MSNBC/Marist has Obama & Romney basically tied in CO, NV & IA

[Tender Branson]

IOWA:

44-44 tie

COLORADO:

46-45 Obama

NEVADA:

48-46 Obama

...

Asked which candidate would do a better job on the economy, respondents in Colorado (45 percent to 42 percent) and Iowa (46 percent to 41 percent) picked Romney over Obama. But the two men were tied in Nevada (44 percent to 44 percent).

The NBC-Marist poll also shows that Obama’s approval rating is above water in Iowa (46 percent approve, 45 percent disapprove), and it’s underwater in Colorado (45 percent to 49 percent) and Nevada (46 percent to 47 percent)

And in Nevada’s competitive Senate contest, the survey finds incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller in a tight race with Democrat Shelley Berkley, with Heller getting 46 percent among registered voters and Berkley getting 44 percent.

These NBC-Marist polls were conducted May 22-24 by landline and cell phone of 1,030 registered voters in Colorado, 1,106 registered voters in Iowa and 1,040 registered voters in Nevada. The margin of error in all three surveys is plus-minus 3.0 percentage points.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/31/11983819-nbc-marist-polls-obama-romney-deadlocked-in-three-key-states?lite

[Tender Branson]

Here are the crosstabs:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/531-obama-and-romney-tied-in-iowa

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/531-obama-and-romney-vie-for-lead-in-colorado

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/531-obama-and-romney-neck-and-neck-in-nevada

Samples are:

IA: 35 R, 34 D, 31 I
CO: 35 R, 31 D, 34 I
NV: 40 D, 38 R, 22 I

By party:

IA: Dems: 82-11 Obama, GOP: 83-10 Romney, Indies: 42-38 Obama
CO: Dems: 88-6 Obama, GOP: 86-7 Romney, Indies: 48-38 Obama
NV: Dems: 82-11 Obama, GOP: 88-9 Romney, Indies: 50-39 Obama

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/IApolls/IA120522/General%20Election%202012/2012%20Presidential%20Tossup_IARegistered%20Voters%20with%20Leaners.pdf

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/COpolls/CO120522/General%20Election%202012/2012%20Presidential%20Tossup_CO%20Registered%20Voters%20with%20Leaners.pdf

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NVpolls/NV120522/General%20Election%202012/2012%20Presidential%20Tossup_NV%20Registered%20Voters%20with%20Leaners.pdf

[krazen1211]

3 Historically competitive states are competitive.

Well, I guess the state polls are lining up with the national polls. Aside from some Colorado +13 Junk Polling.

[backtored]

The idea that Colorado was lost to the GOP was one of the worst ideas of the last four years.  Only slightly less egregious than Obamacare and the HHS mandate.

[President von Cat]

Samples are:

IA: 35 R, 34 D, 31 I
CO: 35 R, 31 D, 34 I
NV: 40 D, 38 R, 22 I

That R+1 Iowa sample looks fair, given that '08 turnout was D+1. Same for Colorado sample, which is R+4 in this poll, but was R+1 in '08. Nevada was D+8 in '08, and is only D+2 in this poll. But to be fair, 2004 turnout in Nevada was R+4.

These polls have to be good news for Mitt Romney considering that Obama won all three of these states by no less than 9 points in '08.

Surprised to see Iowa and Nevada so competitive.

I look at it as the other way. Obama basically leads in states that Bush won twice, after what way well be his worst month since the debt debate.

Romney has basically had a great month, winning the nomination, enjoying basically no negative coverage or gaffes, and yet he's not opening up leads anywhere in states that have a history of being more R than D.

[DrScholl]

The thing to look at is where Romney is stuck at in most of these polls, which is 44-46% and some times lower and that doesn't seem to really changing.

[President von Cat]

The thing to look at is where Romney is stuck at in most of these polls, which is 44-46% and some times lower and that doesn't seem to really changing.

I expect this to be the next "story" of the campaign, the media will need something new to hype up soon.

[krazen1211]

Samples are:

IA: 35 R, 34 D, 31 I
CO: 35 R, 31 D, 34 I
NV: 40 D, 38 R, 22 I

That R+1 Iowa sample looks fair, given that '08 turnout was D+1. Same for Colorado sample, which is R+4 in this poll, but was R+1 in '08. Nevada was D+8 in '08, and is only D+2 in this poll. But to be fair, 2004 turnout in Nevada was R+4.

These polls have to be good news for Mitt Romney considering that Obama won all three of these states by no less than 9 points in '08.

