlined an array of states where it thinks it can reverse President Obama's victory from four years ago, primarily Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. The presentation, the paper reported, also included the names of six other states where Team Romney hopes to steal a win: Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

I decided to see what the result would be if Romney won back the four states he mentioned on his primary list but none of the ones on the secondary list.  Other changes from 2008 include me ceding Romney Indiana and that one Nebraska district, both of which I think Romney didn't mention because their reversion to R goes without saying.

Obama 284, Romney 254.

You know, when you need states on your secondary list to win, it's not a secondary list.

Fixed.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Romney should be aiming for an exact copy of the 2000 map minus one of the trio of NV, CO, and NH.

The lack of PA is interesting but not surprising--it's a big and expensive state to campaign/run ads in, and it consistently votes 2-5 points more Democratic than the nation. Romney should make some strikes at PA to relieve pressure from more critical wins, but he shouldn't aim for a win; we know what happened when McCain neglected the whole country to focus on PA for two months.

[Torie]

Per The Mikado map, and assuming that NH has gone irredeemably "socialist" despite my expectations otherwise (maybe it is just too "Godless"), methinks Mittens is going to find that Des Moines is the fairest city in the land.  Heck maybe I can induce him to have a rally on my farm just down the road in Winterset. Maybe I should switch my registration to Winterset come to think of it (I could move into a little house currently vacant, which has a great view of the river, and is very private which makes it just perfect for me), and that way I could vote for Latham too, since Winterset is now in that CD, and get a "twofer." No I won't show him the pot plants on the spread next door. The Torie mans finds out everything; nothing can be hidden from him.

[Lambsbread]

Michigan's his home state, so he's probably going with the "local hero" factor.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Michigan's his home state, so he's probably going with the "local hero" factor.

Which is absolutely laughable, of course.

[Lambsbread]

Michigan's his home state, so he's probably going with the "local hero" factor.

Which is absolutely laughable, of course.

Then again it is Mitt Romney.

[cavalcade]

I would think PA would be more winnable than MI for a number of reasons (auto bailout, fracking/coal, slightly more Catholics, higher Appalachian hating of Obama than in 08), but I suppose they have polling and possibly focus groups that say otherwise.

You know, when you need states on your secondary list to win, it's not a secondary list.

The "primary" list is the states that they think Romney must win, and the "secondary" list is the states that Romney only needs one of as long as he sweeps the primary list.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Michigan's his home state

Which Mitt Romney are we talking again?

[Хahar 🤔]

It's interesting that New Mexico is so thoroughly Democratic now that Romney's not even going to try.

[Lambsbread]

Michigan's his home state

Which Mitt Romney are we talking again?

Detroit-sympathetic Mitt.

[Donerail]

Michigan's his home state

Which Mitt Romney are we talking again?

Detroit-sympathetic Mitt.

Let-Detroit-Go-Bankrupt edition?

[The Mikado]

The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the Republican challenger's campaign outlined an array of states where it thinks it can reverse President Obama's victory from four years ago, primarily Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. The presentation, the paper reported, also included the names of six other states where Team Romney hopes to steal a win: Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

I decided to see what the result would be if Romney won back the four states he mentioned on his primary list but none of the ones on the secondary list.  Other changes from 2008 include me ceding Romney Indiana and that one Nebraska district, both of which I think Romney didn't mention because their reversion to R goes without saying.

Obama 284, Romney 254.

You know, when you need states on your secondary list to win, it's not a secondary list.

Fixed.

You clearly didn't read my post, I said I was ceding Indiana and the Nebraska district to Romney because I was working under the assumption that Romney was taking their return to the GOP fold for granted (as, indeed, most people do).

[Cory]

He has to compete for his home state even if he won't win it. It would look terrible if he ditched it.

So we can assume he will be campaigning in Massachusetts? Oh wait, lol.

[Niemeyerite]

I don't think it's a good strategy to give up on PA in MAY. When did McCain give up on Michigan? If I recall, it was on late September... Before that, after GOP convention, I remember some polls showed a tied race in MI, MN, PA and IA. Everything can happen. If Romney wants to win, he has to campaign in PA at least until October.

[greenforest32]

The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the Republican challenger's campaign outlined an array of states where it thinks it can reverse President Obama's victory from four years ago, primarily Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. The presentation, the paper reported, also included the names of six other states where Team Romney hopes to steal a win: Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

I decided to see what the result would be if Romney won back the four states he mentioned on his primary list but none of the ones on the secondary list.  Other changes from 2008 include me ceding Romney Indiana and that one Nebraska district, both of which I think Romney didn't mention because their reversion to R goes without saying.

Obama 272, Romney 266.

You know, when you need states on your secondary list to win, it's not a secondary list.

Perhaps he's counting on the GOP trifecta in Pennsylvania to revive their proposal of switching to awarding PA's EC votes by congressional district? Not that I see him winning Virginia and Ohio at this point.

[Lincoln Republican]

Anymore jobs creation numbers like the ones that came out this week and Romney moves  into being competetive in Pennsylvania.

[Nichlemn]

PA is unlikely to be the decisive state, but then again neither is AZ or MO and as far as I knew Democrats aren't criticising Obama for competing there.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I would think PA would be more winnable than MI for a number of reasons (auto bailout, fracking/coal, slightly more Catholics, higher Appalachian hating of Obama than in 08)

White Catholics are much more Democratic than white Protestants, and PA is also a strong manufacturing state.

[Torie]

I would think PA would be more winnable than MI for a number of reasons (auto bailout, fracking/coal, slightly more Catholics, higher Appalachian hating of Obama than in 08)

White Catholics are much more Democratic than white Protestants, and PA is also a strong manufacturing state.

I tend to doubt that, if you exclude the South, which skews things. Of course, the divide between evangelical Protestants and mainliners is probably more dramatic, than white Protestant versus Catholic politically. It would be interesting to research that actually.

Anyway, the odds are low that PA will be at the mean national average or leaning Pub. In other words, if Mittens wins PA, he most probably will not have needed to win it to hit the magic 270.