Surprised to see Iowa and Nevada so competitive.

I look at it as the other way. Obama basically leads in states that Bush won twice, after what way well be his worst month since the debt debate.

Romney has basically had a great month, winning the nomination, enjoying basically no negative coverage or gaffes, and yet he's not opening up leads anywhere in states that have a history of being more R than D.

Iowa is actually a Dem leaning state for the past several elections.

[NVGonzalez]

I would love to see the demographics % polled in NV however I suspect that 80% support from Democrats will go up pretty soon after the convention to the high 80's at least.

[backtored]

The thing to look at is where Romney is stuck at in most of these polls, which is 44-46% and some times lower and that doesn't seem to really changing.

That's something an incumbent worries about.  What these polls show is that Romney has a lot of room to grow.  People who don't want to vote for the president will either vote for the challenger or stay home, they won't change their mind and just vote for President Obama.  That's why an incumbent who can't get over 50% in polling signals big trouble for that campaign.  If Romney is at 44 percent in October, then he'll worry.  But 44% in May/June--and ties in key swing states--is hardly a bad sign.

[timothyinMD]

The thing to look at is where Romney is stuck at in most of these polls, which is 44-46% and some times lower and that doesn't seem to really changing.

Actually the thing to look at is Obama, who performed very well in all three of these states, winning each with the largest percentage taken by the winner since 1988.. is doing so badly

Obama is down TEN in Iowa, EIGHT in Colorado and SEVEN in Nevada
Romney is up THREE in Nevada from '08, and dead on in IA and CO, and all three of those McCain performances are the floor for Repubs in those states. Romney has plenty of growing room

What particularly strikes me is a week ago, NBC/Marist released FL, Ohio, Va.. and all showed Obama ahead 4-6%..  Now Florida, Ohio, Virginia are the 'easier' states for Romney to take back, and Nevada, Iowa, Colorado are supposedly the 'harder' ones.. yet Romney has Obama tied essentially in all three.  This shows momentum in Romney's favor in just the last week

[milhouse24]

The thing to look at is where Romney is stuck at in most of these polls, which is 44-46% and some times lower and that doesn't seem to really changing.

That's something an incumbent worries about.  What these polls show is that Romney has a lot of room to grow.  People who don't want to vote for the president will either vote for the challenger or stay home, they won't change their mind and just vote for President Obama.  That's why an incumbent who can't get over 50% in polling signals big trouble for that campaign.  If Romney is at 44 percent in October, then he'll worry.  But 44% in May/June--and ties in key swing states--is hardly a bad sign.

Yeah, there is an enthusiasm gap.  The liberal media keeps ignoring the fact that many Obama supporters like college students under 30 are going to be pissed about the economy and not having jobs, and they will stay home.  Black who do not support gay marriage may also choose to stay home, or even not care as much since history was already made in 2008 with the first black president, so there is less motivation to vote again. 

Romney also has an enthusiasm gap, and that may improve depending on who he picks for VP.  Romney has more room to grow his supporters, than Obama.  Obama definitely has a ceiling right now. 

With Obama supporting gay marriage, and taking more political risks, and taking more risky political strategies, I fully expect him to replace Joe Biden as VP, during the convention, if his poll numbers show him losing to Romney at that point.  He will select a woman as VP, maybe even a gay woman, just to spice up the enthusiasm. 

[backtored]

The thing to look at is where Romney is stuck at in most of these polls, which is 44-46% and some times lower and that doesn't seem to really changing.

Actually the thing to look at is Obama, who performed very well in all three of these states, winning each with the largest percentage taken by the winner since 1988.. is doing so badly

Obama is down TEN in Iowa, EIGHT in Colorado and SEVEN in Nevada
Romney is up THREE in Nevada from '08, and dead on in IA and CO, and all three of those McCain performances are the floor for Repubs in those states. Romney has plenty of growing room

What particularly strikes me is a week ago, NBC/Marist released FL, Ohio, Va.. and all showed Obama ahead 4-6%..  Now Florida, Ohio, Virginia are the 'easier' states for Romney to take back, and Nevada, Iowa, Colorado are supposedly the 'harder' ones.. yet Romney has Obama tied essentially in all three.  This shows momentum in Romney's favor in just the last week

I've always thought that Colorado and maybe Iowa would be easier to win than Ohio and Virginia.  The problem is that they're also considerably smaller and, thus, less electorally robust.

[timothyinMD]

The thing to look at is where Romney is stuck at in most of these polls, which is 44-46% and some times lower and that doesn't seem to really changing.

Actually the thing to look at is Obama, who performed very well in all three of these states, winning each with the largest percentage taken by the winner since 1988.. is doing so badly

Obama is down TEN in Iowa, EIGHT in Colorado and SEVEN in Nevada
Romney is up THREE in Nevada from '08, and dead on in IA and CO, and all three of those McCain performances are the floor for Repubs in those states. Romney has plenty of growing room

What particularly strikes me is a week ago, NBC/Marist released FL, Ohio, Va.. and all showed Obama ahead 4-6%..  Now Florida, Ohio, Virginia are the 'easier' states for Romney to take back, and Nevada, Iowa, Colorado are supposedly the 'harder' ones.. yet Romney has Obama tied essentially in all three.  This shows momentum in Romney's favor in just the last week

I've always thought that Colorado and maybe Iowa would be easier to win than Ohio and Virginia.  The problem is that they're also considerably smaller and, thus, less electorally robust.

I wasn't saying I believe that, but that's been the mantra so far.

I think Iowa will be easy to win back, but I believe the easiest to take from Obama (ex. Neb CD 2) are IN, then FL, NC, IA

[Torie]

If these polls are accurate, this will be a major alarm for the Obama campaign. One needs to look at the demographics of the undecideds, but Dick Morris may have a point although he over hypes it, that undecideds all things being equal tend to break against the incumbent, unless the demographics are skewed.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If these polls are accurate, this will be a major alarm for the Obama campaign. One needs to look at the demographics of the undecideds, but Dick Morris may have a point although he over hypes it, that undecideds all things being equal tend to break against the incumbent, unless the demographics are skewed.

Morris was the one who suggested the undecideds in 2008 would break for McCain... I know no incumbent... but his analysis is pretty much wrong... and suits whoever is paying him.

People listen to this blow-hard why?

http://www.dickmorris.com/undecideds-should-break-for-mccain/

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Morris also said that AR leaned Dem in October of 2008, that Romney would never get nominated in 2012, and he corrected Alan Colmes' correct answer with the wrong one with regards to who Fred Thompson succeeded in the Senate (yea, I realize it was five years ago, but I find it to be funny. )

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

If these polls are accurate, this will be a major alarm for the Obama campaign. One needs to look at the demographics of the undecideds, but Dick Morris may have a point although he over hypes it, that undecideds all things being equal tend to break against the incumbent, unless the demographics are skewed.

The same phenomena that propelled President Kerry to victory in Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio in 2004!

[AmericanNation]

0) Take NC off the table.
1) East Path = FL, VA, OH. = 30% shade green
2) West Path = NV, CO, IA? = 40% ' '
3) Rust Path = WI, PA  = 50%-60%
4) Jugular = NJ , MI = 80%

1 through 3 look pretty good for Romney.   

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

0) Take NC off the table.
1) East Path = FL, VA, OH. = 30% shade green
2) West Path = NV, CO, IA? = 40% ' '
3) Rust Path = WI, PA  = 50%
4) Haymaker = NJ , MI = 80%

1 through 3 look pretty good. 

What? Why are NH and that ME district blue? Why are PA, NJ, and MI green?

[Torie]

If these polls are accurate, this will be a major alarm for the Obama campaign. One needs to look at the demographics of the undecideds, but Dick Morris may have a point although he over hypes it, that undecideds all things being equal tend to break against the incumbent, unless the demographics are skewed.

Morris was the one who suggested the undecideds in 2008 would break for McCain... I know no incumbent... but his analysis is pretty much wrong... and suits whoever is paying him.

People listen to this blow-hard why?

http://www.dickmorris.com/undecideds-should-break-for-mccain/

We had the Lehman meltdown. I actually switched my preference from McCain to Obama.  I was never undecided, I just switched. So sure, events can matter. The issue is where some game changer does not occur.

[AmericanNation]

What? Why are NH and that ME district blue? Why are PA, NJ, and MI green?

fine...

PA,NJ,MI are the least likely to swing to Romney, but are in the realm of possibility.   

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

What? Why are NH and that ME district blue? Why are PA, NJ, and MI green?

fine...

PA,NJ,MI are the least likely to swing to Romney, but are in the realm of possibility.   

Oh. That makes much more sense.

[TJ in Oregon]

Dick Morris has predicted a Republican 'tsunami' more times than Professor Trelawney predicted Harry Potter's death. It's something between hypnosis and entertainment at this point.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

In all fairness, Harry sort of died.